US May Shoot Down N. Korea Missile
- Thread starter TomUS
- Start date
Jessiedog said:I'm not sure.
I think it's an inevitable policy and is a part of a greater strategic plan. To date, China has been very effective at gaining kudos and brownie points from the international community through it's DPRK strategy - you really don't hear much from the west about how China should be doing much more. There could be far greater public noise made over the issue - it's not happening. Thus, it seems to be a fairly succesful strategy at the moment. And the whole six-party talks stuff has presented China in a very positive light.
Better to have a buffer than a war, surely?
Yes. This has been the status quo for many, many years now.
Ultimately, it's unlikely that the DPRK itself will unleash chaos. Beijing has enormous influenf over the country. The survival of the DPRK depends entirely upon China's patronage.
Well, China is the worlds fourth largest economy and the Central govt. has nearly a TRILLION US$ in cash in the bank. A few hundred million every now and again to "own" the DPRK is small change.
The US (as usual) is pushing things at the moment and there must be underlying tensions between the US and China because of this. That said, the restraint on the part of the US in any public criticism of China regarding it's role in game suggests that China must certainly hold a pretty strong hand. I believe it does.
Woof
I agree with most of that. China must be included in any military talks with NK since they retain the most influence. In fact I don't think any US policy towards NK will work unless China is on board.
NK wants direct talks with Washington to just extort more money out of a bunch of suckers. Pay our bills or we will blow up a bunch of shit. Pay of food and our electricity bills or we might blow up the neighborhood. And China is playing the sucker in my opinion.
And when the dear leader drops it could be total anarchy. China is going to have one hell of a mess to clean up one day.
Jessiedog said:
And the response......
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-06/22/content_4734151.htm
So, as yet, China is merely sitting on the sidelines (heheheh,) being "concerned about the current situation", while noting the "position of each party" and urging the parties act in a way "conducive to peace and stability".
Heheheheh. Very much keeping options open then.
As I say, I think China is playing this quite cleverly and is likely to come out smelling much sweeter than the US.
Woof
david dissadent
New Member
Well depends on the situation. First up they may not shoot at the missile if launched. Bluffing Korea into fearing that any failure on there part can be boasted as a successful interception may give them pause not to launch.laptop said:But a humiliating failure would have the opposite effect.
And the SDI tests so far indicate that humiliating failure is the likely outcome.
So what purpose does making the threat serve?
Secondly if Russia is willing to keep quite about a failure to intercept no one may know. The missile is an IRBM not an ICBM. It will be traveling slower and should be launched form a launch pad, not a silo, giving the US a good idea of when it will be launched. Watching for NK spy and tracking boats will give them an idea of its target area. So the US could have several US and Japanese AEGIS SM3 Ticos in the area to make a terminal intercept. The SM3 has something like 5 or 6 successful intercepts of warheads including one exoatmospheric. So it has a reasonable chance of hitting a long prepaired for missile headed to a known destination.
The failures have been in intercepting much much faster ICBMs.
Russia has little reaon to antigonise the US at the moment just to let N Korea be more belligerant. Putin is picking his fights with washington with some sagacity so as they are the only ones who could independantly confirm a failure, lest there be a Chinese boat near the area to 'observe'.
Ofcourse if NK can pull an unexpected launch into a unanticipated target area then america will be near powerless to stop it. Game without frontiers as the song goes.
david dissadent
New Member
One does appear to have broken up and that would be the Taepodong-2. Hardley a suprise mind, its is rocket science after all.DogorKat? said:
And on the 4th of July & overshowing the schuttle launch. Seems Kim wanted to grab some headlines. News is saying there could be a total of 6 missles fired. And the US didn't fire a shot at 'em.DogorKat? said:
They're saying the long range one, the Taepodong-2 failed/malfunctioned.
And anyway, legally it's complex. Depends what agreements they've signed and withdrawn from.
But it's not about legalities.
Its bluster.
Good though. The 4th of July, fireworks, a space shuttle and seven missiles.
Meh!
Sensible that the US didn't try and shoot 'em down - failure (as the US knew, hence the demurity,) would have been catastrophic imagewise.
And you can bet that some (or more) poor bugger(s) in the DPRK has brown trousers at the moment, due to the early demise of the long-range jobbie. More to lose than just a job, methinks
Like I say tho', keep an eye on China here. There's been very little coming from Beijing as yet and what's been said has been neutral (plus a bit of deflection back towards the six-nation talks).
The DPRK is a side-dish.
The entree is the grander game between the US and China.
Read between the lines.
Woof
But it's not about legalities.
Its bluster.
Good though. The 4th of July, fireworks, a space shuttle and seven missiles.
Meh!
Sensible that the US didn't try and shoot 'em down - failure (as the US knew, hence the demurity,) would have been catastrophic imagewise.
And you can bet that some (or more) poor bugger(s) in the DPRK has brown trousers at the moment, due to the early demise of the long-range jobbie. More to lose than just a job, methinks
Like I say tho', keep an eye on China here. There's been very little coming from Beijing as yet and what's been said has been neutral (plus a bit of deflection back towards the six-nation talks).
The DPRK is a side-dish.
The entree is the grander game between the US and China.
Read between the lines.
Woof
zoltan69 said:
It's all fire and brimstone.Jessiedog said:
There is NO immediate (3 - 5 years minimum) nuclear threat from the DPRK. (In my very humble and, probably, predictably wrong opinion, BTW).
It's a smokescreen.
A red herring.
Nonsense.
There's more going on and more at stake. Three years ago, I wrote about the DPRK being used as a distraction from Iraq. Now it's being used as a proxy in a far more important (long term) gameplan.
Read between the lines.
Woof
The US had better develop a new improved anti missile missle that can down its target within 43 seconds of itslaunch, otherwise ......
Interesting to see the DPRK underlining that interference will result in "physical" action - I think that means thousands of heavily armed North Korean Soldiers emerging from the tunnels that they have burrowed under the border , deep inside South Korea - as far as Seoul
Im not Joking here either
Anyone see this ?
possibley the worst filem I have ever seen, but somewhat relevant to my post
Interesting to see the DPRK underlining that interference will result in "physical" action - I think that means thousands of heavily armed North Korean Soldiers emerging from the tunnels that they have burrowed under the border , deep inside South Korea - as far as Seoul
Im not Joking here either
Anyone see this ?
possibley the worst filem I have ever seen, but somewhat relevant to my post
david dissadent
New Member
Is that not likely as much as the Chinese government has several factions with there own agendas and differing veiws on the Hermit Kingdom. Silence is the least damaging gambit for China. It leaves the maximum number of options on the table, and at the minute China needs as much elbow room as it can find to help Iran out of its current mess with the current government in charge. China was a big energy looser when Iraq fell to America, so it may wish to keep its powder dry over the Koreans so they can muster support against US action against Iran with out getting the sorbiquet 'guardian of the axis of evil'.Jessiedog said:
I'd agree with that.david dissadent said:
Except that I think that Hu is actually firmly in control and although there will, of course, be dissenting and varied opinion - which will be listened to - there's no danger of serious discord and the leadership will still accept collective responsibility.
I also think that there will already be a wide range of strategies established, to be engaged accordingly as circumstances develop and all designed to further the overall goal.
It's an interesting moment in history. I wonder how far the US will push this.
Woof
dylanredefined
Not a house elf a tiger
Billions on missle to defence to fight off a non exsistent threat
Jessiedog said:I'd agree with that.
Except that I think that Hu is actually firmly in control and although there will, of course, be dissenting and varied opinion - which will be listened to - there's no danger of serious discord and the leadership will still accept collective responsibility.
I also think that there will already be a wide range of strategies established, to be engaged accordingly as circumstances develop and all designed to further the overall goal.
It's an interesting moment in history. I wonder how far the US will push this.
Woof
The US will push it as far as China holds back its client state, North Korea
One needs to think of this like a good capitalist like yours truly.
This conflict is all about cash. Kim Jong-il needs cash to survive. He needs hard currency to pay his army and provide his people with a subsistence living.
North Korea is isolated by much of the world, but so what? North Korea has very limited natural resource to sell on the open market in the first place. The North Korean economy offers no goods or services to sell prospective states. It must rely on the generosity of other nations.
Kim Jong-il needs other revenue streams so he is not totally reliant on the Chinese for energy, tourism or cash handouts. The missles are in fact a garage sale to provide alternative sources of income to pyongyang so they have some leverage over the Chinese. Potential buyers may be Iran, Syria and Venezuela.
And if Bush caved in and offered aid that is just iceing on the cake. What Kim desires is multiple revenue streams from selling missiles and slopping up aid from the US and China.
Always about the money. Even for a Stalinist.
This conflict is all about cash. Kim Jong-il needs cash to survive. He needs hard currency to pay his army and provide his people with a subsistence living.
North Korea is isolated by much of the world, but so what? North Korea has very limited natural resource to sell on the open market in the first place. The North Korean economy offers no goods or services to sell prospective states. It must rely on the generosity of other nations.
Kim Jong-il needs other revenue streams so he is not totally reliant on the Chinese for energy, tourism or cash handouts. The missles are in fact a garage sale to provide alternative sources of income to pyongyang so they have some leverage over the Chinese. Potential buyers may be Iran, Syria and Venezuela.
And if Bush caved in and offered aid that is just iceing on the cake. What Kim desires is multiple revenue streams from selling missiles and slopping up aid from the US and China.
Always about the money. Even for a Stalinist.
nino_savatte
No pasaran!
Do what? LOL!!!! You realise that there are many different forms of capitalism or are you one of those who thinks that your form is the purest form of capitalism?
Pillock.
david dissadent
New Member
exosculate
a stagger with a beat
Not really surpising is it.
Mears - the good thing is that KJI has other sources of revenue - Industrial scale Counterfeiting of USD Bills, metampetamine of pharmacutical quality and Countefeit cigrarettes of various brands - these are the big money earners for the DPRK - only a few states can afford or desire DPRK made rubbish Missiles & is more of a propaganda tool than an export .
His main revenue focus has a twofold purpose - 1) cash / goods income 2) helping to destabilise the US
As I mentioned earlier, you are not dealing with some tinpot central American Noriega fgure here - The Dear leader is a very smart puppy & know exactly what he is doing.
His main revenue focus has a twofold purpose - 1) cash / goods income 2) helping to destabilise the US
As I mentioned earlier, you are not dealing with some tinpot central American Noriega fgure here - The Dear leader is a very smart puppy & know exactly what he is doing.
dylanredefined said:Billions on missle to defence to fight off a non exsistent threat
The Citizens of thre DPRK believe that they are at war - if not on a daily basis, but at least in the backgound ( see Orwell 1984 for a similar scanario - there is NO war.) - they think the filthy US or Rapacious Japanese would parachute baby killers into their country given any opportunity.
mears said:
1) yes I do funnily enough - otherwise things could be a great deal worse for his neighbours - The Dear Leader does not actually have a Pyscotic desire to go out in a ball of flames along with his country - he wants to survive for aas long as possible - I would sooner have him selling countefeit cigs than weapons if he had to do something & we all can see that his weapons are a PR victory rather than an engineering triumph - who knows what else the DPRK would get into if t were not for their black market activities - remember this fellow is regarded as a bogeyman already - what is to stop him getting involved in slight more heinous things that the odd fake buck or rubbish cigarette ? For the sake of the DPRKs tragic population, anything is worth avoiding some suicidal showdown with serious opposition.Theres nothiung noble in dying for a cause.
2)The world would be a better place without many many leaders IMO - IM sure you can guess one or two of them in addition to Kim - but Im sure you realise that the dear leader is a diversion here - he poses little real threat, apart from a one off suicide excursion into the South - which wont happen for obvious reasons. Some would argue that the Kim family duration of reign is inextricably linked to AmeriKan Foreign policy since WW2.He is a sideshow to the legacy of the cold war and a cartoon villain for the saps who lap up this pre digested media hate campaign. he is an extreme twat granted - 100% - but there are many more who think like him & act like him , 'cept they are considered allies or friends .
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