My pre-emptive analysis of why England have fucked it up, and why that doesn't mean that they're just a shit team:
1. Sri Lanka are a good team.
Going into the series, I think there was a feeling that Sri Lanka were a rather feeble team with only Murali being genuinely world class, and no match for one of the best Test sides in the world. This is clearly not the case: they have a fantastic attitude and great batting all the way down the order. Last year England walked all over Bangladesh and I think that’s what was on the script this year, but had failed to take into account that Sri Lanka are actually a proper Test-playing nation.
2. Muttiah Muralitharan
Fuck me, he’s an evil bowler. Because of his action I don’t think he’ll ever achieve the reverence that Warne gets, but he takes wickets with the same ruthlessness. Without him Sri Lanka would be in all sorts of trouble.
3. England
They’re not the side they were last year, literally. Despite having found some great new talent England still lack 3 players who you’d definitely want to have on the field: Vaughan, Harmison, and Simon Jones. I’m agnostic on whether Giles would be better than Monty, but it would be good to have some decent batting in the lower orders. Even one of their second-choice bowlers, James Anderson, is unavailable. The new players, for all their talent, are young and inexperienced, as is the Captain.
4. Freddie and the Mind Game
I don’t want to come down too hard on Flintoff. It’s easy to point the finger, and I certainly don’t know enough to be able to decide whether he’s been any good. But what does seem to be the case is that Sri Lanka have won the mental battle in practically every session since halfway through the Lord’s Test. It’s hard to imagine Vaughan letting the team drift like they did for two days at Lord’s or let Sri Lanka claw their way back into every match after such good starts for England. Over the winter England have lost the winning habit. Compare that to Sri Lanka who have fought all the way. Being Captain also seems to have affected his playing. In India it didn't seem to hamper him at all, but his batting's really suffered and his bowling, while still effective, doesn't have quite the all-conquering might that it did last year.
I don't think this is the end of the world for England. With a full-strength squad and Vaughan back in the Captain's chair we should have a great contest with Pakistan this summer.