Tory government: how many terms?

[Harold Hill]

Seems to me that the likely runners for the leadership if Brown loses are: David Miliband, Ed Balls, Alan Johnson, James Purnell, Harriet Harman and Peter Mandelson. (Andy Burnham, Ed Miliband and John Cruddas will put themselves forward but are less likely to attract enough support to become candidates.)

And I really can't see any of them beating an incumbent David Cameron, who's a much more astute politician than any of them, except Harman and Mandelson, neither of whom is going to win back the voters that Brown has lost. Not at the first attempt.

Harman would have trouble against Jeffrey Archer, let alone Cameron.


As for the q, 2 terms for sure over 9 years. God knows what labour will look like by then.

If the Scottish issue changes result in independence by then, they'll probably have emrged with the Lib Dems.

 

[sleaterkinney]

One, if they do get in, they have no policies - just a load of hot air.

 

[Wills]

god this thread is depressing.... it's a stone cold cert that the Tories will get power next year, and that's bad enough without having to worry about how many years the misery will last.

 

[Beanburger]

Harman would have trouble against Jeffrey Archer, let alone Cameron.

Harman makes my ears bleed every time she opens her mouth. She's like a mildly less offensive version of Jacqui Smith. Neither of them would be out of place in an HR department. Smug, self-absorbed, sociopaths.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Two I reckon. Labour will need the first term to clear all the dead wood out of their party (yes you Harriet Harman) after which they'll realise that there's nobody left and they need another term out of government to dredge up some half-credible new faces. Milliband will probably get a term as Labour leader before they boot him out.

Purnell would probably fancy himself for a crack at the leadership but we needn't worry about that as I will personally assasinate him if he gets anywhere near running this country

 

[Beanburger]

David Milliband comes across as Tony MKII, so maybe not the best choice for leader. I can see Alan Johnson being popular, but I'm not convinced he'd stand up well under pressure. Sadly, Labour seems rather devoid of talent at the moment. Then again, so do the Tories.

 

[Haller]

So is it just me that thinks Harman is in with a fair chance of becoming leader?

Don't misunderstand me - I'm not in favour of such a thing, and I think she'd be a disaster with the electorate - but I have a feeling that she's got as good a shout as anyone.

 

[Beanburger]

So is it just me that thinks Harman is in with a fair chance of becoming leader?

Don't misunderstand me - I'm not in favour of such a thing, and I think she'd be a disaster with the electorate - but I have a feeling that she's got as good a shout as anyone.

Wouldn't surprise me. If they were stupid enough to elect Gord, then they're stupid enough to elect anyone.

 

[SpookyFrank]

So is it just me that thinks Harman is in with a fair chance of becoming leader?

Don't misunderstand me - I'm not in favour of such a thing, and I think she'd be a disaster with the electorate - but I have a feeling that she's got as good a shout as anyone.

I'd say anything's possible at this point considering the massacre Labour is facing at the next election. Harman managed to win a hard-fought deputy leadership race despite her complete lack or talent or brains, so who knows?

 

[Beanburger]

I'd say anything's possible at this point considering the massacre Labour is facing at the next election. Harman managed to win a hard-fought deputy leadership race despite her complete lack or talent or brains, so who knows?

And all speculation assumes that the leadership contenders will actually have retained their seats.

 

[Haller]

And all speculation assumes that the leadership contenders will actually have retained their seats.

All the frontrunners are in very safe seats, I think.

 

[marty21]

At least 3 and maybe for ever.

Wiped out in England, losing the influence of their seats in Scotland over English affairs (has to happen, the current situation is utterly disgusting) and proposed changes in terms of both boundaries and having fewer MP's means that its possible Labour will be so badly damaged that there will be no coming back.

And thats without the very likely chance of the party imploding on itself.

Happy days

lol, the Tories might yet implode over Europe (they love a Europe implosion) Boris is already at odds with Dave, and they seem to be keeping Ken Clarke well away from the cameras

 

[Haller]

lol, the Tories might yet implode over Europe (they love a Europe implosion) Boris is already at odds with Dave, and they seem to be keeping Ken Clarke well away from the cameras

I'm not convinced. Over the last couple of days, since the Irish vote, there's been a massive media effort to reveal faultlines running through the Tory Party on Europe, and the net effect seems to have been to solidify the leadership's position. Yesterday even Boris Johnson was rowing back, and if you can't get indiscreet boat-rocking quotes from him, then the issue is probably resolved.

 

[marty21]

I'm not convinced. Over the last couple of days, since the Irish vote, there's been a massive media effort to reveal faultlines running through the Tory Party on Europe, and the net effect seems to have been to solidify the leadership's position. Yesterday even Boris Johnson was rowing back, and if you can't get indiscreet boat-rocking quotes from him, then the issue is probably resolved.

they are definitely trying to impose a party line - although Boris did go off message before getting back on it, it's a pressure cooker for the Tories though, particularly with Mad Dan Hannan, he loves the limelight

 

[marty21]

http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/10/boris-exdeputy-pleads-guilty-to-fraud.html

probably won't damage the Tories too much, does damage Boris, but he seems to blunder on, one of his ex deputies has been convicted of fraud.

 

[Haller]

they are definitely trying to impose a party line - although Boris did go off message before getting back on it, it's a pressure cooker for the Tories though, particularly with Mad Dan Hannan, he loves the limelight

Boris has probably done his bit now - he's signalled to the right that he's on their side, and now it's time to show loyalty and discipline. He's angling for the leadership, but not yet.

For him to win through, Cameron has to win the next election and then screw up. It's a plausible scenario: deeply unpopular Tory government (as they certainly will be by 2012, when the next mayoral elections come up), senior figures panic and turn to the one populist politician they have, Boris gets parachuted in as prime minister.

Plausible, but unlikely. Cameron is made of sterner stuff than Duncan Smith, Osborne and Clarke wouldn't back Johnson, and, in those circumstances, Hague would fancy his own chances of a comeback.

The other option is that Cameron loses the election after next, when Boris would be in with a very good shout.

And Hannan would also be in the running. He's five years younger than Cameron, and time is on his side. Whether he amounts to anything more than son-of-John-Redwood though is more doubtful. But if the Tories lose in 2014-15, we may be into a system of PR, which leaves the entire party system up for grabs.

 

[marty21]

I think there have been rumours that Boris won't stand for Mayor in 2012, so he could have his eye on the main prize, Hannan is just too looney tunes to get in as leader, he'd need a super safe Tory seat to even get elected as MP, he is a very divisive character

 

[Quartz]

it's a stone cold cert that the Tories will get power next year,

I disagree: Cameron has shown himself to be a prat when pushed. Remember his idiocy over grammar schools? Labour should be very thankful that David Davis didn't win.

Floating voters are choosing the Conservatives because they're 'not Labour'. If the Lib Dems show that they're a better 'not Labour' than the Tories then things become very interesting indeed. Alternatively, if Cameron is tested and proved, then the 'not Tory' vote could switch from Labour to the Lib Dems, again with interesting results. And then there's tactical voting to consider...

The next year is going to be very interesting, politics-wise.

 

[Quartz]

Hannan is just too looney tunes to get in as leader, he'd need a super safe Tory seat to even get elected as MP, he is a very divisive character

Right now? Yes. But what about the long term? He's currently building is political base, from which he can then expand and compromise -'politics is the art of the possible' after all. And if he learned the oratorical skills of William Hague, then he could well be Thatcher Mark 2.

 

[weltweit]

How many terms? I am not yet convinced they will win their first term yet!

 

[Beanburger]

How many terms? I am not yet convinced they will win their first term yet!

I refer the right honourable gentleman to my opening post:

If we assume the Tories will win the next election.....

 

[kabbes]

Nick Clegg is going to be prime minister. He already told us so.

 

[Sasaferrato]

ou need a number bigger than three.

 

[Beanburger]

ou need a number bigger than three.

 

[beeboo]

I think that now the Tories have started to reveal what their policies are, they will go down in the polls..

I think their polling figures have dropped over the course of the conference, rather than the usual conference bounce.

Maybe people are only looking for "not labour" and will be turned off by Tory policy...

Although i'm personally forecasting a narrowosh conservative majority - maybe 30 seats or so.

 

[Haller]

I think their polling figures have dropped over the course of the conference, rather than the usual conference bounce.

Maybe people are only looking for "not labour" and will be turned off by Tory policy...

I don't think that it was intended as a conference for short-term poll advantage. I'm not even sure it was intended to put forward policy, though there was a lot of it, compared to the Labour conference. The most important thing they wanted to achieve was for Osborne to emerge as a credible alternative chancellor, to complement Cameron who's already established as a potential prime minister.

 

[Rod Sleeves]

If we assume they get to form a minority, or a small majority (20 seats or less) government in 2010, and Labour's collapse increases due to infighting, which I think it may do if a credible unity leader isn't found, then the Tories would do well to keep their heads down, do a bit of tinkering, concentrate on low key and popular cuts then they should call a snap election after 18 months to two years to increase their number of seats to a more comfortable amount.

 

[Skimix]

As a Tory (yes I know, leave it out!) there are two things that worry me...first I'm not entirely convinced by Dave as a global leader compared to say Obama or Blair who, whatever you think about him, could hack it on the world stage.

Second is that whoever makes up the new govt is going to be v unpopular cos of all the cuts and tax rises that are going to be required to make up for Gordos spending....

 

[Beanburger]

As a Tory (yes I know, leave it out!) there are two things that worry me...first I'm not entirely convinced by Dave as a global leader compared to say Obama or Blair who, whatever you think about him, could hack it on the world stage.

Second is that whoever makes up the new govt is going to be v unpopular cos of all the cuts and tax rises that are going to be required to make up for Gordos spending....

Now now. Let's not get too partisan. I seem to remember the last Tory government spending recklessly when they were busy selling off our nationalised industries, and sticking the profits into tax cuts that had no future funding. Well, the profits that they weren't pocketing through the vastly undervalues issue price of the shares, that is.

 

[sihhi]

ou need a number bigger than three.

Three could well be it, lots of factors.