Wassup with John Reid?

[ska invita]

A sign that the focus group has had an effect:

There are Downing Street people actively canvassing this conference for John Reid and Alan Johnson (I don't think they can make their minds up). They are also able to tell you in intimate detail why Brown should not, in their opinion, be allowed anywhere near the top job.

Three times, I kid you not, I was regaled with the facts and figures from Monday's edition of Newsnight, where a rather wacky focus group went against the chancellor. Now, you would have thought Blair's people would have had better things to do before his big speech but actually, they don't.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/derek_draper/2006/09/the_enemy_within.html

 

[JHE]

as an aside, my tip for the top job in the not so distant future is Hazel Blears!
-Very loyal Blairite I would guess from her voting record.

not sure what her score at a focus group would be. People often get intimidated by confident and articulate women.

Blears would be a powerful vote-repellent.

My tip is don't rely on Niksativa as a tipster.

 

[ska invita]

Blears would be a powerful vote-repellent.

My tip is don't rely on Niksativa as a tipster.

If you want to win big at the bookies you have to spot the most probable longshot!

 

[ViolentPanda]

as an aside, my tip for the top job in the not so distant future is Hazel Blears!
-Very loyal Blairite I would guess from her voting record.

not sure what her score at a focus group would be. People often get intimidated by confident and articulate women.

Having seen her last three or four appearences on "Question Time" I won't argue about her confidence, but will argue about her articulacy. She's great at trotting out the pre-digested soundbites, but she appears to genuinely struggle answering anything that veers away from her preconceptions. It's highly unlikely that any of the sections of the Labour party (the PLP, the unions and the constituency parties) would support someone so obviously unable to win arguments.

 

[ska invita]

Reid was at the platform today - and supposedly the Labour delegates lapped it up:

John Reid laid down a marker for the Labour party leadership vacancy today with an enthusiastically received speech pledging a hardline crackdown on Islamist extremism, terrorism and crime.

After Alan Johnson's speech received only a lukewarm reception yesterday, Mr Reid has become the focus of the "anyone but Gordon" forces in the party - and in the media.

[...]

Following his speech, bookmakers William Hill promoted Mr Reid to 7/2 second favourite for the party leadership from 6/1.

Hills have lengthened Gordon Brown from 2/7 to 4/11 favourite, with Mr Johnson now third favourite at 4/1.

Deatils of his speach and more, here: http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourconference2006/story/0,,1883195,00.html

 

[tollbar]

Whats wrong with John Reid ?.

Lanarkshire labour innit, and some rather 'colourful' family connections iirc.

 

[ska invita]

In full: John Reid speech

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5389542.stm

41 second standing ovation is optional

 

[nino_savatte]

Whats wrong with John Reid ?.

Lanarkshire labour innit, and some rather 'colourful' family connections iirc.

What's right with John Reid?

Nothing, he's a thug and a yes man who talks the talk of an authoritarian who's desperate for some real power.

 

[ZAMB]

Erm. I beg to differ - he was an abject falure in NI

I couldn't stand him when he was here - though I guess I might be biased.

As a leader for the "labour" party I think he might even be worse than Brown, if that's possible. I doubt if they could win an election with him as the leader.

 

[ska invita]

As a leader for the "labour" party I think he might even be worse than Brown, if that's possible. I doubt if they could win an election with him as the leader.

As the focus group shows , who of us can understand what it is that makes "voters"" tick?

 

[Imagine]

welcome to the boards imagine.

you may have a point regarding luntz' own politics, .

Thanks for the welcome.

Luntz is a Republican Party pollster with some questionable methods:

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Frank_Luntz

The influence of focus groups is exaggerated. Like opinion polls, focus groups are easily manipulated to produce the result the client requires.

The 'Century Of Self' was an interesting series. There's a good critique of it here:

http://www.medialens.org/alerts/02/020403_de_Media_Century.html

 

[pseudonarcissus]

Wether you like it or not, Modern Politics in the UK is run on the focus group, and the tories have joined the focus group ride and are on the verge of winning the next elecction as a result. I dont think the LibDems are quite as slavish to it.

That was the theory, but Blair seems to have forgotton all that 3rd way stuff. How the hell did they get into the war if they involved a focus group? In the US, yes, it might have seemed a vote winner, but not in the UK. The same goes for privatizing the health service (and other public services, schools etc.), the faith based stuff etc. It's almost like Blair/Brown suddenly got some weird political philospohy from nowhere....OR they are still running on the views of focus groups....only American focus groups this time...

 

[treelover]

The media seems to be creating a 'cult of john', its as if they are anointing him the chosen successor to Tony and creating the conditions that may allow him to win, what a strange world the 'Westminister bubble' is

 

[ska invita]

Thanks for the welcome.

Luntz is a Republican Party pollster with some questionable methods:

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Frank_Luntz

The influence of focus groups is exaggerated. Like opinion polls, focus groups are easily manipulated to produce the result the client requires.

The 'Century Of Self' was an interesting series. There's a good critique of it here:

http://www.medialens.org/alerts/02/020403_de_Media_Century.html

Ive heard this criticism of century of the self before, it boils down to the presentation of Guatamala vs US. its a point worth making but does nothign to undermine the overall thrust of the series.

The use of focus groups was not disputed by media alert or anyone - and here in Britain we have an extension of this phenomenon, whereby the tabloid media can set the political agenda, the tabloids themselves running lines that they imagine/know are popular with focus groups!

It is true that not every step of POlicy is handed down by focus groups - otherwise after this focus grouop there would be laws where you have to wear nice pink shirts - the point is that focus groups are powerful in judging quite base and emotional instincts and trends in the electorate. - Its just PR.

Politics is more complex than that, you may think FGs influence is overstated - perhaps so, but in an age where mainstream politics is more management than ideology, and media coverage is brutal (in its own shallow way), PR related practice does take on a central importance, and focus groups fit in here very nicely.

If you watch the focus group in the opening post link you can see the way it is carried out, and unless Im missing something, unless he is using suggestion or mild hypnosis, these punters are quite admanant about not having faith in Brown. I reckon Brown can still have a little run and win people over, given a chance - I think he's playing his cards ot his chest.

 

[1shmael]

Reid's tactic appears to be to move Labour to the right on the kind of issues that the Conservatives have traditionally used to appeal to the 'respectable' white working class, eg crime, immigration -- & now 'Islamic extremism'; thus outflanking Cameron who is presenting a more 'left' Tory image by cycling to work, being nice to 'hoodies' etc.

 

[ska invita]

-agree 1sh, the fact that NewLabour can snipe at the Tories from the right on a whole range of issues is sad indeed.

HOWEVER Reids home secretary stuff is really all in the presentation - as is of course Cameron's lefty presentation - in terms of content its hard to see any real detail at all.

This importance on presentation is exactly why focus groups have become so valuable.

 

[Roadkill]

What's up with John Reid?

Well, aside from the fact that he's a right-wing arsehole with a bullying style, a total lack of personal charm; that he's a sycophant with a well-deserved reputation as one of Blair's arch-toadies; that he was as involved as any in some of the shittiest things this government has done; that he's managed the remarkable feat of being even more illiberal and authoritarian than his predecessors; that he looks like a bouncer in some vaguely upmarket but terminally rough nightclub and that he's got all the charisma of a halibut then he's fine IMO.

 

[zoltan]

remember , after all the work that the slimy but ultra competent fuck Mandelson did in NI, Reid effectively out the entire process into hibernation dutring his tenure.

If he cant handle taking over the reins on a project like NI, fuck knows what he would be like as PM.

As ive said, hes the Kieth Allen of politics- all mouth and no trousers - nothing original & no substance - Evan Galloway has more moral fibre than this fuck.

 

[ViolentPanda]

remember , after all the work that the slimy but ultra competent fuck Mandelson did in NI, Reid effectively out the entire process into hibernation dutring his tenure.

If he cant handle taking over the reins on a project like NI, fuck knows what he would be like as PM.

As ive said, hes the Kieth Allen of politics- all mouth and no trousers - nothing original & no substance - Evan Galloway has more moral fibre than this fuck.

Bear in mind that certain people in the "new Labour" political establishment (as well as in "the establishment" generally) would actually prefer a "hollow vessel" like Reid as PM, as they'd be able to direct him even more easily toward the interests of robber baron capitalism than they have Blair.
Blair sold his conscience and his convictions once he became PM, Reid sold his years ago.

 

[ZAMB]

What's up with John Reid?

Well, aside from the fact that he's a right-wing arsehole with a bullying style, a total lack of personal charm; that he's a sycophant with a well-deserved reputation as one of Blair's arch-toadies; that he was as involved as any in some of the shittiest things this government has done; that he's managed the remarkable feat of being even more illiberal and authoritarian than his predecessors; that he looks like a bouncer in some vaguely upmarket but terminally rough nightclub and that he's got all the charisma of a halibut then he's fine IMO.

Couldn't have put it better myself.

 

[zoltan]

Bear in mind that certain people in the "new Labour" political establishment (as well as in "the establishment" generally) would actually prefer a "hollow vessel" like Reid as PM, as they'd be able to direct him even more easily toward the interests of robber baron capitalism than they have Blair.

Im sure I recently watched an episode of the new Dr Who that had a similar theme to this ?

 

[tollbar]

What's right with John Reid?

Nothing, he's a thug and a yes man who talks the talk of an authoritarian who's desperate for some real power.

standard qulifications for advancement in lanarkshire labour

 

[tbaldwin]

Blair sold his conscience and his convictions once he became PM, Reid sold his years ago.

That is complete and utter shite..........Blair showed his true colours years before he became leader of the LP let alone PM..

Anybody who is disappointed in Blair as PM was not really paying any attention to politics pre 97......If anything i think hes been better than i thought he'd be.

I remember seeing him on a yoof prog before the 92 election arguing with Simon Hughes...... He made Simon Hughes look like Robin Hood.

 

[nino_savatte]

standard qulifications for advancement in lanarkshire labour

I think Roadie put it better than me.

 

[Roadkill]

That is complete and utter shite..........Blair showed his true colours years before he became leader of the LP let alone PM..

Anybody who is disappointed in Blair as PM was not really paying any attention to politics pre 97......If anything i think hes been better than i thought he'd be.

I remember seeing him on a yoof prog before the 92 election arguing with Simon Hughes...... He made Simon Hughes look like Robin Hood.

I think he really started to show his true colours in the early 90s. Certainly, by the time he was shadow home secretary under John Smith's leadership he was already sounding 'Blairite.'

John Major commented that when he stood for Labour leader he 'looked and sounded like a middle-of-the-road Tory.'

All rather a contrast with the fiercely anti-Thatcher, pro-trade union articles he published in the mid-80s...

 

[Roadkill]

I found spin on in the run-up to the 2001 election.

It's had a big makeover since I last looked at it, but there were some quality little time-wasting games on there back then, such as the William Hague trucking simulator (run over as many immigrants as possible to get a higher Daily MNail approval rating), and hitting politicians with bog rolls as they popped up out of toilets.

It also had a silly little flash game on it called 'Can you move to the right of our man Jack?' Needless to say, you couldn't: every time you moved the cursor up to Jack Straw, he scuttled further and further off to the right, until eventually he got to the far right end of the screen, at which point you'd lost.

What is quite remarkable is that David 'wobbly-eyed cunt' Blunkett, Charles 'fat bastard' Clarke and John the Enforcer have managed to move well to the right of Jack. In comparison to them, weasel-faced Straw looks positively libertarian.

 

[ska invita]

Polly Toynbee has written a good piece about JR, and this bit rang true about the Newsnight focus group:

So what gave Reid the chutzpah to test the water? He must have been excited by a spectacular item on Newsnight. The US pollster Frank Luntz explored the popularity of Labour's possible leadership contenders. He showed brief video clips of each to 30 Labour-minded voters, who turned dials up and down as they watched each contender speak.

Most of the candidates' clips seemed chosen for pallid dullness - except for the crucial two: one showed Brown a bit hesitant when interviewed under pressure after the coup attempt. The other showed Reid in full-on harangue: "Any court judgment that puts the human rights of foreign prisoners ahead of the safety and security of millions of British citizens is wrong! Full stop. No qualification!" Of course Reid beat Brown by miles. (Watch it yourself on the Newsnight website).

As a piece of theatre, it was good TV. As serious polling, it was, according to Deborah Mattinson, the chief executive of Opinion Leader Research, "rubbish". She says she tested that "people meter" polling method for Labour 15 years ago. "It's very crude and you have no idea what they are approving or disapproving of. Of course the group went for the crowd-pleasing rhetoric. What's more, if you have cameras there, the loudest voices speak out and influence the rest."

She was conducting focus groups with women last week. "Reid is seen as very aggressive. Scots, old, bald, and he's hardly known. Brown has undoubtedly suffered a bit in recent weeks - but these ordinary women voters hadn't noticed the coup. He has to be more cheerful, but he has enduring strengths with them."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1883659,00.html

- she also makes the point that reid's hardman image is mainly image (or front), and its hard to point to any real right wing policy commiments or ideas to fall from his lips.

Perhaps, just like the worst alcoholics being tee totallers, so the worst communists are Labour leader material!

 

[ZAMB]

I found spin on in the run-up to the 2001 election.

The WMD thing was too easy, though - I found them [and everything else] on the first try. Funny, though.

 

[ViolentPanda]

That is complete and utter shite..........Blair showed his true colours years before he became leader of the LP let alone PM..

Anybody who is disappointed in Blair as PM was not really paying any attention to politics pre 97......If anything i think hes been better than i thought he'd be.

Maybe people who were "into" politics saw it, but to the "man in the street" Blair sold out once he was in power. To claim otherwise is to go against masses of easily available data showing the voting public's gradual disillusionment with him.

So, far from what I said being "complete and utter shite", it's more accurate than your tbaldwin-centric observations.
Or do you think people should take your pronouncements as read and ignore anything that contradicts you?

I remember seeing him on a yoof prog before the 92 election arguing with Simon Hughes...... He made Simon Hughes look like Robin Hood.

And...?
Are you saying you drew conclusions based on a single appearance on a TV programme? I thought you took politics a bit more seriously than that, balders.

 

[tbaldwin]

Maybe people who were "into" politics saw it, but to the "man in the street" Blair sold out once he was in power. To claim otherwise is to go against masses of easily available data showing the voting public's gradual disillusionment with him.

So, far from what I said being "complete and utter shite", it's more accurate than your tbaldwin-centric observations.
Or do you think people should take your pronouncements as read and ignore anything that contradicts you?

And...?
Are you saying you drew conclusions based on a single appearance on a TV programme? I thought you took politics a bit more seriously than that, balders.

VP please dont contradict me...It only leads to arguements.