Apologies to the other thread, from what I can see it seems to have gone way off topic.
So, voting day is nigh and almost two years of campaigning comes to a climax.
The US is expecting the biggest turnout in history tomorrow - between 134 and 140 million people are expected to cast their votes for the next President. States that allow early voting have seen record numbers turn out over the past two weeks. Some early analyses of how these voters break down (such as in North Carolina and Georgia) suggest that enormous numbers of African Americans, Latinos and young people are turning out to vote, all in excess of the usual figures.
Barack Obama has been ahead in practically every poll for the last three months and the final poll of polls on RealClearPolitics puts Obama 51-44 ahead. No Democrat has won more than 50% of the popular vote since Carter in 1976.
Of course, the polls can be wrong. Some people expect to see a Bradley Effect, where voters lie to pollsters about their intention to vote for the black candidate and then break for the white one. On the other hand, we could see the reverse - people who intend to vote for Obama but won't admit it to their friends, neighbours or even pollsters. Numerous other effects are hypothesised which could show up the pollsters on the day but I do wonder whether their methodology takes into account the larger numbers of non-white and young voters expected to turn out. People who may be put down as less likely to vote and given less weight by pollsters may well be turning out more heavily than thought - and of course many of these may have already voted, with Florida early voting figures at around 50% of the total 2004 turnout already.
Because of this, I reckon Obama could manage a landslide on a larger scale than predicted, with maybe one or two genuine surprises - anyone for Georgia or Louisiana turning blue? How about McCain getting turned over in his home state? The Obama volunteers seem to have been swarming everywhere, outnumbering McCain's people many times over. They're busting a gut to squeeze every last vote out they can get and the GOP just don't have the manpower to fight back. Then there's the enthusiasm disparity - Obama's rallies attract 10s of thousands whilst McCain managed only around a 1000 in Tampa the other day when Bush spoke to around 15000 there on the eve of the last election. This is a picture repeated all over, the Republicans simply don't seem to be at all inspired by their man and in the face of Democrat poll leads how many will turn out for him? I certainly think there's a possibility that the soft Republican vote may decide to stay at home when, given the size of the early Democrat turn out, McCain simply has to get his vote out in numbers to stand a chance.
My prediction: Obama with more than 300 electoral college votes and the result obvious fairly early on when Virginia goes for him.
If anyone wants to do stuff on the Senate/House races feel free, I'm knackered after all that!
So, voting day is nigh and almost two years of campaigning comes to a climax.
The US is expecting the biggest turnout in history tomorrow - between 134 and 140 million people are expected to cast their votes for the next President. States that allow early voting have seen record numbers turn out over the past two weeks. Some early analyses of how these voters break down (such as in North Carolina and Georgia) suggest that enormous numbers of African Americans, Latinos and young people are turning out to vote, all in excess of the usual figures.
Barack Obama has been ahead in practically every poll for the last three months and the final poll of polls on RealClearPolitics puts Obama 51-44 ahead. No Democrat has won more than 50% of the popular vote since Carter in 1976.
Of course, the polls can be wrong. Some people expect to see a Bradley Effect, where voters lie to pollsters about their intention to vote for the black candidate and then break for the white one. On the other hand, we could see the reverse - people who intend to vote for Obama but won't admit it to their friends, neighbours or even pollsters. Numerous other effects are hypothesised which could show up the pollsters on the day but I do wonder whether their methodology takes into account the larger numbers of non-white and young voters expected to turn out. People who may be put down as less likely to vote and given less weight by pollsters may well be turning out more heavily than thought - and of course many of these may have already voted, with Florida early voting figures at around 50% of the total 2004 turnout already.
Because of this, I reckon Obama could manage a landslide on a larger scale than predicted, with maybe one or two genuine surprises - anyone for Georgia or Louisiana turning blue? How about McCain getting turned over in his home state? The Obama volunteers seem to have been swarming everywhere, outnumbering McCain's people many times over. They're busting a gut to squeeze every last vote out they can get and the GOP just don't have the manpower to fight back. Then there's the enthusiasm disparity - Obama's rallies attract 10s of thousands whilst McCain managed only around a 1000 in Tampa the other day when Bush spoke to around 15000 there on the eve of the last election. This is a picture repeated all over, the Republicans simply don't seem to be at all inspired by their man and in the face of Democrat poll leads how many will turn out for him? I certainly think there's a possibility that the soft Republican vote may decide to stay at home when, given the size of the early Democrat turn out, McCain simply has to get his vote out in numbers to stand a chance.
My prediction: Obama with more than 300 electoral college votes and the result obvious fairly early on when Virginia goes for him.
If anyone wants to do stuff on the Senate/House races feel free, I'm knackered after all that!
