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Tory leadership contest 2024

Who will win the poisoned chalice and lead the tories?

  • Kemi Badenoch

    Votes: 31 35.6%
  • Tom Tugendhat

    Votes: 10 11.5%
  • Priti Patel

    Votes: 6 6.9%
  • Suella Braverman

    Votes: 3 3.4%
  • Jeremy Hunt

    Votes: 4 4.6%
  • Robert Jenrick

    Votes: 13 14.9%
  • James Cleverly

    Votes: 10 11.5%
  • Boris Johnson

    Votes: 2 2.3%
  • David Cameron

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Nigel Farage

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Liz Truss (for the LOLs)

    Votes: 7 8.0%
  • Other choice (mention in thread)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    87
Turd in a hat still holding out. Trying to shake his more centre right image and court the ERG lot by declaring he also wants to pull out of the ECHR
 
my shit is shocked. Tom Tit or Jimmy Dimly next then.
FWIW, my 2pworth....I'd imagine that most of Stride's 16 goes to Tugendhat, seeing Dimly out next time. Then the Dimly support becomes King-maker with split right and 1 "left". If I were a betting man I'd put the money on Tom Tit and Generic put before the membership. Then. of course, the headbangers will choose Generic.
 
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FWIW, my 2pworth....I'd imagine that most of Stride's 16 goes to Tugendhat, seeing Dimly out next time. Then the Dimly support becomes King-maker with split right and 1 "left". If I were a betting man I'd put the money on Tom Tit

Why do you think that Stride’s support goes to Tugendhat rather than Cleverly? Genuine question, I have no idea how the vermin that remain break down into factions, but when it comes to chances against Jenrick (or by some weird chance Badenoch), Cleverly is at least better known.
 
Why do you think that Stride’s support goes to Tugendhat rather than Cleverly? Genuine question, I have no idea how the vermin that remain break down into factions, but when it comes to chances against Jenrick (or by some weird chance Badenoch), Cleverly is at least better known.
All hunch; no evidence. But thinking about the factional (5 families) animosity, I'd wager that those "one-nation" enough to back Stride might not be persuaded that James "all things to all men" Cleverly is their man. As I say, hunch; just as well I'm very anti-betting?
 
All hunch; no evidence. But thinking about the factional (5 families) animosity, I'd wager that those "one-nation" enough to back Stride might not be persuaded that James "all things to all men" Cleverly is their man. As I say, hunch; just as well I'm very anti-betting?

Fair enough. We’ll know before too long and the wonderful thing is that it matters not in the slightest.
 
FWIW, my 2pworth....I'd imagine that most of Stride's 16 goes to Tugendhat, seeing Dimly out next time. Then the Dimly support becomes King-maker with split right and 1 "left". If I were a betting man I'd put the money on Tom Tit and Generic put before the membership. Then. of course, the headbangers will choose Generic.
this all sounds very plausible, except I think the Tit might beat Generic. He just an old army boy, after all, and the electorate like that, despite being more of a softy. Big Bad Bob's rightwingness is a bit of a joke anyway, almost performative. Bad Enoch would win, if she got through.
 
this all sounds very plausible, except I think the Tit might beat Generic. He just an old army boy, after all, and the electorate like that, despite being more of a softy. Big Bad Bob's rightwingness is a bit of a joke anyway, almost performative. Bad Enoch would win, if she got through.

Nah, Jenrick would beat Tugenhat by a huge margin.

There's*some* evidence that there's been an outflow of Tory members to Reform since the election, but a) I don't think it's many, and b) those who are left are just as right wing as those who have gone.

Jenrick might well be obviously purely performative in his swivel-eyedness, but we've been here before: the last time the Tories had the choice between a pro-european, socially liberal centrist pretending to be an anti-european right-winger, but who's corruption was entirely genuine, Vs a pro-european, socially liberal a former spook and army officer, from a distinguished family of public servants, who is married to a foreigner, Johnson beat Stewart quite convincingly.

(Obviously. Stewart didn't get to the membership vote, but there was never any chance they would have voted for him over Johnson)

Nothing I've seen, read, or heard from anyone suggests that the Tory membership is less right wing, mad, and filled with a virulent hatred of everyone who isn't them that they were in 2019.
 
Nah, Jenrick would beat Tugenhat by a huge margin.

There's*some* evidence that there's been an outflow of Tory members to Reform since the election, but a) I don't think it's many, and b) those who are left are just as right wing as those who have gone.

Jenrick might well be obviously purely performative in his swivel-eyedness, but we've been here before: the last time the Tories had the choice between a pro-european, socially liberal centrist pretending to be an anti-european right-winger, but who's corruption was entirely genuine, Vs a pro-european, socially liberal a former spook and army officer, from a distinguished family of public servants, who is married to a foreigner, Johnson beat Stewart quite convincingly.

(Obviously. Stewart didn't get to the membership vote, but there was never any chance they would have voted for him over Johnson)

Nothing I've seen, read, or heard from anyone suggests that the Tory membership is less right wing, mad, and filled with a virulent hatred of everyone who isn't them that they were in 2019.
Agreed; Generic will play the Hague role.
 
Tugenhat is second to Badenoch in the last members polling I can find. Jenrick was fourth (it was when Patel was still in )

Oh, if they had the choice of Badenough or Jenrick they'd go for Badenough - I just think that in the end, if it's a choice between Tugenhat and any old charlatan telling them what they want to hear, despite being transparently dishonest, they'll go for the charlatan.

(Not that I think Tugenhat is much better btw, his rightward drift/pelt over the last 5 years has been very disappointing...)
 
All hunch; no evidence. But thinking about the factional (5 families) animosity, I'd wager that those "one-nation" enough to back Stride might not be persuaded that James "all things to all men" Cleverly is their man. As I say, hunch; just as well I'm very anti-betting?
It’ll come down to what TT and JC offer Mel and his backers…
 
Ah, Mel Stride. A man who sounds like a bookie owned by the Krays in a low budget ITV2 gangster series, or perhaps one of Larry Parnes' "stable" of 50s crooners, melts away into a richly deserved obscurity.

Next stop: shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. If he's lucky.
My bet is he gets chair in return for his votes and endorsement…
 
Aditya Chakrabortty segments the candidates and the wider Tory party into morons (free market Trussites) and bastards (culture warriors), suggesting that Jenrick and Badenoch are on opposite sides. It’s not a bad way of looking at them, although it’s cheating a bit to say that only Farage represents both morons and bastards, or that Tugendhat is a culture warrior for being pro-defence and anti-Russia.

 
Was about to link that article Silas Loom . Quite a good take down. The Tories knowing that their best choice leads a rival party is a good observation.
 
More loon-watching from the Economist via Bale....an interesting take on the mind-set of the backwoodsmen...

 
Quite an amusing, Croydon oriented, account of the recent South London vermin leadership hustings in which Badenoch did not cover herself in glory....

One candidate didn’t bother to show up at all for the south London Conservative leadership hustings held at Clapham Junction (had James Cleverley got wind that the session was to be chaired by Croydon’s very own piss-poor Jason Perry?), while another arrived so late that she alienated many potential supporters.

“The wine and sandwiches were excellent, though,” noted one non-committal attendee.

But it was former business secretary BadEnoch’s late arrival and contemptuous air which really rattled some of the attendees’ cages.

One told Inside Croydon (on conditional of anonymity, naturally), that they had learned that “Badenoch can’t tell the time or, unlike the others, arrange herself to arrive on time.

“When she did arrive late, having delayed the start of proceedings, she interrupted another speaker mid-speech and showed no respect to all the members who turned up (on time).

“She also failed to apologise for her lateness and the disruption it caused.”

So much for “serving the British people”, eh?
 
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