AveryDave
Well-Known Member
How's the forecast looking ahead of this week's games Ben Clasper ?
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The survival run in
- Thread starter lwrs79
- Start date
Ben Clasper
Active Member
Everyone still following the original forecast but our safety gap looking healthier...
Our less cautious model (which is based on actual individual match predictions rather than probabilities) thinks we could be 9 points clear and even catch Welling, Dover and Slough but I'll stick to the cautious model.
Pink Panther
Well-Known Member
There must be a good chance Hungerford will drop tomorrow. They lost at Concord last Thursday, then got hammered at Chelmsford on Saturday, so it's a third away trip inside a week for them.
A win for Chelmsford at Cheshunt will put them level on points and games played with Oxford in the chase for a home semi-final in the play-offs, so I'm sure they'll be well motivated for that.
I guess a pair of defeats for Concord gives us greater margin for error, given how many games they have in hand, although it's hard to see them suddenly turning their form around sufficiently to catch us.
The Cheshunt v Worthing game, postponed on Easter Monday, has been rescheduled for next Tuesday. Worthing also have the Sussex Cup semi-final the following night. I'm not sure why the Cheshunt game couldn't be played on the Monday but it sounds like they're going to prioritise that in their chase for the play-offs and field a shadow side in the county cup.
Don't Slow Down
Well-Known Member
In the bigger scheme of things, that will do....
Don't Slow Down
Well-Known Member
Chelmsford keeper just saved a penalty, stays 1-1
Don't Slow Down
Well-Known Member
Straight down the other end and 2-1 Chelmsford!
MIND THE GAP!
Pink Panther
Well-Known Member
Tonight's final scores:
Cheshunt 1-2 Chelmsford
Concord 1-0 Dover
Taunton 0-3 Hungerford
The good news is that we're still 6 points clear of danger and 4 more points from the final 3 games will guarantee our safety. Cheshunt have spent their game in hand, while we now have a game in hand on Dover and we're only 2 points behind them. It's not ideal that Concord and Hungerford keep their hopes alive before we meet them in our next two games but we can't really complain after the number of results that fell in our favour on Saturday. Taunton only had two outfield players plus a keeper on the bench this evening. I'm not sure why they seem to have such a small squad when they knew they had a fixture backlog well before the transfer deadline. I assumed they must have loads of injuries but the squad page on their website only features 17 players and there's no sign of any reserve or youth team that could supply players to make up the numbers on the bench. They were 2-0 down inside 5 minutes.
There were some big results in the divisions above and below concerning who will be in National South next season. Yeovil join Maidstone (and Scunthorpe, who will go into National North) in being relegated, after predictably losing at Wrexham. Torquay are 3 points adrift of York and Maidenhead in the final relegation spot with a significantly worse goal difference after losing 5-1 at Chesterfield. They lost 5-1 at Chesterfield tonight and their final game is at home to Wrexham.
Bishop's Stortford are confirmed as Isthmian League champions after Canvey Island could only draw 2-2 at home to Aveley, despite scoring twice in stoppage time. Weston-super-Mare are Southern Premier South champions after a 4-1 win at home to Hendon.
Cheshunt 1-2 Chelmsford
Concord 1-0 Dover
Taunton 0-3 Hungerford
The good news is that we're still 6 points clear of danger and 4 more points from the final 3 games will guarantee our safety. Cheshunt have spent their game in hand, while we now have a game in hand on Dover and we're only 2 points behind them. It's not ideal that Concord and Hungerford keep their hopes alive before we meet them in our next two games but we can't really complain after the number of results that fell in our favour on Saturday. Taunton only had two outfield players plus a keeper on the bench this evening. I'm not sure why they seem to have such a small squad when they knew they had a fixture backlog well before the transfer deadline. I assumed they must have loads of injuries but the squad page on their website only features 17 players and there's no sign of any reserve or youth team that could supply players to make up the numbers on the bench. They were 2-0 down inside 5 minutes.
There were some big results in the divisions above and below concerning who will be in National South next season. Yeovil join Maidstone (and Scunthorpe, who will go into National North) in being relegated, after predictably losing at Wrexham. Torquay are 3 points adrift of York and Maidenhead in the final relegation spot with a significantly worse goal difference after losing 5-1 at Chesterfield. They lost 5-1 at Chesterfield tonight and their final game is at home to Wrexham.
Bishop's Stortford are confirmed as Isthmian League champions after Canvey Island could only draw 2-2 at home to Aveley, despite scoring twice in stoppage time. Weston-super-Mare are Southern Premier South champions after a 4-1 win at home to Hendon.
Al Cunningham
Brockley Hamlet
Could be more than 2 Southern clubs getting relegated from the National League. Could that mean Oxford , Hemel or St Albans moving to the North ?
tonysingh
Con Te Partiró
Sir Nikolai
Well-Known Member
If we win on Saturday then hungerford and Weymouth are relegated and cheshunt would have to win to avoid relegation. If concord lose to Dartford on Thursday, they would also need to beat hampton if we win.
If we draw with hungerford on Saturday, Weymouth fail to beat Slough, cheshunt lose on saturday and concord lose their next two we are also safe.
If we lose to hungerford but beat concord, cheshunt would need to win their next two and concord would need to have beaten both Dartford and Hampton to take it to the final day. A win at any time or 3 draws for us relegates Weymouth and hungerford.
If we draw with hungerford on Saturday, Weymouth fail to beat Slough, cheshunt lose on saturday and concord lose their next two we are also safe.
If we lose to hungerford but beat concord, cheshunt would need to win their next two and concord would need to have beaten both Dartford and Hampton to take it to the final day. A win at any time or 3 draws for us relegates Weymouth and hungerford.
Sir Nikolai
Well-Known Member
Don't think 4 points mathematically is enough to guarantee safety. Concord can get 52 and Dover 54. Still technically 7 I think but a win against concord pretty much means concord and cheshunt would have to win all their remaining games for it to go to the last day.
Sir Nikolai
Well-Known Member
Actually technically hungerford and Weymouth could catch Dover but not us if we win one more game.
Pink Panther
Well-Known Member
I reckon Oxford will be moved if they don't win the play offs. They were in the North for 3 seasons or so just before we were promoted. Bishop's Stortford also had 2 seasons in the North under great duress. (I think the league agreed to subsidised their travel costs.) Braintree is another possibility to get shifted. I reckon they'll try to avoid splitting St Albans and Hemel due to their close proximity to each other. They tend to base these decisions more on proximity to motorway routes and other clubs rather than a simple north/south dividing line.
As long as we're still in our league of course! They only lost two games all season last time they were in our division and one of those was 4-1 at Champion Hill, thanks to a Joe Odegbami masterclass. I think the first time I met you was at the away game, which we lost 6-1 on a Tuesday evening towards the end of the season.
Sorry, you're right. I overlooked Concord's games in hand and was only focused on the teams closest behind. Hopefully Concord lose to Dartford on Thursday to bring our target down.
Sir Nikolai
Well-Known Member
Our home game vs concord is the crucial one. Even if we lose to hungerford, beating concord would mean hungerford and Weymouth couldn't catch us, concord could only equal our points tally and have a worst goal difference and cheshunt would have to win all their remaining games and hope we couldn't nick a point Vs Chippenham.
Of course there are scenarios where it could all be over this weekend as well and - dare I say it - where it could go down to the last game too.
Of course there are scenarios where it could all be over this weekend as well and - dare I say it - where it could go down to the last game too.
Moroccan Sunset
Well-Known Member
That's one helluva result. Hopefully their run of games will have taken its toll by next Tuesday.
I think this is going to the wire!
I think this is going to the wire!
Pink Panther
Well-Known Member
We didn't need that, although Dartford seem to have been fairly dodgy of late except when we played them. I looked at the Dartford twitter and there are Slough fans on there moaning at them for not digging them out of their relegation scrap. (They'd have been safe if Dartford had won.) You can't blame other teams for losing when you're down there. I hope Slough go down now!
AveryDave
Well-Known Member
Apart from our late equaliser only Slough and Dover's losses went our way today.
Very simply, win on Tuesday and we stay up. Concord's third win in five days suggests they're not running out of steam just yet, though.
The other midweek games featuring the teams around us before the final weekend are as follows - if we don't get the win against Concord we could end up finishing 23rd.
Tues 25th April:
Cheshunt v Worthing - if Cheshunt lose they're down, regardless of our result
Taunton v Weymouth - if Weymouth don't win they're down, again regardless of our result
Thurs 27th April:
Concord v Havant & Waterlooville - this is huge if Concord take anything off of us
Very simply, win on Tuesday and we stay up. Concord's third win in five days suggests they're not running out of steam just yet, though.
The other midweek games featuring the teams around us before the final weekend are as follows - if we don't get the win against Concord we could end up finishing 23rd.
Tues 25th April:
Cheshunt v Worthing - if Cheshunt lose they're down, regardless of our result
Taunton v Weymouth - if Weymouth don't win they're down, again regardless of our result
Thurs 27th April:
Concord v Havant & Waterlooville - this is huge if Concord take anything off of us
Pink Panther
Well-Known Member
Concord have have had 4 home wins in the last 10 days (against Hungerford, Dover, Dartford, Hampton) as well as a 4-0 defeat at Bath last Saturday. They've had so few away games in that sequence it's hard to say whether they can bring that form to Champion Hill, where we've been much more effective ourselves compared to the fragile away form seen once again today.
I'm reliably informed Grainger (knee) and Holland (ribs) are out for the season, although Jones did everything asked of him today. We're also worryingly short of attacking options for next Saturday, with Porter and Crichlow suspended plus Fawole possibly still out injured.
Let's get this done on Tuesday.
Pink Panther
Well-Known Member
We've done pretty well with midweek home games this season, I can only recall dropping points to Ebbsfleet (who are different class) and a rather lucky Worthing, who played nice football but would have lost that game 7 times out of 10 and drawn the other 2. We need to dictate the game and set the agenda, which we've done very well in Hakan's 5 home games so far.
Pink Panther
Well-Known Member
The picture is much clearer for the final day now. One point will be enough after Concord were relegated tonight. Concord led 3-2 before Havant equalised after 83 minutes, then had a free kick saved in the final minute of stoppage time before Havant broke down the other end to snatch the winner. I couldn't bear to check for updates until 10pm, by which time it was safe to assume the game would have finished. Havant match report:
www.havantandwaterloovillefc.co.uk
Hamlet will be relegated on goal difference if we lose and Weymouth win
Dover will be relegated on goal difference if they lose and Hamlet don't lose
Weymouth will be relegated unless they win.
Concord Rangers vs Havant and Waterlooville FC - HWFC
We take a wet Thursday night trip to Concord Rangers who need to win in their bid for survival. The Hawks, also, need max points to keep playoff dream alive. MATCH ACTION It took five minutes but the Hawks got a foothold on the match with a good spell of pressure, it resulted in Danny […]
www.havantandwaterloovillefc.co.uk
Hamlet will be relegated on goal difference if we lose and Weymouth win
Dover will be relegated on goal difference if they lose and Hamlet don't lose
Weymouth will be relegated unless they win.
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Sir Nikolai
Well-Known Member
If Hamlet lose 1-0 to Chippenham and Weymouth beat Dover 4-0 (or any three goal swing) then Dulwich and Weymouth stay up.
Pink Panther
Well-Known Member
I don't even want to contemplate needing someone else to win 4-0 away! (It reminds me of Phil Baker celebrating Northampton's promotion in the clubhouse after our final game this time last year, without realising Bristol Rovers had beaten Scunthorpe 7-0 for a 6 goal swing.)
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