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Why the tories will lose the next election?

MikeMcc said:
Is the solution to stick our fingers in our ears and shout 'la la la, I can't hear you!' then. Something has to be done about public spending, across the board. Both parties are committed to increasing the retirement age and bringing women into line with men, the Tories are just saying it needs to be done faster because of the state of our present financial position.

Whoever gets in power is going to have to make unpopular decisions, like reforming public service pensions, where to make cuts, whose jobs are going to have to go. Whatever sector takes a hit will lead to follow on issues. I would imagine a relatively popular one here would be to clobber defense, except that would lead to job losses in the arms manufacturers and their suppliers.
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ok here's some quick fix unpopular descisons which would save consdierable cash.

1 stop the war.
Sound simple enough but actually we could cut military sending considerably by further removing the main army and replacing it with smaller units of SAS/SBS type groupings which need few men and few resources.
2 Scrap trident.
It's an ego boosting thing anyway we don't need one and have no use for it in the event of a nuclear attack we are intending what to ruin whatever will be left of the other part of the planet too?
3 Maximum Working week of 16 hours with pay levels to be maintained at a living wage level of 35,000 per year.
4 Legalise all drugs. Tax them and use this cash to pay for addiction problems
5 Let alsyum seekers and refugees work until their visa applications are decided. In cases where there may be suprious claims to remain evaluate the level of contribution based on the amount and type of work done. They help out and muck in they stay as a valuable contributor to the country those who don't don't...
6 Scrap PFI and PPP, which no compensation to the companies who took part or their shareholders.
7 nationalise power water transport inc rail.
8 Scrap tutition Fees, bring back grants.
9 Scrap income taxation of all kinds including national insurance for anyone earning less than £25,000.


All of which would give a sufficient surplus to the states coffers and would be significantly unpopular just not with the general public. but with the stock exchange... who frankly we can afford to be unpopular with anyway...

It depends how serious they are about taking unpopular actions.
 
Do whatever the population of the country would like to do with the finance industry. Low interest rates? High interest rates? Whatever. But democratically accountable and directed for the benefits of those who use and need a service rather than shareholders.
 
In Garfs list stopping the war and getting rid of Trident seem like no brainers. The war is ruinously expensive and we're told by military types isn't going to be won anyway without lots more soldiers/resources which we haven't got.

Trident has to be amongst the most useless and expensive things anyone has built anywhere ever. If they must they could keep one, sort of medicore nuke and a few planes dotted about the place and the claim of being a nuclear power is intact.
 
FreddyB said:
In Garfs list stopping the war and getting rid of Trident seem like no brainers. The war is ruinously expensive and we're told by military types isn't going to be won anyway without lots more soldiers/resources which we haven't got.

Trident has to be amongst the most useless and expensive things anyone has built anywhere ever. If they must they could keep one, sort of medicore nuke and a few planes dotted about the place and the claim of being a nuclear power is intact.
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my point was rather that prats wax lyrical about having to make unpopular choices as though there's no other fat to be trimmed from the already scant budget.

They are all wrong.

There's things which I've illustrated which could even at current levels mean a surplus in treasury income.

Thing is no ones got the balls to do it...

Certainly not anyone in the exisitng parties...

I kinda wish there was a functioning pirate party in this country ...
 
glenquagmire said:
Median wage for UK full-time employees last year was about £25,000.
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And?

A living wage not a median wage.

The median is squewed by people who earn £100,000+ and also reduced again by those that earn less than 6,000.

If people earned a living wage of £35,000 then they would have surplus cash which would then be either saved or put back into the economy.
 
I suppose we'll just have to wait and see what the other parties come up with and see who has the better plan. Everyone is talking about cuts, cuts are going to happen.
 
FreddyB said:
Trident has to be amongst the most useless and expensive things anyone has built anywhere ever.
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Not useless from the point of view of the ruling class. I recently met someone who is an engineer on submarine nuclear reactors. His answer to why we need nukes was that it guarantees a seat at the 'top table', ie the UN security council for the UK. If that's to be believed the spend on Trident is like a hefty club fee to a body that gives legitimacy to the actions of the ruling class internationally. Useless and a waste of money to those of us with no interest in invading coutries and making millions from whatever benefits flow to corporations from having friendly regimes installed tho
 
GarfieldLeChat said:
And?

A living wage not a median wage.

The median is squewed by people who earn £100,000+ and also reduced again by those that earn less than 6,000.

If people earned a living wage of £35,000 then they would have surplus cash which would then be either saved or put back into the economy.
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Surely the median is a lot less skewed than the mean by people who earn the extremes. Isn't that the whole point of using the median rather than the mean?

OK, my maths is a bit rusty.
 
Paul Russell said:
Surely the median is a lot less skewed than the mean by people who earn the extremes. Isn't that the whole point of using the median rather than the mean?

OK, my maths is a bit rusty.
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It's still not a living wage tho.

Median wage based on average income for the UK would still mean that people survived and got by not that they have an excess of capital.

It's the excess of capital which people need in order for economies to flourish and become strong.

It starts with allowing them to have savings and then to have money to spend as and when they see fit which then brings in extra revune via VAT etc...
 
Spion said:
Not useless from the point of view of the ruling class. I recently met someone who is an engineer on submarine nuclear reactors. His answer to why we need nukes was that it guarantees a seat at the 'top table', ie the UN security council for the UK. If that's to be believed the spend on Trident is like a hefty club fee to a body that gives legitimacy to the actions of the ruling class internationally. Useless and a waste of money to those of us with no interest in invading coutries and making millions from whatever benefits flow to corporations from having friendly regimes installed tho
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our seat at the top table is guaranteed by virtue of our joint success in ww2 and the formation of the UN
 
invisibleplanet said:
How much have the wars contributed to the budget deficit? Does anyone know?
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One of the most important questions asked.

As for the O.P. Labour should think like a good army. Take a few weeks off. Relax, have a few beers and a few deep thinking sessions, bring the factions together and then re-group.

Once that's done launch every missile at the snivelling bastards. Hit them with the truth of which they have not spoken.

Darling's little cuts missive was perfectly timed on Monday to counterbalance the shitty Sun story. Good man, it worked. It pissed them off.

I wouldn't underestimate Darling for being frank (No not Frank, Frank). Remember the C4 interview when he talked truthfully about the length of the recession? He can punch hard.
 
jiggajagga said:
They have just told 2.6 million people that time is up on incap ben and they are to take 33% of income off them. 2.6 million votes lost.

They have told the people on 30-50 k that they are to lose their tax credits should they win

Votes lost who knows 3, million?

They have just told people who were born in 1950 or below they have to work another year!!
Votes lost 2 mill?

I don't think its as cut and dried as people seem to think it is iyswim?
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How many of those 2.6 million people on IB will vote? Probably not that many.
So cant see them losing many votes as it will also be popular with lots of people too.

A lot of people on 30-50k wont be so worried about losing tax credits that they will change the way they vote..

Retiring at 66 instead of 65 is not going to worry people that much either.

I wish you were right. But i think all the Tory inclined people will vote at the next election and about a third of Labour inclined people will either vote for fringe parties or stay at home.
I don't think Labour can win now.
 
jiggajagga said:
Whats that saying TB? Ah yes, "A week is a long time in politics"

26 weeks is a century in poli time;)
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I really don't see it happening. Labour have pissed off a lot of its middle class supporters off with Iraq and talking tough on benefit reform,pfi etc etc....A lot of their working class supporters either dont know or have forgotten just how bad the Tories were.
In the last election the Tories had Michael Howard a pantomine baddie in charge...This one they will have fresh faced media friendly prince david cameron....
What odds are the bookies offering on a Labour win?
 
tbaldwin said:
I really don't see it happening. Labour have pissed off a lot of its middle class supporters off with Iraq and talking tough on benefit reform,pfi etc etc....A lot of their working class supporters either dont know or have forgotten just how bad the Tories were.
In the last election the Tories had Michael Howard a pantomine baddie in charge...This one they will have fresh faced media friendly prince david cameron....
What odds are the bookies offering on a Labour win?
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the tories also supported the war, and if that's going to be a factor in this election then surely it would have had more of an effect in 2005.
 
GarfieldLeChat said:
And?

A living wage not a median wage.

The median is squewed by people who earn £100,000+ and also reduced again by those that earn less than 6,000.

If people earned a living wage of £35,000 then they would have surplus cash which would then be either saved or put back into the economy.
Click to expand...

Not sure what your point is.

I posted up the median wage to show that there would be a lot of people on or under £18k affected, as mentioned in trevhagl's posting.

:hmm:
 
GarfieldLeChat said:
The median is squewed by people who earn £100,000+ and also reduced again by those that earn less than 6,000.
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Actually, the median is exactly the middle value, ~50% earn more than that ~50% below, it's not skewed by the higher and lower earning outliers at all.
 
07.10.09-Steve-Bell-on-Ge-001.jpg


George has a bum nose:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/video/2009/oct/07/steve-bell-george-osborne
 
I've been thinking about this thread and reached a conclusion.
The OP is wrong and the Tories will win.

I think the mistake the OP is making is two fold.

1- The OP assumes voters are using/have brains.
2 - The OP assumes that voters don't read and believe the Sun news?paper.

As both of these are clearly wrong for most of the voting public (As proven by three new labour wins), the Conservatives will be in number 10 come the day after the election.

It will do the pound exchange rate no end of good so I will be a happy bunny.
 
derf said:
I've been thinking about this thread and reached a conclusion.
The OP is wrong and the Tories will win.

I think the mistake the OP is making is two fold.

1- The OP assumes voters are using/have brains.
2 - The OP assumes that voters don't read and believe the Sun news?paper.

As both of these are clearly wrong for most of the voting public (As proven by three new labour wins), the Conservatives will be in number 10 come the day after the election.

It will do the pound exchange rate no end of good so I will be a happy bunny.
Click to expand...


won't the pound exchange rate get WORSE when there's 4-5 million unemployed?
 
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