Where will Galloway stand at the next election?

[Nigel Irritable]

Would three winnable seats be a big story? I'm doubtful. Winning three seats would be a story, but even then, the mainstream media will be obsessing over the Lab/Con battle, with some asides over whether the Lib Dems will get squeezed or capitalise on a likely swing away from Labour. I doubt Respect will get more than the required amount of coverage pre-election, just as the Greens find, and only the more detailed mainstream reports would mention even if they won three seats.

You are right that they will not get a vast amount of coverage coming into an election - although they will get some, particularly if Galloway is up against a Minister. But if they get 3 seats, they will be taken much seriously in the press and it will get significant coverage afterwards. They won't be seen as a "real" political party still, but they won't just be seen as Galloway alone either. Moving to some point between those poles would be a step forward for them.

 

[JHE]

*Bump*

Galloway to reveal his next General Election target

08 August 2007
EXCLUSIVE by Ted Jeory

GEORGE Galloway is announcing next week which constituency he is stand in at the next General Election.

The Bethnal Green & Bow 'Respect' MP has told the East London Advertiser that his two favoured options are Aviation minister Jim Fitzpatrick's seat in neighbouring Poplar & Limehouse, and Justice Secretary Jack Straw's manor in Blackburn.

He will examine the campaign and voting patterns in tomorrow's Tower Hamlets council by-election in Shadwell before making up his mind next Thursday (August 16).

But the Advertiser understands that Blackburn is his most likely destination.

"The thought of taking on the former Foreign Secretary who took us into war is I have to say quite a relishing one," he said.

"The depth of feeling against Straw is considerable. We've had several in-depth meetings with officials about standing there."

A number of other factors point towards a move away from London's East End, where Galloway has his power base, not least rumours of growing discontent with local Respect party members.

However, the Scot said: "It would be a wrench to leave Tower Hamlets. I love the place."

Other Labour seats being considered are Treasury minister Kitty Ussher's constituency in Burnley, an unspecified seat in Birmingham and Bradford West, where Marsh Singh is standing down.

Galloway believes the chances of a snap General Election in October are 50-50.

That could mean he has already uttered his last words in Parliament, as he was 'named' and abruptly suspended by the Commons speaker Michael Martin two weeks ago.

He said walking out: "If anyone wants to hear the rest of my speech, they can come and listen outside."​

From: http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co....y=newsela&itemid=WeED08 Aug 2007 17:31:28:273

 

[London Boy]

Hopefully Galloway will lose the election in whatever seat he may contest in the future, reducing RESPECT'S presence in parliament to zero.

Given Galloway seems to be the only person in RESPECT that anyone (most voters and normal people, not the far-left) has heard of, if he loses his seat then we can hopefully see RESPECT fall apart and the SWP and it's totalitarian associates become even more pointless and irrelevant in British political life.

 

[JHE]

If he fails to get back into the House of Commons, I reckon he'll get into the European Parliament. (The salary and expenses etc would be right up his street.) The next European Elections are in June 2009.

 

[London Boy]

If he fails to get back into the House of Commons, I reckon he'll get into the European Parliament. (The salary and expenses etc would be right up his street.) The next European Elections are in June 2009.

It will be shame if he does get into the European Parliament.

However, the EP hardly gets any media coverage on the news, TV and very little coverage (usually a paragraph on page 14) in the newspapers. This would come in handy as it would not give Galloway the oxygen of publicity that he gets from the media at the moment. Let's face it, Galloway only cares for his own power base and the status of his own self, he only ever used parliament as a way of getting publicity and a means to promote himself and his totalitarian allies in RESPECT (the SWP and the Islamists). At least in the future we can hope that he will not be able to get that across with such ease.

 

[audiotech]

Galloway is certainly more entertaining than most of the boring fuckers on this thread that's for sure.

Blackburn looks a good bet.

 

[chymaera]

Salma Yaqoob could win, but it's not guaranteed.

Personally I think Salma Yaqoob would make an excellent MP, but stands no chance of being one when standing for Respect.

 

[mutley]

No chance? In the last two local elections Respect have polled around 6.5 to 7K votes across the Hall Green constituency, and the labs and libs have both polled 8 to 9K. Respect haven't stood in one of the wards (Hall Green ward) so anything they get there is a plus. When you factor in the fact that Salma will prob pull a vote in Springfield ward that will compare to the 4.5K that she got as candidate in Sparkbrook (Respect vote there about 2K generally), then I think 'no chance' is looking like a statement that is far stronger than the evidence can justify.

It's nowhere near a certainty, but it could be done.

 

[mk12]

Personally I think Salma Yaqoob would make an excellent MP, but stands no chance of being one when standing for Respect.

She does seem like a very good politician (whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, i'll leave up to you to decide...)

 

[JHE]

Any chance of a Social Worker getting into Parliament, Mutley? No?

Best just hope for a prize from GG or SY for being good canvassers, eh? Perhaps you can have a little medal to share among yourselves - the Loyal Dhimmi Crescent. Wear it with pride.

 

[belboid]

wont look as nice as your Friend of the BNP badge, but what does, eh?

 

[belboid]

it's Poplar

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6940517.stm

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Big surprise.

 

[Joon]

Taxi for Mr Fitzpatrick!

 

[Roadkill]

Where will Galloway stand? On the stage, at the count, looking marginally sillier than the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate next to him.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

Where will Galloway stand? On the stage, at the count, looking marginally sillier than the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate next to him.

It never ceases to amaze me that so many of Respect's opponents confuse their fantasies for reality over and over again.

I would not be in Respect if I was in Britain. I have a host of political and organisational criticisms of that party. But they have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to get a very substantial vote in a few areas of the country. There is no reason at all to think that they will suddenly lose that vote in the near future. If they stand Galloway in Poplar, Yaqoob in Hall Green and a reasonably strong candidate in Bethnan Green then three seats is not beyond the bounds of possibility. At the very least they will put in a strong performance in all three constituencies.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Taxi for Mr Fitzpatrick!

Hmmm I'm not convinced he'll find this an easy fight...

 

[Fisher_Gate]

It never ceases to amaze me that so many of Respect's opponents confuse their fantasies for reality over and over again.

I would not be in Respect if I was in Britain. I have a host of political and organisational criticisms of that party. But they have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to get a very substantial vote in a few areas of the country. There is no reason at all to think that they will suddenly lose that vote in the near future. If they stand Galloway in Poplar, Yaqoob in Hall Green and a reasonably strong candidate in Bethnan Green then three seats is not beyond the bounds of possibility. At the very least they will put in a strong performance in all three constituencies.

In addition to those three winnable seats, Respect will also most likely be in second place in West Ham and East Ham, and are likely to be able to mount strong challenges, possibly exceeding 10%, in seats like Birmingham Ladywood and Preston.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

In addition to those three winnable seats, Respect will also most likely be in second place in West Ham and East Ham, and are likely to be able to mount strong challenges, possibly exceeding 10%, in seats like Birmingham Ladywood and Preston.

I'd be surprised if they ran real campaigns in those constituencies, as opposed to just putting up a paper candidate and putting all of their resources into their three targets.

Yaqoob in particular will get the help of every SWP or Respect member north of London if they have any sense - she's probably the best positioned of their candidates but has a smaller activist base in Birmingham. And it would seem pretty stupid to have SWPers handing out leaflets in East Ham if they have any shot at all in Bethnal Green or Poplar.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

I'd be surprised if they ran real campaigns in those constituencies, as opposed to just putting up a paper candidate and putting all of their resources into their three targets.

Yaqoob in particular will get the help of every SWP or Respect member north of London if they have any sense - she's probably the best positioned of their candidates but has a smaller activist base in Birmingham. And it would seem pretty stupid to have SWPers handing out leaflets in East Ham if they have any shot at all in Bethnal Green or Poplar.

True, that does depends on building a base for Respect above and beyond the existing membership and periphery. Standing more candidates in 2008, and seeking to engage a broader layer at ward and constituency level is key to that.

Newham was actually Respect's strongest electoral area (in terms of vote proportion) at the same time in 2006 that they put significant resources into winning 12 seats in Tower Hamlets, it just wasn't reflected in seats because of the electoral geometry; and Respect gained 28% and 21% in two of the four wards of Ladywood constituency in 2007, at the same time that they won over 40% in Sparkbrook ward and 27% in Springfield ward in Birmingham Hall Green constituency; Preston is clearly a long way from either and would be the key seat in the North West, but even though enormous resources were put into winning Lavalette's ward, the Respect vote in two neighbouring wards also went up despite a lesser and virtually non-existent campaign than 2006.

Remember also that the Labour Party has to fight 635 seats, Respect will probably stand in less than 50.

The jury is still out on whether Respect has the capacity to pull it off, but it's not beyond the bounds of possibility. Respect will be contesting every seat in London in 2008 due to the GLA, but also needs to stand in Hall Green, Ladywood and Soho wards in Birmingham, and at least 5+ wards in Preston.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

True, that does depends on building a base for Respect above and beyond the existing membership and periphery. Standing more candidates in 2008, and seeking to engage a broader layer at ward and constituency level is key to that.

Premising your strategy on expanding the activist layer significantly seems a bit dubious to me. Respect has actually shrunk in membership since it was founded and it was never a large organisation. Just as some of its opponents refuse to see that its electoral base in a few areas of the country is solid, some of its supporters seem unable to see that it has shown no sign of being able to expand its activist base. It is possible that Respect could reverse its membership decline and even grow significantly in the next year and a half. But it is very unlikely to grow to a degree which would utterly transform the realities on the ground in that period.

Respect will not have such a surfeit of activists that it can reasonably afford to run serious campaigns in unwinnable seats. Unwinnable seats means all but the three seats previously mentioned. If Respect loses in those three seats it will be perceived as finished, or gravely wounded at least, regardless of the respectability of its results elsewhere. If it wins those seats, then it will be perceived as a force and good results elsewhere would just be a nice bonus to that.

Remember also that the Labour Party has to fight 635 seats, Respect will probably stand in less than 50.

The Labour Party also has access to resources many times greater than Respect in terms of membership numbers, full time staff, and sheer money. And they will focus more attention on seats where there is a threat from their left (whether from Respect or the Greens) than they will on seats where they are in competition with the other mainstream parties.

 

[Cobbles]

It looks to me that he's more interested in his attempted celebrity career...

So probably a Festival Fringe Venue like the equally preposterous Mr. Sheridan with his "Where's Tommy Sheridan" chat show whose fly-posters have proviked endless additions along the lines of "Where's Tommy Sheridan - Who gives a toss"

 

[Fisher_Gate]

Premising your strategy on expanding the activist layer significantly seems a bit dubious to me. Respect has actually shrunk in membership since it was founded and it was never a large organisation. Just as some of its opponents refuse to see that its electoral base in a few areas of the country is solid, some of its supporters seem unable to see that it has shown no sign of being able to expand its activist base. It is possible that Respect could reverse its membership decline and even grow significantly in the next year and a half. But it is very unlikely to grow to a degree which would utterly transform the realities on the ground in that period.

Respect will not have such a surfeit of activists that it can reasonably afford to run serious campaigns in unwinnable seats. Unwinnable seats means all but the three seats previously mentioned. If Respect loses in those three seats it will be perceived as finished, or gravely wounded at least, regardless of the respectability of its results elsewhere. If it wins those seats, then it will be perceived as a force and good results elsewhere would just be a nice bonus to that.



The Labour Party also has access to resources many times greater than Respect in terms of membership numbers, full time staff, and sheer money. And they will focus more attention on seats where there is a threat from their left (whether from Respect or the Greens) than they will on seats where they are in competition with the other mainstream parties.

I don't agree. Respect activists from Preston (say) will not travel to Birmingham in sufficiently significant numbers to help Salma Yaqoob win a seat. The odd weekend maybe a few individuals might travel, but the bulk of election activists need to be drawn locally. Far more realistic to get Respect supporters from Blackburn and Burnley to go to Preston, while those from Sandwell and Coventry will go to Birmingham. Respect activists in places like Bradford and Sheffield will put to put up a serious challenge in their locality too, even though they are not remotely winnable, Respect ought to be looking for 5-10% in seats in those areas.

I think this idea that Respect is just a mobile army of highly disciplined SWP members who use up all their free time travelling across the country is a nonsense. The key thing is to give those people who are attracted to Respect's politics something to do, and standing in elections in their locality (or at least nearby) is the best way to use those resources.

Realistically there are maybe half a dozen seats where Labour are under serious challenge from the Greens or Respect. There will be dozens, up to a hundred or so, where they are under serious challenge from the Tories or LibDems. They will prioritise accordingly.

 

[dennisr]

So probably a Festival Fringe Venue like the equally preposterous Mr. Sheridan with his "Where's Tommy Sheridan" chat show whose fly-posters have proviked endless additions along the lines of "Where's Tommy Sheridan - Who gives a toss"

* spot the troll* (enth attempt)

 

[Nigel Irritable]

I don't agree. Respect activists from Preston (say) will not travel to Birmingham in sufficiently significant numbers to help Salma Yaqoob win a seat. The odd weekend maybe a few individuals might travel, but the bulk of election activists need to be drawn locally. Far more realistic to get Respect supporters from Blackburn and Burnley to go to Preston, while those from Sandwell and Coventry will go to Birmingham. Respect activists in places like Bradford and Sheffield will put to put up a serious challenge in their locality too, even though they are not remotely winnable, Respect ought to be looking for 5-10% in seats in those areas.

Getting say twenty 5% to 10% results while losing all three key constituencies would be a disaster for Respect which may well finish the organisation. It's as simple as that. As for the composition of Respect, the idea that there are significant number of activists outside of the SWP involved in it anywhere outside of the same few locations is a myth.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

Getting say twenty 5% to 10% results while losing all three key constituencies would be a disaster for Respect which may well finish the organisation. It's as simple as that. As for the composition of Respect, the idea that there are significant number of activists outside of the SWP involved in it anywhere outside of the same few locations is a myth.

That's written simply from a position of ignorance. I know the vast majority of Respect supporters in Preston who put in the work to win elections are not members of the SWP. That's obviously true in Tower Hamlets, Newham and Birmingham too. It's not a bit like the SP's election campaigns that are restricted to the Party and its immediate periphery.

The SWP have an influence far beyond their numbers within the structures of Respect, because the other supporters have not been brought into functioning membership in the way that (say) the Labour Party would have done, but in terms of an electoral machine Respect is far more than just the SWP.

I don't think that winning a seat at the General Election is the sole means of judging the success of Respect. Galloway's victory in 2005 was very much the icing on the cake rather than the end event (good though it was).

 

[Nigel Irritable]

That's written simply from a position of ignorance. I know the vast majority of Respect supporters in Preston who put in the work to win elections are not members of the SWP. That's obviously true in Tower Hamlets, Newham and Birmingham too.

...outside of the same few locations...

The SWP have an influence far beyond their numbers within the structures of Respect, because the other supporters have not been brought into functioning membership

According to Respect's membership figures, as stated by Alan Thornett, nobody much has been brought into any kind of membership of Respect at all. Once you deduct the SWP members from the less than 2,000 Respect members and they you take the ISG/SR and CPGB from what's left, we are not talking about very substantial numbers of people.

You are probably right that Respect could have more members if it had a proper structure, with functioning branches across the country and so on. But it doesn't. And it has shown no sign of attracting more. For all intents and purposes, when we talk about Respect activists anywhere outside of the core areas, we are talking about the SWP and its immediate periphery. There will be the odd place that doesn't fit the pattern, but it is the pattern.

As for your argument that Galloway's victory was just the icing on the cake, I couldn't disagree more. Yaqoob and Galloway's results were the things which gave Respect whatever electoral credibility it had at that point. The other constituencies in that election did not matter nearly as much. Respect's next general election will be judged both by people sympathetic to it and by those hostile to it by how it does in three constituencies. Doing well elsewhere would be meager consolation if they lose in their three winnable seats. I find it difficult to believe that you think otherwise. Which would you really take: 20 results of 5 - 10%, or three seats?

 

[Fisher_Gate]

According to Respect's membership figures, as stated by Alan Thornett, nobody much has been brought into any kind of membership of Respect at all. Once you deduct the SWP members from the less than 2,000 Respect members and they you take the ISG/SR and CPGB from what's left, we are not talking about very substantial numbers of people.

You are probably right that Respect could have more members if it had a proper structure, with functioning branches across the country and so on. But it doesn't. And it has shown no sign of attracting more. For all intents and purposes, when we talk about Respect activists anywhere outside of the core areas, we are talking about the SWP and its immediate periphery. There will be the odd place that doesn't fit the pattern, but it is the pattern.

As for your argument that Galloway's victory was just the icing on the cake, I couldn't disagree more. Yaqoob and Galloway's results were the things which gave Respect whatever electoral credibility it had at that point. The other constituencies in that election did not matter nearly as much. Respect's next general election will be judged both by people sympathetic to it and by those hostile to it by how it does in three constituencies. Doing well elsewhere would be meager consolation if they lose in their three winnable seats. I find it difficult to believe that you think otherwise. Which would you really take: 20 results of 5 - 10%, or three seats?

The problem with Respect is that it has not turned those people who are active in elections into members - that's why the membership figures are so atrocious. That doesn't mean that there is not the potential for a wider base that can be brought into activity.

The danger is that the SWP/Galloway are frittering away that support, by failing to build Respect as a proper functioning organisation. People who become active in elections and then turn up to branches, expect to take part in debates and influence policy, particularly where there are elected councillors. When they discover that this is not the case in Respect, they get pissed off and withdraw, including from electoral activity. The SWP's use of these activists as a 'stage army', that can be moved according to the whims of the self-appointed leadership, will never build Respect into its full potential. It will just create a big periphery for the SWP to recruit from, which is what I suspect some of them actually want.

Galloway's appalling announcement of his candidacy via his radio show, rather than through the democratic channels of Respect, and the SWP's acquiescence (if not co-conspiracy), is symptomatic of this failure of approach. Should not Respect members and their elected leadership decide where to stand and local members decide who to stand? If he had said "I am putting myself forward for selection by the members" then it would have been better.

And as regards winning seats being the key, in Preston we were pretty pleased with our performance in 2005, that built on and developed the previous work of the Socialist Alliance. Scoring nearly 7% may not mean much to you across the water, but we were pretty pleased with it and had nearly 200 people turn up to celebrate the achievement. Just because we did better than Dave Nellist could, after 9 years in parliament and a decade as a councillor, is not reason to belittle it! It's 'little' things like that, that a longer term movement is based on. I would never suggest that the loss of Joe Higgins' Dail seat (and the failure to win a second seat) meant the end of the SP in Ireland.

 

[keicar]

And they <the Labour Party> will focus more attention on seats where there is a threat from their left (whether from Respect or the Greens) than they will on seats where they are in competition with the other mainstream parties.

Are you sure? Surely priority number one is to focus on seats the Tories look like taking. Not saying Labour won't campaign hard in Stepney, in Bethnal Green, in Blaneau Gwent and Brighton Pavillion, but the main battle will be to hold the Lab/Con marginals.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

I would never suggest that the loss of Joe Higgins' Dail seat (and the failure to win a second seat) meant the end of the SP in Ireland.

If the Socialist Party was a barely functioning organisation, an alliance as tenuous as Respect, with elections as its main sphere of activity it may well have killed us. Luckily none of those things are true. We are a very different organisation in a very different situation.

Respect's future as a semi-credible would-be rival to Labour is dependent on its ability to look like it is going forward and in particular its ability to maintain a parliamentary presence.