Will Russia Become a New Superpower?
- Thread starter soulman
- Start date
You're the second person to mention the population decline. I vaguely remember a while back that there was talk of Russia offering small chunks of land to people if they they built on and farmed the land within so many years. But I do wonder how many outsiders would want to move to Russia. Are there any reliable figures on population decline and reasons why?
As for the rest well you can look at the US and say the same at the moment.
I didn't say it would be a good thing. I said it would be ironic.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Yes. Them and China could have the world by the balls if they worked together within about twenty years I reckon.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
in every great power that's ever existed, there has still been substantial poverty within its' borders. the two can, do coexist, and always have
hipipol
Peckham Wry
It almost impossible for Russia to remain as weak as it has been for the last couple of decades, as to the World power stuff, not so sure.
India doesn't actually want world power status it seems to me, for which I think the deserve massive respect - they do believe in making their country an economic power but I dont any desire for projecting military force on a gloabl basis. Still give it 50 years, that may change
China on the other hand is big on the military power bollocks and the way the place is run they have every chance of being a World Power
I wish that theis Power biz would just fuck off, it just fucks things up for everyone
India doesn't actually want world power status it seems to me, for which I think the deserve massive respect - they do believe in making their country an economic power but I dont any desire for projecting military force on a gloabl basis. Still give it 50 years, that may change
China on the other hand is big on the military power bollocks and the way the place is run they have every chance of being a World Power
I wish that theis Power biz would just fuck off, it just fucks things up for everyone
kyser_soze
Hawking's Angry Eyebrow
Define 'superpower', which no one has managed yet
BRIC are going to run into several major and massive issues that didn't really affect the US/EU period of industrialisation, or did but on a smaller scale.
China and India still have massive peasant populations, and will for the foreseeable future.
They also both have horrifying environmental issues, now and being stored up for the future. I read a report last week of how the region of China responsible for 25% of it's rice is turning into a dustbowl, similar to the problems the US had in the 1930s - that's a 1/4 of it's staple food dissappearing. Anyone think that's not going to cause a few issues to a nascent superpower?
India is the same - it's got a wider disparity between peasant and urban dweller, and has similar environmental issues to China
Russia could blow it's primary resources and make a ton of money and not reinvest that money into 2ndary and tertiary industry - when the oil runs out in Saudi there's not a lot there to replace it as an industry, and the same could happen in Russia
Don't know enough about Brazil...
BRIC are going to run into several major and massive issues that didn't really affect the US/EU period of industrialisation, or did but on a smaller scale.
China and India still have massive peasant populations, and will for the foreseeable future.
They also both have horrifying environmental issues, now and being stored up for the future. I read a report last week of how the region of China responsible for 25% of it's rice is turning into a dustbowl, similar to the problems the US had in the 1930s - that's a 1/4 of it's staple food dissappearing. Anyone think that's not going to cause a few issues to a nascent superpower?
India is the same - it's got a wider disparity between peasant and urban dweller, and has similar environmental issues to China
Russia could blow it's primary resources and make a ton of money and not reinvest that money into 2ndary and tertiary industry - when the oil runs out in Saudi there's not a lot there to replace it as an industry, and the same could happen in Russia
Don't know enough about Brazil...
hipipol
Peckham Wry
A power which can project overwhelming force to any part of the planet, which recieves almost universal acceptance of that power and as such rarely has to use it on major scale, as others bend to their will without it, simply because of that knowledge of its power
Or something like that.
kyser_soze
Hawking's Angry Eyebrow
So nothing whatsoever to do with economics then? Only military power?
hipipol
Peckham Wry
Only to a point re economics
The USSR was never a real economic power, but it was a Superpower
Most likely? This is like the population argument. There's nothing concrete to back it up. Or is there?
Now that's an ironic overload
they never stopped being a superpower
david dissadent
New Member
Link
The first peak was for the old super giants like the almighty Samotlor peaked in the mid 80s with primary recovery technologies. In the 90s and 00s western oil technology was brought in to raise production again after the horrible decline experianced. The sort of low tech secondary recovery technologies used by russian oil and gas companies like water flooding was not really doing the trick. So all the nifty 3D siemography, horozontal wells and enhanced water and gas drive techonologies were brought in. Now those old giants are again in decline and not enough new fields have been brough online to overcome this. The new fields coming online include
So basicaly Russia is going to have one hell of a job keeping up production at above 9 million barrels a day. Most likely it will be experiancing decline in oil production. Especialy as projects like Sakhalin II are very expensive due to enviromental difficulties and given the basement oil price no one is going to be investing big money into new high cost fields on melting tundra for while.
As for Russias population
Google has all the answers you need
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/988723.stm
Its a long established fact they are in population decline.
As for Russias population
Google has all the answers you need
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/988723.stm
Its a long established fact they are in population decline.
Leaving aside the oil question for now. As I mentioned above, and the BBC article you quoted seems to bear this out, the population decline is as a result of an inadequate system of health care for the population. This, along with other market led 'solutions', has left people feeling that they have no future.
david dissadent
New Member
The countries with the worst health care systems in the world have amoung the highest population growths.
What about countries which see a steady decline in their health care systems from let's say 'first world' to 'third world'.
david dissadent
New Member
Russias problems stem from low fertility rates (mothers having less babies) not from infant mortality.
The causes of the low fertility rates are probibly related to the general pessimism of Russian women though.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
Must admit I agree with this been here 2 months so far this year and its easy to see why people are pessimistic. Yesterday someone for the first time here actually smiled back at me (was a baby in a pram that I was waving at and generally playing the clown for), even the mother just scowled at me as if I was teaching the kid bad habits.
likesfish
You can't park here sir
The USA may be a shite super power but its democratic and Obama won't be George bush. The other would be super powers don't bade well for the earth.
china runs over students with tanks
Russian journalists commit suicide a bit too frequently
I wish the EU could get its act together just so that the USA is not the only player in town that considers democracy an the rule of law vital
china runs over students with tanks
Russian journalists commit suicide a bit too frequently
I wish the EU could get its act together just so that the USA is not the only player in town that considers democracy an the rule of law vital
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
well post-British empires just don't have the moral fibre to see out more than a century
*stiffens upper lip and glances nervously over at China*
lobster
Well-Known Member
I wonder if that will result a revolution or voting for someone different .
Russia will be a power but not a superpower, certainly nothing comparable to the US. Their current resurgence is based on the incredibly high oil price, now thats falling back I think they're going to be a little less belligerent.
India is an interesting one, they need some incredible rate of growth just to stand still (something like 8% I think) because of the high population growth.
India is an interesting one, they need some incredible rate of growth just to stand still (something like 8% I think) because of the high population growth.
I've no idea. It might result in either, or it could mean a turning back to the pre 1989 model.
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