Who will lead Labour into the next election?

[Prince Rhyus]

thanks for taking the trouble to look it up! I think it goes to show how the UK FPTP system can deliver 'landslides' which are entirely unrepresentative of what actually happened votes wise.

IIRC the 1997 election was one of the first where tactical voting played a big part - hence the Lib Dems getting so many. The Mirror had a campaign to oust the Tories come what may and effectively said, seat by seat:

"If you want the Tories out, vote Labour here, and Lib Dem there."

Will be interesting to see what happens at the next election - whether the rightwing press will adopt similar tactics.

 

[scifisam]

Either Brown or someone who doesn't actually care about winning the election, they just want to have their last chance at having their name down as one of the Prime Ministers of Britain.

Given how young and ambitious most of the current cabinet seem to be, I can't see many of them going for it. If Brown were to stand down, there'd be a rumble with people vying not to be the next leader. Poisoned chalice, anyone?

 

[Augie March]

Given how young and ambitious most of the current cabinet seem to be, I can't see many of them going for it. If Brown were to stand down, there'd be a rumble with people vying not to be the next leader. Poisoned chalice, anyone?

Very true I think. The younger lot would probably prefer to play the waiting game and leap into action after the election. The older lot (Clarke, Straw) might be up for a caretaker style role but I doubt any of those guys would be able to turn the voters around at this stage.

 

[Haller]

Precisely, the 1997 general election result was as much the result of traditional Tory voters staying at home as it was any enthusiasm for Labour/Blair. Same again in 2001 when the Tories were no further forward than they had been in 1997.

Not sure where to find the figures to back this up but in terms of numbers of votes received, I'm pretty sure Major's Tories got more in 1992 than Blair's Labour did in 1997. Frankly, Labour could have had a pantomime horse in charge in 1997 and still won such were the numbers of Tories who couldn't bear to support the party any more.

The Tory vote in 1992 under Major was the largest ever recorded for a political party in Britain. It produced a majority much smaller than any of Thatcher's or Blair's, however, partly because the opposition wasn't as divided as it had been in the '80s, and partly because the votes piled up in safe Tory seats.

And the main reason for the latter phenomenon was the sense of absolute panic in middle England that Labour were in with a good chance of winning. The fear was mainly directed at Kinnock as leader, but the other crucial factor were the tax proposals of John Smith as chancellor.

Yes, Smith would have undoubtedly won the '97 election had he lived, but he wasn't particularly popular in himself - he was seen as the man who tried to bring back high levels of taxation, and that would have limited the numbers of swing voters and disaffected Tories going over to Labour. He would have been a much easier target for Tory strategists: The last time this man was in government, we had the winter of discontent - do you really want to return to those days?

Whereas Blair, having risen without trace, proved too slippery a target for Tory propaganda, just as Cameron is proving too much for Labour strategists now. I don't think it's buying into Blair's mythology to recognize that he was much more successful in the South than Smith would have been.

And I suspect, had Brown succeeded Smith, he wouldn't have won so many Southern seats either. Though again, he would certainly have won in '97.

 

[teqniq]

Whoever it is, they'll maintain and sustain the neo-liberal political consensus, so it doesn't really matter. If you aren't wealthy you'll still be treated like shit on their shoes.

Seconded or thirded or whatever.

 

[Haller]

Given how young and ambitious most of the current cabinet seem to be, I can't see many of them going for it. If Brown were to stand down, there'd be a rumble with people vying not to be the next leader. Poisoned chalice, anyone?

On the other hand, if Brown could be persuaded to resign (highly unlikely), you can never rule out the vanity of politicians.

Who in their right mind would have wanted to take over from John Major in 1997? And yet there was the most promising of the young Tory MPs, who thereby threw away his chance of ever becoming prime minister.

It would be stupid for the likes of Milliband or Purnell to volunteer for the job, but I wouldn't discount it entirely.

 

[skyscraper101]

It would be stupid for the likes of Milliband or Purnell to volunteer for the job, but I wouldn't discount it entirely.

Assuming Cameron becomes PM. Milliband will have a difficult decision to make about when he does launch a bid.

The question is, does he sit in the shadow cabinet of a fall guy and attract endless speculation whilst hoping Labour narrowly lose the 2014/15 election and then make a bid to lead the party to victory in 2020? OR does he go for it after Brown and build a momentum to win in 2014/15?

It's a very difficult strategy to decide on, or indeed predict.

 

[Haller]

Assuming Cameron becomes PM. Milliband will have a difficult decision to make about when he does launch a bid.

The question is, does he sit in the shadow cabinet of a fall guy and attract endless speculation whilst hoping Labour narrowly lose the 2014/15 election and then make a bid to lead the party to victory in 2020? OR does he go for it after Brown and build a momentum to win in 2014/15?

It's a very difficult strategy to decide on, or indeed predict.

In that situation, I have no doubt Milliband will be in the race - he'll be absolutely convinced that he can turn around Labour's fortunes. More difficult will be his calcuations in the unlikely event of Brown stepping down before a general election.

 

[Fruitloop]

Charlie Brooker on Miliand:

According to tradition, you're supposed to get more rightwing as you grow older, as wide-eyed youthful idealism is gradually replaced with growling, frightened, fat-arsed self-interest. I say "gradually", but what worries me is the thought that such a transformation could occur with terrifying speed, a real Damascene conversion. I came close once after glimpsing David Miliband on TV: I couldn't hear what he was saying, but something about his face - just his sodding face - revolted me on a deep and primal level. It was chilling, unsettling - like watching a haunted ventriloquist's dummy slowly turn its head through 360 degrees. "Who is this grinning homunculus," I thought, "and what does he want from me?"

 

[teqniq]

^^^ that's class

 

[ViolentPanda]

Given how young and ambitious most of the current cabinet seem to be, I can't see many of them going for it. If Brown were to stand down, there'd be a rumble with people vying not to be the next leader. Poisoned chalice, anyone?

You're absolutely right, and that very fact is a powerful indictment of our current crop of politicians.
People who truly wished to govern in the best interests of "the people" wouldn't, I'd theorise, be quite as concerned about their place in the pecking order, or how a leadership struggle might affect them, whereas, as you say, the current crop are almost vying to be more supine than one another, marking time until they can make their move toward garnering sufficient power and influence, a politics (if you can call it that) for the sake only of power rather than a politics that looks toward serving "the people".

Bad cess to the lot of them.

 

[treelover]

Over on the Daily T website,Denis McShane MP, a former New Left supporter is arguing for tax cuts and slashing public spending including cuts by town halls!

 

[danny la rouge]

Iain MacWhirter in the Herald:

Brown is barely functioning as a leader - for whatever reason - and has lost his intellectual and political grasp of events. The nation has turned on him. Worse, the economy is collapsing around his ears in a way unseen since the 1970s. Food prices are rocketing, petrol is becoming a scarce resource, housing finance has dried up, businesses are closing. Things are not going to get any better. There is no happy ending here, and no way Brown can change who he is.

 

[lewislewis]

I always thought Alan Johnson would be a 'good' (for Labour, not for everyone else) contender for PM but only if he made public attempts to rein in the most marketised aspects of Blairism and bring in a more social democratic attitude. Sadly his record in office isn't favourable to this.

 

[stavros]

I always thought Alan Johnson would be a 'good' (for Labour, not for everyone else) contender for PM

I always remember when Blair went, on HIGNFY they were discussing who'd challenge Brown and quoted a newspaper as saying "Alan Johnson has a certain cheeky appeal". The host then turned to Lembit Opik and said "So Lembit, how much have you donated to the Cheeky Appeal?".