Tory Death Spiral

Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by Kaka Tim, Jun 11, 2017.

  1. Threshers_Flail

    Threshers_Flail Well-Known Member

    I think it's because more deserving candidates were overlooked when he was promoted to the Defence Sec job, he hadn't served enough time in a lesser role to be seen as a genuine candidate.

    If he goes questions again have to be asked about May's judgement. She's going pretty soon, surely?
    Badgers likes this.
  2. Sprocket.

    Sprocket. No matter where; of comfort no man speak..

    He looks like an infamous, former chicken farmer!
    Ax^ and Badgers like this.
  3. mx wcfc

    mx wcfc Well-Known Member

    Likewise I find this baffling. Possibly the bookies, not being complete idiots, have installed him as favourite to encourage people to back a hopeless cause.
    Ax^ and Badgers like this.
  4. Lord Camomile

    Lord Camomile Lemonade socialist

    I think he's got the same thing going as Johnson - he's a caricature, good for a bit of a giggle (to those who aren't already predisposed to hate him), and generally a bit more 'fun' than other politicians.

    I'm not saying any of this is what I look for in a person, but I think superficially he appeals to a lot of people who don't really care to get into the details of politics*.

    *Caveat: this is massively broad strokes and an at least in spirit an honest attempt to place no value judgement on those it attempts to describe. Lots of people just want to get on with their life and leave 'Politics' to someone else.
  5. Badgers

    Badgers Mr Big Shrimp!

  6. Raheem

    Raheem Well-Known Member

    Plus Telegraph and Mail. That's who's going to be voting.
    Badgers likes this.
  7. agricola

    agricola a genuine importer of owls

    They don't like him because he stands out as talentless self-promoting nonentity, even in a Party (and Parliament) that is chock full of them. Also much of their electorate is old, and can therefore remember times when Tory MPs had to do a bit longer than two months at the MoD in order to be PM.
  8. Threshers_Flail

    Threshers_Flail Well-Known Member

    This. I wish I had his self-confidence tbh.
  9. agricola

    agricola a genuine importer of owls

    I don't. His type of self confidence is the sort that Custer, Kaiser Wilhelm or Q.Varus had.
    campanula, Nylock, Sue and 4 others like this.
  10. Fingers

    Fingers From Tuscany SE22

    The Tories have just walked into their next disaster. Could be an interesting week.

    teqniq likes this.
  11. Puddy_Tat

    Puddy_Tat meh

    I thought the official term was "swivel eyed loons"
  12. Sue

    Sue Well-Known Member

    You say potato, I say potatto but I'm sure we can both enjoy the absolute mess the Tories currently find themselves in.
  13. bemused

    bemused Well-Known Member

    Nadine seems rather unlikeable.
    Badgers likes this.
  14. Libertad

    Libertad Would it help?

    Pickman's model likes this.
  15. 8ball

    8ball Considerably more oppressed than yow

    Gah!! :mad:
    Badgers and Pickman's model like this.
  16. ska invita

    ska invita back on the other side

    So seems that at some point before too long, summer at the very latest, theyll reach the no confidence letter level....what happens then? A no confidence vote, or does it go straight to an internal election?
    I reckon May would scrape through a no confidence vote. Its going to be carnage whatever happens - right in the middle of the trade negotiation bit... you have to laugh
  17. ska invita

    ska invita back on the other side

    The answer to my question is:
    "Should the number reach 48, the 1922 chairman will consult with May and determine the date of a confidence vote “as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing”. If the Conservative leader wins a majority in the subsequent ballot she remains in office and is rewarded with a year’s immunity. If she loses, she is obliged to resign (unlike a Labour leader) and barred from standing in the leadership election that follows."

    I guess the question of when this might happen is Do the Hard Brexiters want to get in there early before trade negotiations get too far down the line (ie now) or wait till the negotiations look like they aren't going their way enough, which would be later in the year but might cause maximum damage and disruption....might possibly go for maximum disruption as a way to more likely crash out?
    Badgers likes this.
  18. Kaka Tim

    Kaka Tim Crush the Saboteurs!

    yeah - i think thats exactly whats happening. Apparently they are already very close to the 48 figure - so its only a matter of time before the confidence vote threshold is reached.
    If it doesn't happen before the may elections and the tories dont do well (pretty much an odds on certainty - esp with labour/momentums abilty to mobilise people in a low turnout election) then the vote will surely happen.
    Then the toires have to decide weather to give her another year or eject her. I rekcon they will get rid -the groans and moans and general despair at her leadership is getting louder by the day - also she might win the confidence vote, but still not comfortably enough for her to realistically carry on.

    Pretty sure it will be the end of may by the end of may - then the fun really starts. With a good chance of a brexiter taking the leadership and the tory remainers losing their shit and very powerful forces within the establishment - business, finance, civil service - quailing at the prospect of a hard brexit.
    Tory split? General election in the Autumn?
  19. ska invita

    ska invita back on the other side

    all of that kind of thing seems possible...the most convincing narrative i heard about the brexit trade negotiations was that it would look like an impasse with a lot of hot air and then right at the last minute there'd be a degree of give and take from both sides. That requires an atmosphere of cool heads and stability back in the UK. Lol.
    If hard brexit rebels decide to go all out destruction then that would definitely trigger a general election I think.
    Anything could happen in the next half hour....
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2018
    Badgers likes this.
  20. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    What are you basing that on? The 2016 May elections were reasonable for Labour but nothing more and the 2017 council elections pretty poor.
  21. Kaka Tim

    Kaka Tim Crush the Saboteurs!

    The way labour's supporters mobilised during the general election and the big surge in support for labour since the 2017 locals. I imagine activists will be targeting key council seats, getting the vote out etc - and they have the numbers and reach for that to make a difference - especially as turn out in the locals is significantly lower then at GEs.
    Badgers likes this.
  22. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    None of that shows that Labour/Momentum have the ability of mobilise people in low turnout elections though.
    The pattern of turnout at general and local elections is completely different, it's well known that local elections are not a good guide for general elections and vice versa.

    You can't simply assume a increased turnout (nor the pattern of voting) from a general election, and a rather unique one, will carry over to local elections (and moreover local elections which don't coincide with any other elections). There was a strong mobilisation of the vote that helped Obama get elected in 2008, but that didn't help the Democrats in 2010, the mobilisation didn't carry over.
  23. Kaka Tim

    Kaka Tim Crush the Saboteurs!

    Not sure if the democrats and labour are that comparable - labour members are constituency based and active locally - not sure if that's the same set up in the states. Labour have a half a million newly enthused activists who will be getting people out to vote and that has the potential to make a difference - as it did in the GE. We'll see.
  24. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
    Libertad and Badgers like this.
  25. Wilf

    Wilf Meeting few of his KPIs

    A widow's twin peaks.
    Badgers likes this.
  26. Teaboy

    Teaboy It definitely looks brighter over there..

  27. ruffneck23

    ruffneck23 Well-Known Member

  28. DotCommunist

    DotCommunist slowtime

    they can fuck off with this abuse in public life thing
  29. ruffneck23

    ruffneck23 Well-Known Member

    its just her crusade to censor the internet, she has wanted to do this for a long time, now she has a half baked excuse
  30. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

    Hmmm yes, I suspect another agenda.
    existentialist likes this.

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