media is focussed on NF votes and the Sarkozy campaign also seems to believe the election will turn on who gets those votes.
i think this is all wrong. for me the only way Sarkozy wins will be if his voters are more motivated to turn up on the day. we know that they are very motivated (many have a lot of their income riding on it, if Hollande is to be believed), and he got a strong showing in the 1st round. most of Hollande's voters have arrived as such by default - they're anti-Sarkozy voters in reality.
if the younger section of the anti-Sarkozy vote don't bother showing up in massive numbers this one could still be close.
i think this is all wrong. for me the only way Sarkozy wins will be if his voters are more motivated to turn up on the day. we know that they are very motivated (many have a lot of their income riding on it, if Hollande is to be believed), and he got a strong showing in the 1st round. most of Hollande's voters have arrived as such by default - they're anti-Sarkozy voters in reality.
if the younger section of the anti-Sarkozy vote don't bother showing up in massive numbers this one could still be close.


