Tonight Pensioners will die of the cold

[audiotech]

I sometimes hear pensioners in the local Wilkinsons hardware shop bemoaning the end of the 100 watt lightbulb, so some aren't that bothered by energy costs and it appears not the planet either. Older women too seem to iron everything.

Seriously though, there are about 20 percent of the old who live in poverty.

 

[elbows]

OK here is a simple starting point to my research.

http://www.poverty.org.uk/67/index.shtml

The 98/99 and 99/00 winters featured a lot more deaths. Flu cases were much higher in those years. Cold weather and changes to the flu virus make it more prevalent and deadlier every so often. There may be some link to flu survival rates and fuel poverty, but its not likely to be highly significant.

And that site itself says 'Overall adequacy of the indicator: medium. Whilst the data sources used here are reliable ones, there is no data providing evidence of a direct causal relationship between winter deaths and energy inefficient housing.'

 

[belboid]

Really? Keeping warm is rather useful for fighting (and avoiding) flu, so I'd suspect it was definitely significant.

 

[gentlegreen]

Seriously though, there are about 20 percent of the old who live in poverty.

As I near retirement - with the promise of a reasonable pension - probably around £12K if I stay at work 'till at least 60, and currently live comfortably enough on that, I can't begin to work out how anyone could live on half as much (state pension).

 

[elbows]

Really? Keeping warm is rather useful for fighting (and avoiding) flu, so I'd suspect it was definitely significant.

Ive not seen much evidence for that. Getting a flu jab and avoiding contact with people are the main ways to avoid the flu. How often someone leaves the house in winter probably has a much stronger correlation to their chance of catching flu, than the temperature of their home.

And whilst Im in no way trying to suggest that living in conditions that are too cold is not detrimental to health, I doubt the ambient temperature plays a strong role in determining whether the vunerable victims of flu win their battle against it, especially as many of them die in hospital from secondary things like pneumonia.

 

[elbows]

Seriously though, there are about 20 percent of the old who live in poverty.

Thats pretty grim. Any idea what the percentage is for people who havent reached retirement age yet? Im wondering how many were poor all their lives, with the associated detriment to health, compared to how many sunk into poverty once they retired.

How much would it cost the country to double the pension anyway? I would support such a move for a start, although Im sure there would be a few problems as the demographics of this country are worrying. If we think we have let our pensioners down so far, just wait till all the baby boomers are retired.

 

[elbows]

I doubt the ambient temperature plays a strong role in determining whether the vunerable victims of flu win their battle against it

I could be talking shit there, will try to find out.

 

[audiotech]

I can't begin to work out how anyone could live on half as much (state pension).

That's something I have to look forward to.

 

[gentlegreen]

That's something I have to look forward to.

Sorry to hear that .

Is there no way you could save enough from now on to add to the state pension ?

 

[elbows]

Here are some free things we can all do to avoid some preventable deaths of old people due to illness in winter:

Take your own illnesses seriously:
Do not go to work when you are ill (I know this can be hard as society sends mixed messages about this)
Do not visit elderly people if you are ill
Cough into your elbow (to avoid spreading germs on hands)
Nag old people you know to get the flu jab
Kids shed a lot more virus than adults - weigh up the emotional cost of granny not kissing her grandson for a while, vs her dying of flu. Try to avoid dragging snotty kids round the supermarket. Keep them off school by an amount that matches the contagion realities as opposed to the inconvenience and impracticalities of caring for them in the day if you work.

 

[belboid]

Yes yes yes, but none of them alter the fact that people die because it is cold and they can't afford to heat their homes. In fact they are all and explicit diversion from that simple and straightforward message.

 

[belboid]

actually, not 'yes yes yes' but rather:

Do not visit elderly people if you are ill

leave your sick friends all on their own, lovely

Cough into your elbow

just plain bollocks

 

[elbows]

I am also wondering how the quality of the NHS compares to fuel poverty and poor housing stock in terms of cause of death.

And apart from the state of the NHS, there is also the attitude of people towards bothering to save the elderly. Me being insensitive and flippant in an earlier post about letting the elderly die, doesnt actually cause death, whereas attitudes in the NHS must make quite a difference, I know with my Mums parents the attitude was not to really try very hard to save them. And despite the ranting in the media about assisted suicide, right to die, and the way that actually stands legally in this country, Im sure doctors help people to shuffle off all the time. Dr Harold Shipman was an extreme example that was all wrong, but I expect morphine injections 'for the pain' and doctors 'playing god' feature in the wider scheme of things.

 

[elbows]

Yes yes yes, but none of them alter the fact that people die because it is cold and they can't afford to heat their homes. In fact they are all and explicit diversion from that simple and straightforward message.

Why is it seen as a diversion? If the interest is in saving as many people as possible, then efforts should be made on all fronts.

I do not believe that presenting a balanced picture, with practical advice on saving lives on other fronts, is wrong or should distract from the mission to get people out of the cold.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I could be talking shit there, will try to find out.

Cold temperatures are definitely associated with greater mortality. e.g.

A known relationship exists between temperature and mortality.1–5 In general increased death rates occur principally in the elderly6 and the relationship is considered to take the form of a ‘V’ or a ‘U’ shape, with the lowest death rates occurring on days of moderate temperature and highest rates at either end of the temperature range.7,8 In the UK a 2% increase in mortality has been estimated for every one degree fall in temperature from 18°C.9 Most of the excess mortality is due to respiratory, cardiac and cerebrovascular disease. Furthermore, the effect on these diseases of cold temperatures has been reported to occur over prolonged periods, in some cases up to a few weeks duration.10,11

A study of the relationships between registered deaths in the elderly and weekly data for the incidence of respiratory disease presenting to general practitioners (GPs) found a strong positive association between the two health outcomes.12 Despite this, one study could not establish any relationship between environmental factors and accounts of asthma or exacerbation of chronic bronchitis on the Swiss sentinel reporting system.13 However, more recent work from the UK has shown that a drop in temperature is associated with a rise in bronchitis consultation rates some 10–17 days later.14

http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/31/4/825

 

[elbows]

leave your sick friends all on their own, lovely

Yes the social nature of humans gets in the way of effectively fighting the transmission of disease.

When my granddad died, it was one of those bad flu years on the above graph. I had the flu, and I decided not to attend his funeral, even though I wanted to pay my respects, because I did not want to be irresponsible and risk causing the death of other elderly mourners.

In reality people will not isolate themselves totally, but I seriously believe people should at least consider these things more seriously, have a long hard think, before just carrying on as usual when they are sick.

 

[elbows]

Cold temperatures are definitely associated with greater mortality. e.g.

http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/31/4/825

Thanks for the info. I didnt quite mean that though, I know that cold has a role in many health issues, and in the transmission of the flu, I was specifically questioning how great a role it played in the chance of people who are at risk of death from flu, surviving.

For example, as I understand it, one reason flu hits harder during winter is because the virus likes our throat and respiratory system to be within a certain temperature range, in order that we be most compatible with the virus. . When we go outside on a cold day, and mix with other people, the virus loves it. Even if we all had our houses heated to a temperature flu doesnt love, we would still see a big rise in flu and other respiratory problems during the cold times.

Anyway I will still conclude that I am least partially full of shit, because the chances of successfully fighting flu will be partly down to our general health, and a home that isnt warm enough is bad for that.

 

[audiotech]

Sorry to hear that .

Is there no way you could save enough from now on to add to the state pension ?

I earn £12,000, so any savings from that will be minimal, if at all.

I'm depressed now.

 

[gentlegreen]

.

 

[elbows]

just plain bollocks

OK you said that in relation to my tip to cough into your elbow. Please say why you think it is shit. We should try to stop our coughs from having maximum reach, which means covering the mouth. If we cover it with the hands, we run the risk of spreading via touch.

I didnt just come up with this idea myself. The first I heard of it was from professor John Oxford, government flu expert. Please watch the video on the following BBC story, it has a bonus feature, his hair, and Ive essentially nicked most of my tips about flu from him:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7797775.stm

 

[gentlegreen]

I cough down my tee shirt.

 

[belboid]

Why is it seen as a diversion? If the interest is in saving as many people as possible, then efforts should be made on all fronts.

I do not believe that presenting a balanced picture, with practical advice on saving lives on other fronts, is wrong or should distract from the mission to get people out of the cold.

because most of your list is just plain obvious to people who are already too poor to pay for their heating, and hence is of almost no value whatsoever. It's only 'value' is in making people go 'well they should be doing that before they get any more money' (a la Widdecombe, was it, a few years back) and so avoiding any need to demand higher payments. So both patronising and somewhat reactionary.

 

[elbows]

because most of your list is just plain obvious to people who are already too poor to pay for their heating, and hence is of almost no value whatsoever. It's only 'value' is in making people go 'well they should be doing that before they get any more money' (a la Widdecombe, was it, a few years back) and so avoiding any need to demand higher payments. So both patronising and somewhat reactionary.

OK I see your point there, although I disagree that the list is obvious, people seem to ignore the obvious ways to prevent diseases spreading. The uptake of flu vaccine by the elderly is quite impressive, but still almost a third dont get the jab. I wonder if there are any figures looking at whether the uptake rate for flu jab relates to wealth.

But yes, if the points Id been making were an attempt to ignore the issue of poverty and keeping pensioners warm, and push all the responsibility back to individuals, then it would be appropriate to be disgusted. Whereas Im only bringing up these other issues because of the total elderly excess winter death stats that are being used. I am more than curious to know how many of these deaths can be prevented by eliminating poor housing & heating & inability to pay bills. I also want to know how much the fear of the cost of bills puts people off heating, as opposed to their actual ability to pay. But I already said that I am more interested in fixing the problem than getting more statistics to argue about, so I will shutup now in case I am derailing things. But when in future threads, people sneer at unsexy things like insulation as being an important art of the solution, I will raise my voice.

 

[ViolentPanda]

uhh, pensioners do require a bit more heat tho dont they? its one of the things about being old.

have a pop at treelover for his stupid and counter-productive attacks on people prioritising causes other than his most important one by all means, but your wide of the mark in attacking him for pointing out that pensioners will be the worst to suffer over here (well, worst except for those who are refugee's forced to live on the streets/on friends' floors or other homeless anyway)

Dude, there's a whole host of people in the claimant population who're adversely affected by cold just as badly as pensioners: kids whose parent(s) claim, people with circulatory and respiratory illnesses, diabetics. I could go on...
And guess what? They won't be seeing £300 to keep them warm.

 

[belboid]

true, they should all get the extra payments too. seems a tad harsh to have a go over that when there are so many better reasons to do so tho

elbows - the problem with your view, as i see it, is that by shifting the main responsibility onto the individual (who already most likely knows those things anyway) government is let off the hook. put money into promoting sensible 'lifestyles', for want odf a better word, but it won't make much difference at all. more actual cash would.