Was North Korea's 'nuclear' test a con?

[AnnO'Neemus]

It's hard to know who or what to believe any more.

The US has had North Korea on its axis of evil for some time now, and given its gungho attitude towards weapons of mass destruction, this could have been the publicity coup that both North Korea (think you can boss us around and tell us not to go nuclear? yah boo to you! *Kim Jong-il sticks two fingers up to US*) and the US (see, we told you they were the bad guys, let us at 'em!) wanted.

But where would it have gone from there?

The US has kind of backed itself into a corner with all the stuff over Iran going nuclear, and threatening to take action against Iran. So it would have seemed majorly hypocritical to have not taken against North Korea whilst still pursuing the hard line against Iran. But the US can't take any action whatsoever against North Korea because they are too overstretched militarily in the Middle East (and in any event, I'm guessing North Korea isn't one of the world's significant oil exporting nations).

So, who benefits from this latest news?

Well, the US can turn around and say: we know we said they're scary, but actually they're quite incompetent really, we don't have to be *that* worried about them, it's still Eye-ran that we need to worry about.

By saying it wasn't actually a nuclear test, or that it was a failed one, it lets the US off the hook, they don't have to put up or shut up as they would have had to do if it were confirmed as a successful nuclear test.

The US is like the playground bully who's had his bluff called, and is now trying to bluster its way out of a stand off while saving face.

 

[kyser_soze]

Do I get points for saying 'It'd be a right laugh if they test it and it doesn't work' cos of this?

Ann - the difference here is that, unlike Iran, there's a huge international consensus about not letting the DPRK develop the bomb, so the US isn't out on it's own here. Japan, S. Korea (and I don't doubt several other worried neighbours) is a very difference situation to the ME. It wouldn't just be the US that had to put up or shut up about this, it'd call out China, Russia, UK/EU and everyone else who's shilly-shallying around the issue.

 

[greenfield]

From different reports I'm reading it looks like the PRC gonna go for sanctions at the Security Council. Although I don't buy the 'China's finally got exasperated and is furious with its neighbour' line, it looks like they are miffed to a certain extent. Surely an arms race across the peninsula (and Japan may well be nuclear in all but name already) is the last thing it wants?

 

[jæd]

So it would have seemed majorly hypocritical to have not taken against North Korea whilst still pursuing the hard line against Iran. But the US can't take any action whatsoever against North Korea because they are too overstretched militarily in the Middle East (and in any event, I'm guessing North Korea isn't one of the world's significant oil exporting nations).

Well... North Korea has umpteen zillion regular missiles lined up and pointing at South Korea... If the US was to try anything it highly likely that Seoul would be levelled... So I think everyones a bit glad the US hasn't done anything yet...

This "Have they/Haven't they" is a bit like the missile testing a few months ago... They went off like damp squibs and the purpose of them was to make North Korea look like a player... The same with these nuclear tests..

 

[david dissadent]

Several points.

500kg of conventional explosives is the size of several railway freight carriges. Its big. Initial reports put the detonation at 700m underground. The americans would struggle to pull of a test like that (divine strake comes to mind). Also detonating the explosives close enough together would be a challange as well. If the detonation takes 0.5 of a second it is not going to convince any major power, it will show up on the richtometers.

All indications point to a plutonium bomb not a uranium one. Plutonium is easier to extract from reactors being chemically different to the uranium in a reactor core but much harder to detonate. A uranium bomb can use the gun assembly type that is no great engineering feat (the engineering of a unranium bomb comes with the extraction of the uranuim 235).

A plutonium bomb will have two immidiate points of potential failure. The first is that it requires shaped explosive lenses to compress the metal rapidly enough to allow it to go super critical.This is a fair old peice of engineering. The second easy source of failure is contamination in the plutonium metal. Plutonium itself degrades quickly (for weaponising purposes) and creates by products that poisen the chain reaction. It is not really a good choice for long term storage. The other source of contaminants is poorly refined plutonium metal anyway.

The test may have been rushed while the US is preoccupied with mid term elections and cannot afford anything that spikes the oil prices, plus seems fixated with Iran and tied to Iraq. Technical glitches may have been a accpetable risk to timing.
The Koreans may simply have not mastered the bomb making technology yet or in time for this political window.
They may not have a nuclear weapon.
It is offcourse possible they dotaned a deliberate fissle bomb that would not explode to full power, for reasons known unto themselves. I can think of a few that are plausable. I.e. as a sop to China to have a public demonstration that is ambiguouse enough for factions within China. Other reasons can be dreamt up.

I favour a fuck up myself as they have not really excelled at anything other than printing dollar bills.

 

[gosub]

Does appear to be quite a lot of stuff coming out to say it wasn't what they said it was, not that the UK can talk -did a lot of fibbing to be considered one of the big boys in the playground.


It might be gestalt, but am I the only one that noticed that the the only country that didn't get worked up about this provided the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

 

[pk]

Do they have any oil?

No.

Cunts.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

It's hard to know who or what to believe any more.

The US has had North Korea on its axis of evil for some time now, and given its gungho attitude towards weapons of mass destruction, this could have been the publicity coup that both North Korea (think you can boss us around and tell us not to go nuclear? yah boo to you! *Kim Jong-il sticks two fingers up to US*) and the US (see, we told you they were the bad guys, let us at 'em!) wanted.

But where would it have gone from there?

The US has kind of backed itself into a corner with all the stuff over Iran going nuclear, and threatening to take action against Iran. So it would have seemed majorly hypocritical to have not taken against North Korea whilst still pursuing the hard line against Iran. But the US can't take any action whatsoever against North Korea because they are too overstretched militarily in the Middle East (and in any event, I'm guessing North Korea isn't one of the world's significant oil exporting nations).

So, who benefits from this latest news?

Well, the US can turn around and say: we know we said they're scary, but actually they're quite incompetent really, we don't have to be *that* worried about them, it's still Eye-ran that we need to worry about.

By saying it wasn't actually a nuclear test, or that it was a failed one, it lets the US off the hook, they don't have to put up or shut up as they would have had to do if it were confirmed as a successful nuclear test.

The US is like the playground bully who's had his bluff called, and is now trying to bluster its way out of a stand off while saving face.

I've heard this idea bandied about.

The Republicans are facing mid term elections in a few weeks. It looks bad if GWB and the boys just stood by while one of the charter Axis of Evil members made a nuke. Votes might be lost.

Best way to deal with that: there are two. One: blame Clinton, which they are doing, and two: say it wasn't really a nuke after all, just a big bunch of sticks of dynamite or something, pretending to be a nuclear explosion.

I don't know if anyone has explained why Kim would pretend to be letting off a nuke.

 

[mears]

Even if the US wanted to attack North Korea it doesn't have sufficient forces in the region. The US knows it, North Korea knows it, Europe knows it and China knows it.

Do you people know it?

This is all about extracting concessions from the US. Pay our bills or will build big bad weapons, pay our bills or we start big war.

Uhm, Geroge W. Bush is not going to help with your bills dear leader.

Keep relying on the generosityy of the Chinese.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

I think the money would be better spent on fast-forwarding the missile defence shield they've been talking about.

 

[pk]

Even if the US wanted to attack North Korea it doesn't have sufficient forces in the region. The US knows it, North Korea knows it, Europe knows it and China knows it.

Do you people know it?

This is all about extracting concessions from the US. Pay our bills or will build big bad weapons, pay our bills or we start big war.

Uhm, Geroge W. Bush is not going to help with your bills dear leader.

Keep relying on the generosityy of the Chinese.

Yeah, because the US doesn't give a fuck.

China is the new superpower, USA is broke, broke broke...

 

[laptop]

500kg of conventional explosives is the size of several railway freight carriges.

No it isn't - it'd fit in a few wheelie-bins.

The figure being bandied about is 500T - or megagrammes if you prefer. Which is indeed several rail waggons.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

No it isn't - it'd fit in a few wheelie-bins.

The figure being bandied about is 500T - or megagrammes if you prefer. Which is indeed several rail waggons.

It's kilotons, not kilograms.

 

[david dissadent]

No it isn't - it'd fit in a few wheelie-bins.

The figure being bandied about is 500T - or megagrammes if you prefer. Which is indeed several rail waggons.

My bad: typo.

 

[snorbury]

If it was a con why should there be sanctions, there's no threat just a lot of lying politicians, nothing knew shoorly

 

[Bob_the_lost]

It's kilotons, not kilograms.

No it's not. It's supposed to be in the 0.5 KT range

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

No it's not. It's supposed to be in the 0.5 KT range

"The success of the first test remains in doubt. Only Russia has confirmed North Korea as a member of the nuclear club, after what it says was an explosion of more than 10 kilotons. But the US and other nations say the blast was far smaller. "It is hard to say if it was a very large but traditional type of explosion, or else a nuclear explosion. If it was a nuclear explosion, it was a failed explosion," the French defence minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, said. "However, that does not make it any the less serious."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/article/0,,1892750,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=1

 

[Bob_the_lost]

So in other words i was not only far closer in absoulte terms but realtive terms too? I can live with that.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

So in other words i was not only far closer in absoulte terms but realtive terms too? I can live with that.

.5 and 10 kilotons are quite a bit different.


Where did you come up with that .5 number?

 

[Bob_the_lost]

.5 and 10 kilotons are quite a bit different.


Where did you come up with that .5 number?

1) So are 500KT and 10KT, a ratio of 50:1 rather than 20:1.

2)

The recorded tremor amounted to an explosion equivalent to 550 tonnes of TNT, a South Korean geological institute calculated, making the test device much smaller than the nuclear bombs dropped on Japan in the second world war.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

One thing I'm fairly sure North Korea is not short of is high explosive.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

1) So are 500KT and 10KT, a ratio of 50:1 rather than 20:1.

2)

500 tonnes is half a kiloton.

 

[editor]

Latest reports saying that it was indeed a nuke although one official quoted by the Associated Press said the results could indicate a "nuclear fizzle", rather than a full test.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6050236.stm

 

[Lock&Light]

Latest reports saying that it was indeed a nuke although one official quoted by the Associated Press said the results could indicate a "nuclear fizzle", rather than a full test.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6050236.stm

Without invoking conspiracy theories, I do wonder whether today's vote at the United Nations might have been a temptation for the Americans to 'sex up' this report.

 

[kakuma]

they should just do a precision strike on their government imo

bunch of sick fucks, korea should be korea not north and south korea and the south has been working at peace for years, but at the end of the day, kim jong il has nothing to gain from helping his subjects

 

[kakuma]

fucking disgusting how they claim that they invaded iraq because they suspected that he was trying to build a WMD to fire at israel, but north korea has been testing missiles and building bombs for ages and they pursue diplomacy

 

[Jessiedog]

ATV WORLD evening TV news in HK:



US says radioactivity dedected.

May be indication the nuclear device was involved.

But as others have said, there's politics involved.





Woof

 

[Jessiedog]

Without invoking conspiracy theories, I do wonder whether today's vote at the United Nations might have been a temptation for the Americans to 'sex up' this report.

Looks like the vote was postponed, China/Russia not happy with the wording of the resolution.

Woof

 

[Lock&Light]

Looks like the vote was postponed, China/Russia not happy with the wording of the resolution.

Woof

And quite likely still unconvinced by the evidence of an actual nuclear explosion.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

Latest reports saying that it was indeed a nuke although one official quoted by the Associated Press said the results could indicate a "nuclear fizzle", rather than a full test.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6050236.stm

Considering that the 'fizzle' registered on the Richter scale, I wouldn't want them detonating one of those fizzles anywhere near where I live.