The people which matter in Britain

[gosub]

I think a collapse of the EUro is more likely than the UK government meeting the Maastricht ERM borrowing limits that are a prerequisite for joining the EUro. The relaxation of those limits to allow the UK to join, would certainly impact on the credibility of the EUro.

I will agree though with the underlying message from the those now calling for the adoption of the EU: Those running the UK economy should relinquish control. Though I'd rather they did that within the frame work of the UK constitution (no parliament may bind its successors), there is still no exit mechanism for the EUro: ie Call and lose an election.

 

[elbows]

I dunno, I think the scale of the financial crisis and the response makes changing borrowing rules far more plausible than it would have been before October. I guess I still expect some more dramatic shocks to the financial system and currencies, which will see more rules thrown out of the window.

 

[gosub]

There was an interesting interview on Newsnight on Tuesday (not posted before due to dodgy wifi on boat). Confuses me over VAT cos we are bound by COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2006/112/EC and the EUrozone membership number has gone up 15 not 12. Be interesting to see Brian Lenihan, Jnr's answers to the same questions.

But with French Fiance Minister saying UK would have to meet economic constraints and the German response to Brown's measures realistically should put the matter to bed. Else those advocates (both old and new) should start explaining why the UK interest rate is too low (Eurozone =2.5% UK=2%) and where the UK can make cuts to get borrowing down to Maastrict6 approved levels

 

[nino_savatte]

Exactly, followed by the Eire being the first country in EUrope to enter recession, and the Irish having to put up with economic measures that are a compromise with eleven other countries over what measures they can take to resolve the situation.

Aye, Ireland became more of a toothless Celtic Tiger than one with real teeth.

 

[vonHayek]

The Euro was a stupid idea in my opinion. One interest rate is bad enough for one country, but a base rate for a collection of different economies?! Recipe for disaster! The euro wont last...

 

[ViolentPanda]

The Euro was a stupid idea in my opinion. One interest rate is bad enough for one country, but a base rate for a collection of different economies?! Recipe for disaster! The euro wont last...

Well, I suppose that if you're looking at the Euro from a Hayekian perspective, then you might come to that conclusion.
Of course, if you look at the Euro as a long-term mechanism for stabilisation in Europe, rather than as a means to an instrumental end, your conclusion might differ.

 

[vonHayek]

That doesn't make any sense. You assume the Euro will stabilise the region...well I don't think it does, I think set interest rates are harmful (look at the Fed in america and its role in the current mess!) What on earth is an 'instrumental end' anyway?

 

[ViolentPanda]

That doesn't make any sense. You assume the Euro will stabilise the region...well I don't think it does, I think set interest rates are harmful (look at the Fed in america and its role in the current mess!) What on earth is an 'instrumental end' anyway?

You call yourself "von Hayek", and you don't understand the concept of "instrumentalism"?

Fuck me sideways, a live one!

To deal with your post point by point:

I don't assume anything of the sort, I look to economic history.
If you don't agree, then set forth the reasons why you don't.

Set interest rates are harmful, but so are floating rates. The ECB's set rate allows the internal economic regimes of the Eurozone to fine-tune their economic policies for maximum benefit to the economies, rather than maximum benefit to "the market".

An "instrumental end" can be one that serves it's executor's immediate desires rather than, for example, serving an altruistic or more widely beneficial purpose.
Anathema to market-worshippers, I know.

 

[vonHayek]

Set interest rates are harmful, but so are floating rates. The ECB's set rate allows the internal economic regimes of the Eurozone to fine-tune their economic policies for maximum benefit to the economies, rather than maximum benefit to "the market".

An "instrumental end" can be one that serves it's executor's immediate desires rather than, for example, serving an altruistic or more widely beneficial purpose.
Anathema to market-worshippers, I know.

HAHAHA. Some top notch collectivist new speak.

 

[butchersapron]

Can you give us a link to your great blog hayek?

 

[vonHayek]

I don't have one pedro...to busy with my economics degree and my job in economics consulting. Sorry.

 

[Barking_Mad]

The Euro - What would Jesus do?

Chase out the money lenders?

 

[gosub]

render unto caesar what is caesar's

 

[butchersapron]

Chase out the money lenders?

Changers

 

[vonHayek]

You call yourself "von Hayek", and you don't understand the concept of "instrumentalism"?

Fuck me sideways, a live one!

To deal with your post point by point:

I don't assume anything of the sort, I look to economic history.
If you don't agree, then set forth the reasons why you don't.

Set interest rates are harmful, but so are floating rates. The ECB's set rate allows the internal economic regimes of the Eurozone to fine-tune their economic policies for maximum benefit to the economies, rather than maximum benefit to "the market".

Which part of 'economic history' shows the harmful effect of floating interest rates? We've had set base rates for a long while now.

The economies are the markets - they are not two different things. Markets are made up of individuals, you and me, what is good for the market is good for everyone.

I already set forth why set rates and monetary control are bad because it presumes to know the time preference of the economy which is nonsense, how can anyone know that?

We are seeing the problems of central banking right now. the euro has been stable up till now, but that could easily change and I believe it will.

 

[ViolentPanda]

HAHAHA. Some top notch collectivist new speak.

Ah, I see that you're unable to critique the substantive content.

You must be even more intellectually-enfeebled than I suspected!

 

[Louis MacNeice]

...too busy with my economics degree and my job in economics consulting...

Helping your mate pick his lottery numbers is not a job.

Louis MacNeice

p.s. I've corrected your spelling for free.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Which part of 'economic history' shows the harmful effect of floating interest rates? We've had set base rates for a long while now.

Well, let's take Nixon's resiling from the Bretton Woods agreement and it's consequences as a prime example, shall we?

The economies are the markets - they are not two different things. Markets are made up of individuals, you and me, what is good for the market is good for everyone.

Market-fundamentalist tosh.
A market is a market, it's a component of an economy, not it's be-all and end-all. An economy is the over-arching superstructure in which markets function and contribute to the requirements of the economy.

I already set forth why set rates and monetary control are bad because it presumes to know the time preference of the economy which is nonsense, how can anyone know that?

It doesn't "presume to know", no-one has claimed that it does.

We are seeing the problems of central banking right now. the euro has been stable up till now, but that could easily change and I believe it will.

I'm uninterested in what you believe, I'm interested in what you have at hand to support your contentions.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I don't have one pedro...to busy with my economics degree and my job in economics consulting. Sorry.

Where are you reading Economics?

I ask because I'm a little suspicious of any decent institution that would allow a student to take a high-pressure job on top of their studies. Bar work or prostitution, maybe, but not "economics [sic] consulting".

 

[ViolentPanda]

Helping your mate pick his lottery numbers is not a job.

It's about the only sort of job the current crop of economics grads will find.

 

[butchersapron]

Helping your mate pick his lottery numbers is not a job.

Louis MacNeice

p.s. I've corrected your spelling for free.

That's very unoptimal of you Louis. What are you after?

 

[vonHayek]

There was still the fed in Nixons time so sorry that wasn't anything like a free floating interest rate. You're going to have to go back to pre peel act banking to find examples of that.

And of course central banking presumes to know what the time preference is - that's the whole point!

And I already gave support of my contentions...the current financial crisis and in general the economic cycles are a feature of central banking and fractional reserve banking so there's my evidence.

 

[vonHayek]

Where are you reading Economics?

I ask because I'm a little suspicious of any decent institution that would allow a student to take a high-pressure job on top of their studies. Bar work or prostitution, maybe, but not "economics [sic] consulting".

Trust me..consulting isn't high pressure You give them the products when you're good and ready....

Seriously though, it's very flexible that's why. I don't work 9-5 it can be done anytime really.

 

[butchersapron]

Trust me, i'm an economist.

 

[vonHayek]

Aye. it's all about patronising people with long phrases, some math and a good deal of dramatic looking graphs.

And remember, the predictive powers of economists are 2nd only to Astrologers.

 

[butchersapron]

So, you've decidedto join the flat earth society.

 

[ViolentPanda]

There was still the fed in Nixons time so sorry that wasn't anything like a free floating interest rate.

Hmmm, you didn't specify "free-floating", you merely specified "floating".

You're going to have to go back to pre peel act banking to find examples of that.

No I'm not.

And of course central banking presumes to know what the time preference is - that's the whole point!

But it doesn't, that's the point.
What it does like any financial institution, is make a "best guess" constructed around past trends.
You know, using those models you people are so fond of, the ones that have little concordance with reality?

And I already gave support of my contentions...the current financial crisis and in general the economic cycles are a feature of central banking and fractional reserve banking so there's my evidence.

No, you referred (in passing) to some opinions of yours. That's hardly "support".

 

[ViolentPanda]

Trust me..consulting isn't high pressure You give them the products when you're good and ready....

Ah, you mean you do the modern form of "consulting", then? The type that's only as independent as the depth of your pockets?

Seriously though, it's very flexible that's why. I don't work 9-5 it can be done anytime really.

I'm surprised anyone trusts their financial wellbeing to someone without a degree in economics.
That said, I'm often surprised that people trust their financial wellbeing to someone with an economics degree. It's not as if economists have a better record than any other form of entrail-reader when all is said and done.

 

[ViolentPanda]

So, you've decidedto join the flat earth society.

Don't get too close to the edge....

 

[gosub]

ignoring Ireland, there are other types of stability

From Guardian 9/12/08

With many struggling to make ends meet, and one in five living below the poverty line, there is growing anger at the tough fiscal policies of a government determined to reach the prescriptive benchmarks set out by Brussels and rein in budget deficits. The disaffection has been exacerbated by allegations of corruption and a series of scandals implicating members of Karamanlis's inner circle.