Azrael said:
I defer to no one here in my hatred of Mr Blair, but I'm not going to support a theory I find unconvincing because it's politically convenient.
OK, you have a point about these people being around since year dot, but there's other ways they could have actualised their instincts. Perhaps not bombing people, but common murder, or joining up and shooting some poor beggar in the name of the Empire.
Even if something is tipping people over the edge into would-be Mahdi's, Iraq alone isn't the most convincing explanation. Islamist brainwashing/indoctrination clearly gets these people along the right path, and if it wasn't Iraq, another trigger-cause could doubtless have been found. (The 11 September bombers, many "Westernised", used other excuses, as have their predecessors.)
Even if it is Iraq that's setting off these human bombs, no country can be hostage to them. They could be provoked by a perfectly just war, or God-knows-what piece of foreign policy they disapprove of.
Well, there is plenty of research on suicide bombings, I'm thinking in particular of the long-term project run by Robert Pape at Chicago, which has analysed all the available evidence, going back to the earliest modern examples. He's got some pretty clear conclusions about what such bombings have in common, whatever the other contributing factors may be.
Ninety-five percent of such attacks in recent times have the same specific strategic goal: to cause an occupying state to withdraw forces from a disputed territory. Pape notes that in recent decades suicide attacks as a political tactic are used against democratic countries in which public opinion plays a role in determining policy
source
So, given that the London bombers videos said that's why they were doing it, and that 95% of all the known suicide bombings were for those sort of reasons, I think there would have to be some very strong new factor that made it a necessity to doubt, that this is precisely why they did what they did. I don't see such a factor. So as far as I can see the overwhelmingly most plausible reasons they did it, are the reasons that they gave by video.
Clearly ideology plays some sort of role, because otherwise why are UK citizens killing other UK citizens on behalf of people in other countries?
I do think though, that the 'they did it
only because they were evil/crazy/brainwashed' argument flies in the face of strong factual evidence and has to be justified against the weight of that evidence before I can take it a bit seriously as anything other than a denial/propaganda tactic.
In a situation like this, where some very obvious motives exist for denial and obfuscating propaganda, I think it's especially important for people to think clearly and to pay attention to the evidence. In this case, I think the evidence clearly suggests that they did it as a asymmetrical warfare tactic aimed at changing government foreign policy, just like the other 95% did.
In practice, it failed utterly to achieve its objectives. As far as I can see, the British public, inured to this sort of thing from the IRA days just got on with life and wasn't any more or less likely to demand withdrawal from Iraq as a result. As far as I can make out, the reasons why many people want us out of Iraq are nothing to do with the probability of being blown up on the way to work.
So I don't really see that there is any question of us 'being hostage to them'. If we are hostages to anybody it's the gang of stupid fuckheads in Westminster who got us into this idiotic mess and who are still frantically running around screaming about terrorism in order to introduce repressive legislation that makes them even more immune to public opinion, whether illegitimately expressed with high explosives or legitimately expressed by protest and campaigning, than they previously were.