Dai Sheep said:
Personally I would maintain that De-industrialisation is occurring across the whole of the 'developed' world, and our economy is now consumer based - these economies typically have over 70% employment in the service sectors (UK is over 80%). But Manufacturing will still always be important to our economy.
The trans-national corporations who run the ever more globalised economy are based in 'global' cities like New York, Tokyo, London - THEY will decide where most production is to occur. This inevitably will be in developing countries where labour is cheap - and the situation in these countries is unlikely to change for a very long time.
True, labour in Asian countries will experience wage rises - but there are other places in the world where cheap labour can be exploited by the TNC's.
Although, China a massive future player is industrialised mostly on the coastline - while the intereior is still mostly rural in nature. I cant really see China allowing either big wage increases or strong unionisation.
Just my personal view.
Deindustrialiation can only be sustained by it's counterpart; Globalisation, the goods still have to be produced somewhere. While China may not welcome big wage increases or strong unionisation on the one hand, on the other it has no intention of remaining the slave labour capital of the world. Wage increases will occur, but through the closely monitored imposition of the state.
For the time being the likes of China are prepared to allow us this myth that we can deindustrialise and forever be able to buy trousers from ASDA for £3, as well as lending us the money on our credit cards to fill the gap our service job wages can't stretch to, inorder to help us buy their cheap imports.
Those credit lines and cheap goods are increasingly entirely in China's favour, and as soon as they, and other countries, decide to start ratcheting up prices, to pay for those wage increases, and toughening up the conditions on our credit cards, they will.
That's part of the plan.
At this point, the real underying condition of our deindustrialised economies will be exposed for the world to see. And that's even while ignoring the complicating issue of oil scarcity, and its implications, for the moment.
EDIT: Also, most of those places in the world which can be exploited for cheap labour are now being exploited, and those areas which aren't, are generally too unstable to attract investment, such as most of Africa, and the chances of Africa ever being stable enough to drag much industry away from the Far East, looks like a non-starter. Things look set to only get significantly worse.
http://www.gnn.tv/headlines/9139/West_s_Failure_over_Climate_Change_Will_Kill_182m_Africans