trouble in thailand looming - thaksin's days numbered?

[fela fan]

For interested observers of world affairs, Thaksin’s time as leader in Thailand looks increasingly up. This is a nasty piece of work, a prime minister in a democracy who has acted in the manner of a dictator for his five years in power, trampling over the constitution, censoring the free press and tv through his business interests. He is the richest man in the country.

He has just sold his main company for over a billion pounds and escaped paying a single baht of tax on it. Maybe this is one act of greed too far. Various academics and freedom groups and so on are outraged. I for one will cheer so loudly folk in brixton will hear if he gets his just desserts any time soon.

The Nation newspaper is a vanguard of revolutionary zeal and fears no-one. There will be a massive rally in Bangkok tonight (Thailand is seven hours ahead of the UK), and if you check the link you can follow events in real time. For the first time in five years I have a real hope that the fucker will get his justice. Thais take a long time to act, have incredible levels of sufferance, but when they’ve had enough, they move very fast.

I wonder what will happen tonight (last time was in 1992 when the government unleashed its soldiers onto the crowds, killing hundreds), and in the coming days…

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/

 

[purves grundy]

Clearly his live TV poverty reduction extravaganza work. What a twat.

I hope the demo achieves its aim. Then I hope the same happens here (fat fuckin chance.)

 

[Jessiedog]

Been following the story.

Not sure this will unseat Thaksin tho'.

Much as the cunt needs a slap......

Let's see.

Who would you see as a viable, or at least likely, replacement fela?



Woof

 

[fela fan]

Who would you see as a viable, or at least likely, replacement fela?



Woof

Can nobody be the answer??!

As it happens, and bearing in mind i've only known one politician that i've ever admired in my whole life for the work they do, there is the governor of bangkok, a main democrat party mp (the official opposition, and the party who have held power for much of my 15 years here) called abhisit. He's about 40 and does not belong to the dinosaur age of thinking that predominates political action in this country.

There is so much to admire about thailand and her people, but politics is not in that list. Before thaksin it was almost comical in a sort of black humour way, but thaksin made it deadly and really really horrible. I've never come across a more arrogant and instantly abhorrent kind of person in my life, and to see him squirm and get angry that people dare to put him in this uncomfortable position is a great joy for me. If nothing else at least he's angry and emotionally charged.

However, i really think enough momemtum has been achieved, and i don't expect him to last much longer. Thais can take ages to react, but once they do things go very quickly indeed. One scenario that the nation paper advanced was that he'd have to flee the country. Unlikely, but tellingly he has despatched his family to london...

Watch this space!

 

[Engineer]

I really really despise that Man . his squarre grinning face leering down from the Morning The Nation regularly puts me off
my breakfast.

I wish the King would tell him to go right now. I wish teh Thai people weren't so thick and actually stopped voting for Thai Rak Thai and switched to teh Democrats.

 

[fela fan]

I wish the King would tell him to go right now. I wish teh Thai people weren't so thick and actually stopped voting for Thai Rak Thai and switched to teh Democrats.

Well, bush and blair, both war criminals, were both voted back in by their populations, as was howard in australia. That stands in contrast to the spaniards who wouldn't let their own war criminal back in.

As for the thai public, no thicker or more intelligent than the anglo countries i've just mentioned. Different context, different reasons for voting. At least the poorer levels of thai society vote according to the demands of their stomachs.

The democrats had been in power, off and on, for the last decade, and were ditched coz thais perceived them as too slow and ponderous in advancing their nation. Thaksin used rhetoric that made them feel proud of being thai and made them feel that their nation would become a bigger name in global politics. Everyone in the world wants to feel good about themselves.

Momemtum is such now that thaksin will go, it's just a question of time, not if.

I don't really know how you can in all honesty write thai people off as being 'so thick'.

 

[nino_savatte]

Aye, this man is scum. I'm so very glad the LIverpool FC board saw sense and didn't take his money.

 

[fela fan]

Aye, this man is scum. I'm so very glad the LIverpool FC board saw sense and didn't take his money.

I'm afraid that word doesn't even begin to do justice in describing him. In fact i'd say it's a very weak one indeed!

I can say, being an avowed hater of politicians, that this man is my most hated. I've never known about another one who engenders so much stress inside of me. Accordingly i had to stop reading newspapers a year or two back so i could keep him out of my consciousness (which happened to actually provide me with unintended benefits!). Even if mates or anyone i met mentioned his name, i told them to change the subject. I daren't go down the path of what he does.

But of course you somehow know. The only pity is that i've not collated the things he's done in his five years in power. It would set a westerner's hair alight by spontaneous combustion just from being so agog at what they were reading. Both the cruel, the inhumane, the nastiness, the stupidity, the maximum power abuse, and the plain bizarre (the latter includes him staying overnight at a rubber-tapper's house in his little village and being photographed in the morning on his way to the shower outside of the house with a gucci towel wrapped around his waist...)

 

[fela fan]

It's now one week later, and as i type the second demonstration is happening in bangkok right now. At the moment it's on saturdays and peaceful.

Click on the link in the first post to see what's going on in real time.

If violence kicks off, thaksin will have to go. In fact if there is no violence then it's most unlikely he will leave office. It's the way of thais and their history. Tyrants here only go once bloodshed has occurred following which the king steps in.

 

[fela fan]

Yesterday (friday) thaksin dissolved the house and has called for a snap general election.

This has bad potential. If he is voted back in, and that's more than likely, the problem simply has not gone away. It's not his party people are calling to be replaced, it is him.

The latest demonstration had been planned for tomorrow evening (sunday), and is still going ahead. I fear it is all going to end in tears for several thais who will get caught up in state-instigated violence. Either at the demo tomorrow, or if he gets voted back in and then in demos following that. The man is most divisive to this country.

Still, thais are showing themselves in a positive light in trying to do something about a criminal leader. They are amassing popular opinion. This story is not going to go away until this thaksin wanker is no longer leading the country. He's worse than thatcher and blair combined.

Peace of course will prevail if the opposition democrats get the mandate in the upcoming election. They have a modern and visionary man at the helm, the current mayor of bangkok. He speaks of pluralism, not one-man rule that thaksin engages in, contrary to a great constitution and the ethics of democracy.

May the people win.

 

[Jessiedog]

But it seems inevitable that the Thai people will reinstate Thaksin.

Who is this other bloke anyway fela? Is there anything to say that (now he's seen how it's done,) he won't turn into as much of a nutter once (in the in likely event that,) he is elected?




(Are you following the Philippines? Mereckons Arroyo has a far greater fight on her hands now that Aquino, Ramos and even the Church are wavering in their support.)



Woof

 

[fela fan]

But it seems inevitable that the Thai people will reinstate Thaksin.

Who is this other bloke anyway fela? Is there anything to say that (now he's seen how it's done,) he won't turn into as much of a nutter once (in the in likely event that,) he is elected?




(Are you following the Philippines? Mereckons Arroyo has a far greater fight on her hands now that Aquino, Ramos and even the Church are wavering in their support.)



Woof

Abhisit, leader of the democrats, he took over from chuan leekpai. He says the right things (but so do most polis though!), but i sense a mood that thais realise they need to change a few fundamental things. Certainly the bangkok electorate are maturing quite quickly these days. The thing is that thaksin held out great promise that the old ways were no longer, but it's slowly dawned on them that maybe he's the most corrupt of the lot. They will feel like they've been taken for a ride, having actually invested some hope in a politician for once, they being naturally wary of the scheming liars.

The middle class and students lead the way, and they speak differently, politically, compared to when i came over here in the first place.

If the election goes as scheduled (the opposition parties are considering boycotting the election), i feel sure thaksin will get back in. But that won't have solved the problem, and that will only leave a violent solution. It's thaksin they want to get rid of, not his party. He knows what he's doing, and it's dividing the country quite badly. He fucked up the south, and now he's doing the same to the rest of the country.

A very nasty piece of work, and i guarantee he will be out of politics by year end.

 

[Jessiedog]

A very nasty piece of work, and i guarantee he will be out of politics by year end.

It would be nice to think so fela.

But given his chances of re-election, when he is, he will be in a very strong position to claim a mandate from the people.

I (sadly) assume he will be in situ at year end (Arroyo, I'm less certain about).



Woof

 

[fela fan]

It would be nice to think so fela.

But given his chances of re-election, when he is, he will be in a very strong position to claim a mandate from the people.

I (sadly) assume he will be in situ at year end (Arroyo, I'm less certain about).



Woof

He will almost certainly get re-elected.

That is when the problems will really begin. Because it changes nothing. Those demonstrating against him, those who are against him, those who want him out of office, will still be left wanting.

He already has a strong mandate from the people. His decision is apparantly clever (for him) and a terrible one for the country. He is dividing thai society, and violence is just around the corner. The political will of the people against misrule by leaders has only been enforced by violence in history. Thaksin is creating the right conditions for an explosion.

I'm watching arroyo btw! Politics is never boring round these parts, and at least you see citizens being active against their tyrants. Unlike in the UK or US for example!

 

[Jessiedog]

He will almost certainly get re-elected.

That is when the problems will really begin. Because it changes nothing. Those demonstrating against him, those who are against him, those who want him out of office, will still be left wanting.

He already has a strong mandate from the people. His decision is apparantly clever (for him) and a terrible one for the country. He is dividing thai society, and violence is just around the corner. The political will of the people against misrule by leaders has only been enforced by violence in history. Thaksin is creating the right conditions for an explosion.

I'm watching arroyo btw! Politics is never boring round these parts, and at least you see citizens being active against their tyrants. Unlike in the UK or US for example!

Frankly, despite Arroyo being cast from the same stone as most East Asian women leaders (daughter of a previous leader,) she actually does have some good ideas - unfortunately, it's impossible to get them passed the rich, corrupt politicians and into law. Further, there are, of course, question marks about her family and her own "winning" of the last elections. Nevertheless, compared to Thaksin, she is a pussy cat.

Thaksin will win the election (the real reason for the oppositions' boycott IMO - they know they can't win,) and then, as you say, the fun will begin.

Do you really think that the opposition have what it takes to oust him through protest? He seems to have a good grip on the military. Sure the opposition can stir up some shit, but the administration should be able to contain it. It's the middle classes, intellectuals, urban dwellers, etc. that have an issue with Thaksin, not the masses - they love him.

What I fear is a Thaksin win and then a descent into violence that will see the country shuddering to an economic halt and a replacement that will likely be just as diabolical for the country. That will not be good: better that Thaksin serves his term and then fucks off. As a rule, I much prefer to see democratic changes of govt. rather than other methods.

Arroyo too may cling to power for a while - there really is no viable replacement as yet. Should "people power" bring down her govt. we will more than likely find ourselves with another another Marcos or Estrada type at the helm.

Gorra love South East Asian politics, eh?



Woof

 

[PrinceToad]

Out in the countryside (where I am) Thaksin is still very popular. They really don't care that much that he's fiddled the law deliberately so as to avoid several billion dollars of tax. I suspect that Chiang Mai is still going to vote for him too. The educated classes, the middle class, and the Bangkok people all hate Thaksin, and are prepared to kick him out, but are probably not numerous enough to swing an election.

The reason for his continued support is that in 1997, most farmers were faced with unrepayable debts: bankruptcy, loss of their land, and starvation looked imminent. Thaksin was elected on granting a moratorium on farm debt: which he did. They credit him with saving them all from starvation, and consider the Democratic party to be the party that didn't care. He's done several other populist measures, like OTOP: most of them bonkers, like everything Thaksin does, but at least he knows he has to show he cares about people in the countryside.

The elite who run the country, the very rich, are as happy with Thaksin as with the opposition. They were suspicious of him at first, but he's done all right by them. I can't believe that they didn't take advantage, en masse, of the dodgy tax breaks as well.

Calling a new general election was probably a smart move. The opposition know he stands a very good chance of winning, which is why they have pulled out. Like Chavez in Venezuela, Thaksin is going to get even stronger if the middle class and urban parties withdraw from politics.

 

[fela fan]

Do you really think that the opposition have what it takes to oust him through protest? He seems to have a good grip on the military. Sure the opposition can stir up some shit, but the administration should be able to contain it. It's the middle classes, intellectuals, urban dwellers, etc. that have an issue with Thaksin, not the masses - they love him.

Not the opposition, no, they've been made pretty ineffectual by thaksin who has utilised and brutalised the constitution (also he was clever: he didn't buy votes, he bought the politicians!).

But, opposition to him will oust him. The opposition to him that has been manifested by the fortnightly demos in sanam luang in bangkok has not been by politicians. Originally it was led by a media owner who was once a pal of thaksin. He was the first man to stand up to thaksin, irregardless of his motives. He lit a hidden candle (so to speak) that has grown stronger. It now encompasses various groupings from society. Thaksin himself has been responsible for bigger numbers from his arrogant dismissal of them. A democracy is functioning when members of the public can, and do, organise themselves to protest. They don't want a new election, they don't even necessarily want the opposition, they just want their corrupt and arrogant leader to step down.

Now, it is true that there is still a lot of support for him, but that is waning. Markets are still the fulcrum of thai society, and are where the word on the street takes place. I heard various comments on thaksin four years ago, and always always positive. Nowadays those comments are not the same. He has been rumbled, his popularity is less, and we're not talking the 'middle classes' here. And the markets to which i refer are in chiang mai, where i live, and thaksin's home town. If his own can turn against him, then anyone in the country can, bearing in mind how society operates over here.

When he wins this new election, only two scenarios are possible: those calling for him to 'get out' will just give up and go back to living their lives again, or violence will prevail. When people rise up and demonstrate against dictators here, history shows that change only comes after violence. And this is where thaksin is being so divisive. He is badly dividing this country, in order to prolong his rule. Whether he claims a public mandate or not, what cannot be ignored is his crimes against the nation, and the constitution.

Never mind him originally buying off two judges who ruled on him and his dodgy dealings when he first got power. His has been an illegitimate leadership from the off. Due process and law will alone be enough to remove him. Sadly it will be violence and mass death again that does it. They're just too fucking arrogant and too fucking greedy for more and more wealth. How many politicians in britain, for example, own about 80 plots of land and homes?

 

[fela fan]

Here is a nice little summary of thailand's leader and its people from a chiang mai magazine (the town where thaksin's from), written by a thai.

The 19 million figure he refers to is the number of votes that got thaksin into power, and from where he claims his mandate. And that's out of a population of 60 million.

http://www.gmorning.info/watch_dog.htm

 

[fractionMan]

I just caught up with this via the BBC and was wondering if it would really happen.

Let's hope so, that bastard's about the last person you'd want running your country.

 

[fela fan]

I just caught up with this via the BBC and was wondering if it would really happen.

Let's hope so, that bastard's about the last person you'd want running your country.

It will happen mate, there is too much momemtum now. It cannot be stopped. The only question in my mind is whether violence will precede his resignation. It always has in the past.

The people have demanded he step down. They can be slow to act the thais, but when they do, they get what they want! It's nothing less than the exercise of people power, and it's fucking heartwarming to see it happen.

That is indeed excellent news if the opposition parties hold to their boycott of the election.

 

[Jessiedog]

I still think it'll end up with Thaksin in situ for the next few years.

But I'm not so sure now.

If you're right fela, then it's gonna be interesting - he won't go without a fight, and he has a lot of guns.

The next few days will prove interesting. The "opposition" have vowed to continue the protests until the election next Sunday. Whether they strengthen or weaken before then will perhaps lend a clue.

Hmmmm.....



Woof

 

[fela fan]

I still think it'll end up with Thaksin in situ for the next few years.

But I'm not so sure now.

If you're right fela, then it's gonna be interesting - he won't go without a fight, and he has a lot of guns.

The next few days will prove interesting. The "opposition" have vowed to continue the protests until the election next Sunday. Whether they strengthen or weaken before then will perhaps lend a clue.

Hmmmm.....



Woof

Well jessie i'm sure! I was here back in 92 when the country had its last 'dictator' in power, when they shot an unconfirmed number of protesters ('we ran out of supplies of plastic bullets'). Those were still the days of coups and an overt military presence within politics. As in 73 and 76 too, there was much more of a state machine to crack, but that's what people power did indeed crack.

The 'opposition' is in reality representatives of various groups (media moguls, students, academics, teachers, middle classes, people's rights groups, and so on), and being so broad it has a momemtum that i see as being unstoppable. By calling for a snap election thaksin has made his last big mistake. In my opinion it will strengthen the resolve of the regular 50-100,000 demonstrators who are determined to oust the man.

If the opposition stick to their guns over this boycott, his position really does become untenable, and in a quick time scale. But bear in mind, it is people power at work here, nothing really to do with politicians. Once thais finally act, they don't give up!

My only hope is that he goes before another violent moment in thai history.

Either way, i give these thai people a lot of credit for creating people power. Some of the much more established democracies of developed nations, naming no examples (!) never do what's happening over here. People power, when unleashed, is unbeatable.

 

[fela fan]

More snippets from the street, ie the chiang mai market place. Four years ago (when i came to this town, and when he was new to the job) sentiment was fully behind the man. Now, it's about half and half. Almost all thaksin's supporters come from the poor, and the rally held at the big stadium here was full of people who'd been paid 500 baht (more than 10% of the average monthly wage) to attend. Those who had banners got 1000 baht...!

There really has been a big swing in the national mood over this man. He promised a new era of politics to a people who were naturally distrusting of polis. He had a load of populist policies that attracted an immature electorate. But he's been rumbled, and the disappointment will be more acute.

Basically the man is fucked. And there won't be a gram of sympathy from any of us foreigners that live here!

 

[fela fan]

There's more. I wouldn't trust the opposition to stick to their stated boycott, but if they do, then thaksin will go much quicker than otherwise...

"Counter punch has floored the heavyweight

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is down for an eight count. The opposition's decision to boycott the snap election, the first such political walkout in Thai history, has turned the tide and left him with just two options: Leave the ring while he can, or switch to suicide mode and continue the fight."


http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/02/28/headlines/headlines_20001705.php

 

[fela fan]

And an expert analysis of the situation at present:

"But Thaksin's eventual rejection of the entire idea was only to be expected and for reasons that are quite obvious. After all, the telecom tycoon-turned-politician is the embodiment of the worst possible malady that could afflict a fledgling democracy like Thailand. An autocratic leader who bankrolled his way to the highest political office by pandering to the unprincipled wants and needs of the attention-deficient, politically apathetic masses, who then proceeded to maximise personal gain at the expense of public interest.


To make sure that his blatant abuse of power proceeded unencumbered by the inconvenience of scrutiny by several constitutionally mandated watchdog organisations, Thaksin set out to undermine and weaken them all with a wholesale buy-up of the Senate, which is responsible for all watchdog appointments."



http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/02/28/opinion/opinion_20001670.php

 

[fela fan]

A lot of momemtum has been gained in the last week or so. I think it's getting close to people power achieving the ouster of a leader they consider on the wrong side of legitimacy and legality. The king has sent the message!

[With reference to the use of the word 'whisper', one of the many things thaksin has said is that if the king whispers in his ear, then he would step down, but only the king could get him to do that.]


"His Majesty the King's mediation of the bloody political turbulence in May 1992 was replayed to millions across the country on the TV Pool last night in a clear "whisper" to the prime minister of a Royal wish for the political bickering to end.


The TV footage of the eight-minute audience on May 20, 1992, showed His Majesty advising then prime minister Suchinda Kraprayoon and anti-Suchinda protest leader Chamlong Srimuang to end their confrontation and work together to rebuild the nation being torn apart by political violence."


http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/03/13/headlines/headlines_20002603.php

 

[Streathamite]

what do the people feel about the King, fela?

 

[fela fan]

what do the people feel about the King, fela?

I'm not even generalising much mate when i say that they love him or revere him. At the very least they respect him. From my point of view, i think he's an excellent man, with a very interesting history. He's been on the throne over 50 years and traditionally and culturally thais respect and admire their royalty. But that just fits in with the hierarchical history they have. If the king is no good, then talk will reflect this in the market place, away from authority's ears.

But this particular king is second only to number 5 who ushered in the modern era for thailand changing the name from siam to thailand (1945) and asking the country to modernise.

The current king has been to every province, wading through floods, meeting with lowly villagers, and has initiated any number of royal projects that have eased the suffering of the poor, and that have advanced the development of the country.

The national anthem is played every day at 8am and 6pm on all radio and tv stations, and before every film in the cinema. We all stand up for that! I like it, i think he is a man worthy of great respect, western style: ie earned by his actions and his deeds.

Top man!!

 

[fela fan]

He's a fine jazz musician, a fine photographer and artist. He loves nature. He is a very wise man, able to dish out some timeless wisdom.

He was born and brought up in switzerland, and only came to thailand at the age of 18 after his brother, who had been king for just a few months, was assassinated. Thai people have some very fine attributes about them, but what can really set them apart in a wise way is if they've been exposed to western thinking and society. If they combine the best of both, then it's a great combo.

However, the rush towards the consumption and debt lifestyle that is the hallmark of western living these days has begun, and it runs counter to the king's efforts at getting thais to live within their means.

Under thaksin personal debt has soared. Hence an american fertiliser company comes to the village and farmers have to buy from them. They no longer have choices coz of their debts. Lots of profit for the americans and the rich thais. This is a microscosm of what happens all around the third and developing worlds.

Ie, the collusion between rich leaders of two countries against the justice and rights of the common people of the poorer of the two countries.

Thais have had enough of the bullshit and crimes and division caused by thaksin. Inevitably the king will play a part in it.

 

[Streathamite]

ta for that bro!
just got this off the beeb; thaksin could be preparing to go
that or it's yet another wriggle