Time for Scotland to go

[Azrael]

After the further advances of the SNP in the Euro election, is it now not time for a referendum for a straight yes or no for independence for Scotland?

Scotland wants to leave the Union and the EU? Talk about a double-whammy! Of course that's not what's meant. It's absurd to talk of "independence" when Scotland will swap Westminster for Brussels.

As a supporter of the Union I believe we must change in order to conserve. The West Lothian nonsense must be remedied by placing Scotland and England on an equal footing. A federal system that gives Scotland and England domestic independence should be negotiated as a matter of urgency. Along with Wales and (possibly) Northern Ireland, such a move could strengthen the Union.

This would require our membership of the EU to be addressed, so I don't expect it to happen. Instead there'll be more misty-eyed Sir Walter Scott /Rabbie Burns/Braveheart nonsense from the SNP, combined with anti-Caledonian bigotry from many of the English, and the whole sorry mess will drag on until the Union dies as sordidly as it arose. What an end.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Wouldn't Scottish independence mean endless Tory governments for England because there's lots of safe Labour seats?

MrFLB:

This is true:

Labour hasn't won a general election in England for fucking years because Wales and Scotland always swing it. Cameron will probably be up for it but the Queen will probabloy have something to say on the matter.

 

[lewislewis]

MrFLB:

"The could have thier independance now, and then still send the oil and gas this way as that is the direction of the piplines.

They arn't going to hoard the oil and gas, and most likey are going to be selling it to the English, and besides most of the companies (BP, TOTAL, GDF, EXXON MOBIL etc) are all fucking private anyway, the govt just sell the liscenses.

Basically it's like maining: the govt say "here's this land, if you find anything htere it's your's", they'll have to pay taxes but there's not that money in it, they'll get some taxes but itwon't be anywhere enough near to se the public purse balance.

There's more money spent on Scotland than Scotland raises."

The licenses and revenues cost hundreds of millions of pounds. The oil was private under Thatcher too and still earned billions for the Treasury.

There is loads of money in fact. During 2008 the Treasury earned just under £10bn in revenue from the North Sea oil and gas, and there are still a few decades left.

Scotland 'needs' to find £8.5bn a year to keep current levels of public expenditure going. Now, an independent Scotland wouldn't need to pay its share towards nuclear weapons or a number of other types of expenditure, plus they'd still have had £1.5bn left to play with in 2008. I believe the SNP's policy is to invest that bit into an Oil Futures Fund like Norway has, for when the oil and gas runs out (and for when the oil price changes!).

 

[lewislewis]

MrFLB:

This is true:

Labour hasn't won a general election in England for fucking years because Wales and Scotland always swing it. Cameron will probably be up for it but the Queen will probabloy have something to say on the matter.

The (weak) SNP position is to keep the Queen as head of state.

 

[sonny61]

Don't be a moron. Scotland has massive oil and gas reserves in proportion to its population of 5 million people. Enough to fund itself so fuck off with your nasty anti-Scottish 'cut them loose and lets keep our subsidies' claptrap.

You should support the right of all nations to self-determination, wherever people decide that they are a nation they have the right to advocate whatever constitutional position they want through a referendum.

I despair of some people based in England I really do. The ONLY time they are positive about Scotland and Wales is in a spiteful, shitty, nasty 'we've been keeping you afloat' way. Scottish oil fuelled the Thatcherite economic boom, literally billions upon billions of pounds worth of oil and gas every year.


Scotland is the only oil-producing country in the world to have gotten poorer.

Some of the comments on this thread are almost as depressing as when a Scottish poster challenged me on this forum about the legality of Scotland having rights to the oil in its own waters. Yes, a poster from Scotland talking his own country down and trying to 'prove' that natural resources which could fund the welfare of his own people in fact belonged to a different state. Talk about self-loathing.

We have the same problem in Wales. A servile attitude towards colonial masters in England. The people of England are our fellow workers and we need to unite across borders with all nations to achieve change on a transnational level. But we simply cannot do so until we have an economy in Wales which is designed to serve our own people instead of transferring wealth out of Wales to the south-east of England. Have a look at a map of 'our' railway network and you'll see what I mean.

I don't express these feelings lightly, I am not a cultural nationalist or Welsh speaker or traditional Plaid supporter- my family is a 'Labour' one. I am fully aware that we need an internationalist Wales, and I grew up going to meetings organised by the SWP and SP (there are even posters on this forum who knew me at that time), rather than ones organised by the nationalists. But devolution has proved to me that progressive politics can happen once Westminster's shackles are removed.

I want to see a better society in my lifetime and parties like Plaid and the SNP are taking measures that are showing an alternative to Labour and the Tories. I feel that independence and the end of Britain is much closer to happening than an international socialist revolution. I don't want my children to be born into a society where 30 minutes from my house are literally some of the poorest wards in the whole of the UK and unfortunately the whole of the EU. A damning indictment of our membership of the United Kingdom which has raped our country of every single natural resource we have and sent our sons to fight endless foreign wars to further the imperialist aims of the ruling class.

But on the bright side, all power to the SNP. They are not left enough for my liking but I find Salmond to be the most agreeable politician to have led any government in the UK since the war, and for all their reformism and petit-bourgeouisness, the Scottish Government is among the most progressive in Europe.

So why did not the Scottish people vote for SNP in massive numbers to gain independence away from the wicked English in the 70's and 80's?
They could have done but they did not, and as they chose to stay in the Union so the wealth from oil was used for all parts of the UK, and obviously with Scotland being small in population they would not have got the largest cut of the cake. Just the same as say a rural area such as Norfolk or Cumbria would have got a small share. The UK is a political unified nation, and the Scottish people did not vote SNP for independence when the oil was in full flow, so Scotland was treated as just another part of the UK, and rightly so.

I have heard plenty of stories of anti English racism in Scotland. A guy I know who lived in Scotland for a while, left after his kids were bullied at school for being English, and anti English slogans were sprayed on his front gate. There has been plenty of incidents of this.
I am not saying all Scottish people are racist, but their is a nasty anti English set of feelings in Scotland.

 

[Darios]

There is loads of money in fact. During 2008 the Treasury earned just under £10bn in revenue from the North Sea oil and gas, and there are still a few decades left.

A few decades left!? At current production levels?

 

[lewislewis]

So why did not the Scottish people vote for SNP in massive numbers to gain independence away from the wicked English in the 70's and 80's?
They could have done but they did not, and as they chose to stay in the Union so the wealth from oil was used for all parts of the UK, and obviously with Scotland being small in population they would not have got the largest cut of the cake. Just the same as say a rural area such as Norfolk or Cumbria would have got a small share. The UK is a political unified nation, and the Scottish people did not vote SNP for independence when the oil was in full flow, so Scotland was treated as just another part of the UK, and rightly so.

I have heard plenty of stories of anti English racism in Scotland. A guy I know who lived in Scotland for a while, left after his kids were bullied at school for being English, and anti English slogans were sprayed on his front gate. There has been plenty of incidents of this.
I am not saying all Scottish people are racist, but their is a nasty anti English set of feelings in Scotland.

It's not up to me how the Scottish people vote, they did not back the SNP in the same numbers back then that they do now. Although, surely you've seen the declassified Govt document that says if the truth about the oil had gotten out then support for independence would have skyrocketed (google it).

Your points about Scotland being a small area are true. I mean, look how well they've done through being a small part of the great UK....

Now as far as I remember there wasn't a referendum on independence back then. There is a chance for one now. Let them choose and respect their choice without being spiteful about it.

I'm sorry for the guy you knew who suffered racist abuse. It is not acceptable. There will always be a layer of disenchantment in the subjugated nation when people from the colonial neighbour come in. The only solution is freedom for the colony, and mutual respect I believe will be generated by Scotland and England being nations together on an equal footing. I think we are seeing the tide of history in Scotland and there won't be enough of those anecdotes to stop it.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

The licenses and revenues cost hundreds of millions of pounds. The oil was private under Thatcher too and still earned billions for the Treasury.

There is loads of money in fact. During 2008 the Treasury earned just under £10bn in revenue from the North Sea oil and gas, and there are still a few decades left.

Scotland 'needs' to find £8.5bn a year to keep current levels of public expenditure going. Now, an independent Scotland wouldn't need to pay its share towards nuclear weapons or a number of other types of expenditure, plus they'd still have had £1.5bn left to play with in 2008. I believe the SNP's policy is to invest that bit into an Oil Futures Fund like Norway has, for when the oil and gas runs out (and for when the oil price changes!).

Mr FLB:

Thing is, Oil and gas is depleting, 2008 figures correspond to the highest ever recorded oil revenues. All the gas piplines point to the UK, so if they want to export, say gas to Europe then they will have to pay the English pipeline capacity, because the interconector joins Bacton in Essex(?) to Zubrugge in Belgium.... unless of course they want to invest in their own pipeline? Which will cost more that £1billion.

The Langeled Pipeliene cost £1.7bn, and presumably it would all have to come from private investment as the gvt won't touch it. Doesn't bode well for declining oil & gas reserves.

Also, Scotland can keep their gas! England and Wales have LNG import facilites whereby thy can bring in cheape foreign imports.

 

[Azrael]

There will always be a layer of disenchantment in the subjugated nation when people from the colonial neighbour come in. The only solution is freedom for the colony, and mutual respect I believe will be generated by Scotland and England being nations together on an equal footing.

Uniting Scotland and England in a federal system, with equal representation on foreign matters, would be putting them on an equal footing, would it not? (Actually an unequal footing, since Scotland's population is much smaller than England's, but I'm not big on PR.)

 

[lewislewis]

A few decades left!? At current production levels?

25 billion barrels (they discovered a new field as recently as 2002 so there could be more).

http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Budget-boost-for-Scottish-oil.5183909.jp

 

[lewislewis]

Uniting Scotland and England in a federal system, with equal representation on foreign matters, would be putting them on an equal footing, would it not? (Actually an unequal footing, since Scotland's population is much smaller than England's, but I'm not big on PR.)

It would go some way to putting the current member nations of the UK on an equal footing. I am not minded to think it is fairer than independence, because of the imperial/foreign policy implications and the importance of an independent Wales or Scotland having an independent foreign policy. I can see a post-UK England still wanting to be aligned closely with US imperialism, whereas I can see Wales and Scotland being more neutral. In a federal system that's usually one of the areas people talk about reserving in London or Westminster.

I do think a genuine federal system with law-making powers for each nation would go some way to addressing the current situation, but I think it is less likely to happen than independence and not as ideal as independence. The UK officially becoming a 'Union of Nations' rather than a United Nation is probably the only way to save the union.

 

[Darios]

25 billion barrels (they discovered a new field as recently as 2002 so there could be more).

http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Budget-boost-for-Scottish-oil.5183909.jp

Mate that article is serious bad news - the government is stepping in to subsidise sucking out the last drips because the private sector won't. 25 billion barrels doesn't mean 25 billion recoverable barrels.

 

[sonny61]

I'm sorry for the guy you knew who suffered racist abuse. It is not acceptable. There will always be a layer of disenchantment in the subjugated nation when people from the colonial neighbour come in.

He was a van driver for fuck sake, not an English landowner taking Scottish land.
Colonial neighbour my arse, the Scottish have had plenty of time over the years to have independence.
I am sick of Scottish victimhood, please let Scotland go for independence.

 

[Azrael]

The UK officially becoming a 'Union of Nations' rather than a United Nation is probably the only way to save the union.

What about Scottish and Welsh membership of the EU?

By the by, should the USA, undoubtedly a vast land-empire whatever its national mythology says, be dismembered on grounds of imperialism? Given that the Scottish parliament consented to Union (after Scotland's demented exploits in the Isthmus of Panama as part of the Darien scheme), our Union has rather more claim to be free of imperialism than that of the folks across the pond. (The incorporation of Wales and Ireland were nakedly imperial enterprises, before anyone says it.)

 

[lewislewis]

Mate that article is serious bad news - the government is stepping in to subsidise sucking out the last drips because the private sector won't. 25 billion barrels doesn't mean 25 billion recoverable barrels.

It's dependent on the price of oil. This article makes sobering reading and is fairly balanced:
http://www.offshore-technology.com/features/feature1521/

See the last para. The more I think about this discussion, the more I am seeing that the SNP is actually looking way beyond oil and at renewable energy, which is the next energy revolution. Remember, Scotland (to my envy) is ahead of anywhere else in Europe in terms of the plans it has in place for renewable energy. Particularly offshore wind.

 

[lewislewis]

He was a van driver for fuck sake, not an English landowner taking Scottish land.
Colonial neighbour my arse, the Scottish have had plenty of time over the years to have independence.
I am sick of Scottish victimhood, please let Scotland go for independence.

Well, they've got my permission. I told Alex to go for it. They're going to legislate for an independence referendum in the Scottish Parliament. Do you think the Tories, Labour and Libs will block the bill or let it go through? Could be interesting.

 

[lewislewis]

What about Scottish and Welsh membership of the EU?

By the by, should the USA, undoubtedly a vast land-empire whatever its national mythology says, be dismembered on grounds of imperialism? Given that the Scottish parliament consented to Union (after Scotland's demented exploits in the Isthmus of Panama as part of the Darien scheme), our Union has rather more claim to be free of imperialism than that of the folks across the pond. (The incorporation of Wales and Ireland were nakedly imperial enterprises, before anyone says it.)

I don't think there are any moves for any parts of the UK to withdraw from the EU at present. An independent Wales would probably need to stay in the EU. It would depend what the people want, but you'd probably find me arguing for EU membership to continue (although campaigning for an alternative Europe).

I don't know about the USA apart from the indigenous experience, it's all about self-determination. When a group of people say they are a nation and would like a referendum on self-determination, whether its a developed nation with a capitalist class like Scotland, Catalonia or wherever, or a group of indigenous Americans, they should have that right.

Incidentally, Greenland (population 60,000) is also advancing towards independence. It already has autonomy and recently elected a far-left government run by protest singers.

I have thoroughly enjoyed this discussion but will now say goodnight!

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

25 billion barrels

It sounds alot, but really isn't!

All UK offshore production in 2007 was 514,936,275 barrels how much of this was soley Scottish (not just North Sea)


https://www.og.berr.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/appendices/Appendix9.htm

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Mate that article is serious bad news - the government is stepping in to subsidise sucking out the last drips because the private sector won't. 25 billion barrels doesn't mean 25 billion recoverable barrels.

MrFLB:

It's a bit like saying "the whole of Pluto is made of gold! (well, maybe not quite like that but you get the point)

 

[Azrael]

I have thoroughly enjoyed this discussion but will now say goodnight!

Night.

 

[david dissadent]

After the further advances of the SNP in the Euro election, is it now not time for a referendum for a straight yes or no for independence for Scotland?
If, as now seems likely Cameron wins the GE, I presume the SNP will be the winners from the Labour defeat, possibly gaining more than half the seats in Scotland.

I believe the leader of the SNP says this will entitle them to a referendum for independence. That will put Cameron in a pickle, as he heads an Unionist party, and won't want to be known as the PM on who's watch Scotland broke away.
I think Cameron could not hold out against a referendum, as I believe the SNP says it will take part in civil disobedience and bring Scotland to a halt if denied a referendum.

I hope Scotland votes for independence, then we can see them stop blaming everything on the 'English' Parliament.
I am bored with hearing how rough Scotland has had it of England.
Please Scotland just go, and then all the money which the rest of the British taxpayer has to pay for the upkeep of Scotland, can be used for the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

You have forgotten one tiny little detail.


The trade balance. Oil is priced and traded in dollars. Currently most of the UKs oil and gas consumption is paid for iin dollars that goes to UK companies, the UK treasury and UK workers.

If that dynamic changes and 60-80% of the now English pounds have to buy dollars to buy Scottish oil and gas, the UKs already woefull trade balance will rapidly deteriorate. The pound will continue to weaken significantly and most likely a flight of capital will take place as investors seek to swap pounds for Euros, Dollars, Yen and other safe currencies before thier pound denominated assets devalue further.

Scotland on the other hand will experiance a strong inflow of foriegn currency that the Scots will have to descide if it is better to have their own currency or live in the safety of the Euro.

Offcourse all that wind and wave will need to be exploited and that will need capital and technical know how. Funnily enough a country that has both of them and a keen desire to develop all renewables possible is just across the water in Germany. Scottish wind, wave and tide via HVDC to Gernmany in return for a steady long term income.

Scotland is also self sufficient in food.

 

[david dissadent]

25 billion barrels (they discovered a new field as recently as 2002 so there could be more).

http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Budget-boost-for-Scottish-oil.5183909.jp

The North Sea is an extreamly mature province, it has been very heavily explored and discoveries peaked way back in the 70s. It has been a province with a remarkable recovery rate (about 60% or more of oil in place is expected to be produced). However it is now in terminal decline and unlikely any really significant new fields like Brent or Forties will be discovered out their. Once the well pressure drops and secondary and tertiary recovary technologies are using a high percentage of the recovered energy to maintain flow rates the fields are pretty much dead. The cost of maintaining an offshore platform means the flow rate has to be such that the amount of oil recovered covers the cost of the platform, unlike onshore stripper wells that can run for decades and even over a centuary with very low flow rates (Colonel Drakes first well still produces about a barrel a day in Pennsylvania).

Governments can promise and make budgets and set targets.... geology remains unimpressed.

 

[sonny61]

You have forgotten one tiny little detail.


The trade balance. Oil is priced and traded in dollars. Currently most of the UKs oil and gas consumption is paid for iin dollars that goes to UK companies, the UK treasury and UK workers.

If that dynamic changes and 60-80% of the now English pounds have to buy dollars to buy Scottish oil and gas, the UKs already woefull trade balance will rapidly deteriorate. The pound will continue to weaken significantly and most likely a flight of capital will take place as investors seek to swap pounds for Euros, Dollars, Yen and other safe currencies before thier pound denominated assets devalue further.

Scotland on the other hand will experiance a strong inflow of foriegn currency that the Scots will have to descide if it is better to have their own currency or live in the safety of the Euro.

Offcourse all that wind and wave will need to be exploited and that will need capital and technical know how. Funnily enough a country that has both of them and a keen desire to develop all renewables possible is just across the water in Germany. Scottish wind, wave and tide via HVDC to Gernmany in return for a steady long term income.

Scotland is also self sufficient in food.

Who says we have to import Scottish oil and gas from a new independent Scotland? Anyway, are not a lot of the industrial sites which refine the oil south of the border?
Plus did not British money bail out the banks in Scotland?

Anyway, I say the Scottish people should go for the paradise of independence you have described.
Please Scotland hurry up and go, cast of your chains from the evil English oppressor.
Paradise awaits an independent Scotland.

 

[david dissadent]

Who says we have to import Scottish oil and gas from a new independent Scotland?

Who cares who you buy it from, oil is a highly fungible commodity. Work it out for yourself.

 

[lewislewis]

The North Sea is an extreamly mature province, it has been very heavily explored and discoveries peaked way back in the 70s. It has been a province with a remarkable recovery rate (about 60% or more of oil in place is expected to be produced). However it is now in terminal decline and unlikely any really significant new fields like Brent or Forties will be discovered out their. Once the well pressure drops and secondary and tertiary recovary technologies are using a high percentage of the recovered energy to maintain flow rates the fields are pretty much dead. The cost of maintaining an offshore platform means the flow rate has to be such that the amount of oil recovered covers the cost of the platform, unlike onshore stripper wells that can run for decades and even over a centuary with very low flow rates (Colonel Drakes first well still produces about a barrel a day in Pennsylvania).

Governments can promise and make budgets and set targets.... geology remains unimpressed.

I bow to your knowledge of the oil industry! Very good points. I'm sure as a former oil economist for RBS Alex Salmond is aware of that. It's becoming clearer now why he is putting such emphasis on renewable energy.

Think we're all missing the point- SNP basing Scottish independence on post-oil. The next slogan will be 'it's Scotlands wind' and 'they're Scotland's tides'.

The most important thing is that Scotland gets to have a referendum on independence. They must have the right to decide. They can then vote for independence or vote to stay with the Union. A 'no' vote will probably bury Scottish independence for a generation and be the end of all this 'end of Britain' malarky. Let's see what happens in a free and fair vote.
It would be immoral to obstruct such a referendum from going ahead.

 

[geminisnake]

He was a van driver for fuck sake, not an English landowner taking Scottish land.
Colonial neighbour my arse, the Scottish have had plenty of time over the years to have independence.

Guess what kids get bullied at school(for absolutely anything, the wrong accent, the wrong colour of hair/skin, etc) and sometimes you get bigotted arseholes anywhere including England.
I got shit at school in England for being scottish. I didn't go bleating about it.

 

[dennisr]

I got shit at school in England for being scottish. I didn't go bleating about it.

What no response like - like blue warpaint and big sword swinging over your head?

That would have shut the bullies up

 

[skyscraper101]

If Scotland get independence - any chance we can have our Nukes back?

 

[19sixtysix]

If Scotland get independence - any chance we can have our Nukes back?

Certainly. Express delivery 5 4 3 2 ......

 

[dennisr]

Certainly. Express delivery 5 4 3 2 ......