Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by Pickman's model, Jun 9, 2017.
I think we are still waiting for the moment...I hope it comes.
The subtly of Boris's leadership is a wonder to behold. I'm expecting him to at some point turn up with a 'vote for me' teeshirt.
At times ol' Stealthy Johnson certainly gives me cause to recall the Venezuelan coup-plotters who decided to gloat about how they did it on their tv station, only to find their boasts contributing to the whole thing unravelling before their eyes.
It really is rather comical.
The gossip doing the rounds is that Boris wants to get fired - he can't really resign because that would shoot his leadership bid, but if he gets fired he can be the Brexit Champion and give May the good news from the back benches.
What's also doing the rounds is that the other reason Boris wants to get fired is that as foreign secretary he is pretty much confined to his ministerial salary, whereas as a back bencher, consultant to dodgy Russians and writer of self justifying newspaper articles he was on about £400,000 - of course to the lesser orders £150k is a lot of cash, but when you've built a lifestyle (and CSA payments) on £400k, it's more that a little inhibiting.
His friends in the party are deserting him like he's on fire, hence his evermore desperate shenanigans....
: oh dear how sad: smiley thing
(from the death spiral thread - but prob more relevant here)
Seems to be lots of manoeuvring to replace May. Bad result in local elections could seal her fate.
Not sure how useful the betting odds are - The MPs choose the final two who go to the membership vote I cant see Johnson making the final cut - or Rees Mogg for that matter.
Last time they coalesced around a "safety first" candidate rather then letting the members vote for Leadsom.
They may do that again - i.e. another "unity" candidate who will in exactly the same bind as May - Rudd? Hunt? Seems to be a lot of ire directed towards this williamson bloke. Will it go to the membership? If so they will pick the most brexity candidate
Rudd becoming leader before the next election and then losing her 400 majority seat would be the funniest outcome surely?
It would, but if they did select her (would they, with such a slim majority?) then surely they'd promise voters in her constituency 0% tax, free houses and better toilet paper than the Queen in order to keep her in her seat?
Or they could just move her to a safer seat at the next election.
This might be right, but I think we need to add into the equation the difficulty for the parliamentary Tory party if they don't allow their membership a nutcase in the final vote. It will make them Enemies of the People. I've long thought that what they will do when the day comes is put up a Brexiteer who is willing to betray the cause.
Maybe. Just on the grounds of size, though, that image should be reported to the Obscene Publications squad.
I did think David Davis. He's spent time in Brussels talking to people cleverer than him. He'll have gone native by now. But perhaps even Tories realise by now that he's a little bit too shit. OTOH probably anyone at all who has Brexiteer credentials and is able to cut a deal with the other side has got number 10 on a plate.
I prefer to look at her through a Gnostic Manichaean lens - she if of the fucking darkside Guvnor, non o this Metro-Waftism please, burn her (Gove looks like OK kindling, Boris a decent roast, not all bad then...)
Paint me blue, sharpen my War Nipples
I feel a ruckus a brewin
I am not, despite appearances, a political mastermind, so I wasn't sure if that would be so blatant as to be damaging.
Though I guess after shoving £1bn in the direction of the DUP they don't really have those concerns any more.
If May was the best 'unity' candidate they could scrape up last time round, I doubt there's many better options available now. There's nobody left with a defensible record as minister for something important who has even a modicum of charisma, brains or political talent.
Rudd is just May Jr, and as we saw from last year's debates she's a liability in front of the public. Hunt is the most widely loathed person in the government. The remainer wing of the tory party must know full well they don't have a candidate, and that a leadership election will go badly for them and for the whole party in the long run. That's why May survived last year's catastrophe and why she'll probably survive the next three or four major catastrophes.
McVey will give Hunt a run for his money, parachuted into a safe tory seat after being unceremoniously booted out of Wirral - and given keys to the DWP all in one go!
Its pretty nailed she will face a confidence vote. They are close to the 48 letters they need to trigger a contest . I think they will then ditch her rather than have another year of drift and dither (they can only have on confidence vote per year).
I suppose recent history would support the view that they are that stupid, but I think enough of them realise that May's sole usefulness now is to carry the can for Brexit - either for the end result, or for calling it off. They want to be the person who sashays in afterwards to pick up the pieces, who claims they would have done it all differently but for that woman who everyone hates and certainly they don't want to be the one seen as the laughing stock of Europe and left with six months at most to "fix" things.
I'd also have thought that electoral data from the weekend (the one that claimed the youth vote wasn't that much different but that the 20-39 cohort really did go for Corbyn, and showed Labour's increased support from everyone below the age of 70) would probably have killed off any remaining hopes they'd have of winning an election anytime soon.
The polls are still pretty much neck and neck. And I think the latest analysis of the distribution of the vote still gave the advantage to the Tories.
I did like the bit at the start of that data asking how is it that the youthquake became an accepted truth when the data shows otherwise? The answer basically being 'we're all good at jumping on answers'
They are, but those questions were asked with May in charge, before Brexit has taken place (or article 50 has been rescinded) and without an election likely.
I don't think she's going anywhere. That ship has sailed; they would have gotten rid of her by now. With no other candidate she will limp along (as she does anyway, she walks like a skeletal marionette) until 2022
as soon as the 1922 committe has received 48 letters from mps requesting she go then they have to have a confidence vote. Apparently the number of letters they have received is very close to triggering it. ergo - a confidence vote is highly likely in the very near future. There is a lot of anti-may aggro breaking out accross the tory party.
You can only have 1 of these votes per year.
So, come the (probably inevitable) vote, tory mps will have to decide weather they want another year of drift, inertia and open cabinet warfare or weather to roll the dice again and see if they can get someone in who might be able to control the government.
I think that enough mps will have had enough to vote against her - from the brexit lot aghast at the prospect of BINO to non-affliliated backbenchers who want the government to actually do something about the NHS, housing etc.
She doesn't even have to lose the confidence vote to go - the men in suits may give her the heave ho if she achieves anything less than a big victory over the dissenters.
Its also notable how few voices are being raised in her defence - nobody is slagging off may's critics as far as i can see.
When it comes to the Tories I hope for the best (May falling down a hole to her death) but expect the worst (May slipping on a banana skin)
I do wonder just how she gets out of bed in the morning. Her MPs and ministers mostly hate her, Brexit is going to shit as is the rest of whatever the fuck she's trying to achieve. Seems Merkel just laughed in her face in Davos the other day. When she goes over to Brussels you can see just how hated she is. Personally I'd tell them all to fucking do one, plant the nut on Merkel and just leave the room.
Anyone got any idea how/why she carries on?
I said up thread a week or so ago, I dont think the powers that be are going to let her go,she fucked it and must now carry the poisoned chalice that is brexit and through some weird loyalty she listens to them
LOTS OF BIG POUNDS!
Husband's a city wallah, she'd get a pension, they've no kids, they've got more than enough dough to see them living comfortably, she's just barmy.
Separate names with a comma.