Will Brown go? THE SWEEPSTAKE

[elbows]

Miliband coming out in support of Brown probably prolongs Gordons tenure.

 

[elbows]

Oh and Mandy, Darling, Straw & Johnson are standing by Gordon at the moment too, so it doesnt look like he will fail to find a new cabinet.

 

[bluestreak]

If he goes it will be Wednesday. Wednesdays are always the shittest day at work.

 

[Badger Kitten]

The BBC has been blinded by the reshuffle. The headlines are now all about who is coming and going, rather than Brown's position. So, in the short term, it may have paid off.

Not any more. The headlines have changed from Johnson is Home Secretary to...

Guardian: Gordon Brown's reshuffle in crisis as John Hutton Quits
Torygraph ' John Hutton resigns forcing pressure on Gordon Brown
Times: John Hutton follows James Purnell as Brown's Cabinet disintergrates
Mail: Brown faces open mutiny as FOURTH Cabinet Minsiter quites and Darling refuses to budge in reshuffle fiasco.

So that's the wheels off the eye-catching narrative reshuffle inititative

 

[Stoat Boy]

Miliband coming out in support of Brown probably prolongs Gordons tenure.

Or else positions him for being able to come forward, with great reluctance, when Brown is forced out.

Purnells resignation was no spur of the moment thing. It has to be part of a thought out and cohesive effort to get rid of Brown. And this would imply that they have somebody nominated as their would be successor.

I think its Miliband. If he does get it then Purnell comes back into the Cabinet, maybe as foreign secretary and has done his job. If Brown survives until the next election, which many in Labour have conceded as lost no matter what, then he will go and Milliband can step forward and show himself as the party loyalist.

 

[butchersapron]

This is not a sweepstake. Sorry , had to be said.

 

[elbows]

Or else positions him for being able to come forward, with great reluctance, when Brown is forced out.

Yes what youve said is probably true but all the same, the quickest exit for Gordon would have been if he had failed to find enough people to stay in cabinet, and it looks like his has dodged that pitfall.

Do you think there is any truth to the idea that the appearance of loyalty and unity is taken more seriously by Labour than the Tories? We always hear in the press about how easily the Tories end up divided and fighting in the past, maybe Labour has different instincts or would punish the unloyal more severely?

 

[butchersapron]

I think it's not true. It's the same dynamics at play in what is now the same situation as the tories. In the old days when there was a union feed, there might possibly have been a case where even big hitters were reliant on outside forces. Not today.

 

[Badger Kitten]

Well, sweepstake sounds more exciting.

All this reshuffling is just the last throw of the dice; he wanted to do the reshuffle on Monday to stop the awful election results being the main headlines. Now that he's had to jump early, Monday will be election wipeout news all day and after a weekend of feverish speculation and all the Sunday and Saturday papers slagging him off, he could go middle of next week. Because what else does he have left in the tank? Worst results in Labour history, could lose every single council seat, BNP in Europe, and that will be the de facto mandate on his leadership, and surely then he will have to just go, or be pushed.

 

[danny la rouge]

All this reshuffling is just the last throw of the dice; he wanted to do the reshuffle on Monday to stop the awful election results being the main headlines. Now that he's had to jump early

He also wanted Balls in Number 11, but Darling refused to go to another job, so he had to keep him.

Broon's jaicket is on a shoogily peg.

 

[butchersapron]

Horrible sort of limbo now - he's, once more, in the situation of having to do something or wait. He made the wrong choice last time - not sure there is a right choice this time.

 

[elbows]

could lose every single council seat

You mean control over every council rather than every seat?

 

[belboid]

could lose every single council seat

bit tricky that as they've already won 20. They could well lose control of every council that's up, tho I think they'll just hang on in Derbyshire

 

[Badger Kitten]

You mean control over every council rather than every seat?

yes, sorry. Meant could lose control of every council.

 

[Badger Kitten]

Worst for Labour, best for the Tories: Brown stays as PM but bottles out of moving Darling. The result: a lame duck PM and a lame duck Chancellor. The Tories would love facing a Chancellor who clearly doesn’t have the confidence of the Prime Minister and a Prime Minister who was too weak to reshuffle as he wanted to.

Best for Labour, worst for the Tories: Brown is forced out as the Cabinet reshuffle collapses around him. Alan Johnson is crowned Labour leader and easily puts together a Cabinet with jobs for Balls and other prominent Brownites as well as returns for some of the talent on the Labour backbenches. The departure of Brown presents Labour with one last chance to reconnect with the electorate.

If we end up with Brown as PM and Balls as Chancellor, I think we’re on the same political trajectory as now: heading for a Labour defeat and a decent Tory majority. If we have the Lame Duck Ministry then we could be heading for a spectacular Tory win.

.

 

[Stoat Boy]

Yes what youve said is probably true but all the same, the quickest exit for Gordon would have been if he had failed to find enough people to stay in cabinet, and it looks like his has dodged that pitfall.

Do you think there is any truth to the idea that the appearance of loyalty and unity is taken more seriously by Labour than the Tories? We always hear in the press about how easily the Tories end up divided and fighting in the past, maybe Labour has different instincts or would punish the unloyal more severely?

I think in the pre-new Labour days it was more a case of having more groups of people having a say in Labour than the Conservative Party. The Parliamentary Conservative Party have not always enjoyed a great relationship with what could be called the Constituancy Conservative Party whose members have never fully forgiven it for stabbing the great Lady in the back but now, as BA has said, times have changed.

But as I understand if they want to force Brown to go that still requires the Unions imput and thats where it could all go a little bit funny for those wanting him out. I dont know enough (actually nothing at all) about how the main Unions would want to square up but I cannot imagine many NL candidates for Browns job wanting to have to go cap in hand to them.

 

[belboid]

But as I understand if they want to force Brown to go that still requires the Unions imput and thats where it could all go a little bit funny for those wanting him out. I dont know enough (actually nothing at all) about how the main Unions would want to square up but I cannot imagine many NL candidates for Browns job wanting to have to go cap in hand to them.

only three unions really matter in this instance - Unite, GMB & Unison. GMB would prefer Johnson to Brown, Unison will stick with Gordon (tho they will fac some pressure to support his removal, considering the current attacks on the public sector) and unite will be split between Simpson (defnitely pro-Brown) and Woodley 9would rather brown goes but will see how the wind is blowing).

 

[danny la rouge]

Paul Kenny, the GMB leader, says "It's obvious now the coup is on. We will not be leaping to the support of Mr Purnell. We want a party led by people driven by principles and not by chauffeurs."

 

[butchersapron]

Paul Kenny, the GMB leader, says "It's obvious now the coup is on. We will not be leaping to the support of Mr Purnell. We want a party led by people driven by principles and not by chauffeurs."

Good enough for you and your 'buisiness' though paul.

 

[belboid]

nice quote.

That's him backing Johnson then

 

[Dan U]

alan fucking sugar

 

[danny la rouge]

nice quote.

That's him backing Johnson then

Looks that way.

 

[belboid]

no union leader (well, LP affiliated union leader) will put the knife in before the parliamentary party has already stabbed GB to death already, but that seems to be getting closer and closer. Megg Munn doing the stabbing now

 

[danny la rouge]

no union leader (well, LP affiliated union leader) will put the knife in before the parliamentary party has already stabbed GB to death already, but that seems to be getting closer and closer. Megg Munn doing the stabbing now

It's instructive that Kenny didn't say "this attempted coup" or that it "mustn't succeed" but that it's now on.

 

[Woollyredhat]

IMO he ain't going anywhere. The economy seems to be recovering a bit and no way is he going to let someone else take the credit for his hard work.

Green shoots of recovery and all that.

The last recession had a bit of surge before crashing down again. I mean, for a recession that was supposedly so deep, it is recovering awfully quickly.

 

[trevhagl]

he'l be gone on monday, pressure will build up over the weekend...

jilted john will play through his resignation speech

i dreamt it ... it will happen

I wonder what Mr Fellows woulda sang about PURNELL?

 

[Paulie Tandoori]

McNulty has resigned now, its like rats leaving a sinking ship....

 

[Balbi]

'if i thought i wasn't the right person, with the right team, able to lead this country, i would not be here'.

Yes you bog eyed fucktard, you believe in you - no-one bloody else does

 

[danny la rouge]

He's giving it "strength, determination and character" and "I will not walk away".

WALK AWAY YOU CUNT.

 

[elbows]

Gordon is having a press conference, is predictably sticking to his guns, not going anywhere at the moment.