The London elections - your predictions

[ymu]

According to Radio 4, Boris is pretty certain to win. How fucking depressing that we have elected a racist, homophobic adulterer as our mayor. Proof that the majority of Londoners are idiots

I still don't believe it. I predict eggie faces for the press and the bookies tonight.

*smiles confidently but crosses fingers just in case

 

[trashpony]

I still don't believe it. I predict eggie faces for the press and the bookies tonight.

*smiles confidently but crosses fingers just in case

I hope you're right. I haven't felt this depressed since the tories were last elected as government.

 

[g force]

Well at least we'll have a mayor who'll be "a bit of laugh" great basis for voting that...fucking idiots

 

[sally_sally]

I still don't believe it. I predict eggie faces for the press and the bookies tonight.

*smiles confidently but crosses fingers just in case

I agree with you, I think Ken will be re-elected by a very small margin. I just wish I had some spare money as the odds for Ken represent good value.

I think the polls we have seen, especially from the Evening Standard are pretty worthless.

Sal

 

[TopCat]

snap....

... where do you fancy going to spend the winnings....

Richer Sounds for the HDTV and then whoever has the best PS3 deal!

 

[sally_sally]

Just listening the LBC, they are saying the SKY poll is 44% Johnson, 40% Ken, 11% Paddock

 

[ymu]

I can't find any exit poll data online - crashed too early last night to see any reported. The Guardian article has none - just keeps saying that the Tories have claimed victory and some Labour insiders privately agree with them. Where's the data?

The only interesting titbit I got from the election show last night was that turnout was up in the inner city areas in the evening just as it had been in the Boris 'burbs earlier in the day - higher than for a general election in some areas. They were saying the high turnout made it impossible to call - so where's the data allowing people to call it now?

 

[sally_sally]

Richer Sounds for the HDTV and then whoever has the best PS3 deal!

Samsung 40 inch would be nice.

Sal

 

[Prefade]

According to Radio 4, Boris is pretty certain to win. How fucking depressing that we have elected a racist, homophobic adulterer as our mayor. Proof that the majority of Londoners are idiots

It doesn't matter how many times wankers on Urban call him a racist and a homophobe, it still won't make it true, so you don't really do yourself any credibility with those points.

Since when was being an adulterer a disqualification for office? Or are we overlooking Ken's secret family that he spent years lying about.. but then again lying is second nature to scumbag Livingstone. Along with his contempt for the public, his hatred of (ed: deleted) and the massive levels of cronyism that has seen him waste thousands of pounds of public money over the last eight years.

Let's face it, we know which group of supporters are the real idiots here.

I agree that it is actually by no means a racing certainty of a result one way or the other, but if Boris wins I, along with many people I know, will be having a massive fucking great party tonight. Change is in the air and it feels fucking fantastic.

 

[rennie]

Just listening the LBC, they are saying the SKY poll is 44% Johnson, 40% Ken, 11% Paddock

Awful stuff.

 

[Andy the Don]

Fearing the worst, now glad that we are moving to Scotland in the autumn.. I cannot have the city of my birth represented by a rich old etonian tory bigotted wanker.

 

[Oswaldtwistle]

I still don't believe it. I predict eggie faces for the press and the bookies tonight.

*smiles confidently but crosses fingers just in case

The guy behind yougov has said 'either Ken is out of a job or I am'

A shock like this has happened before, back in 1948 - so (in)famous it gets brought up on the blogs even today...... http://math.uprm.edu/wrolke/esma3015/truman.htm Of course history can repeat itself.........

Just listening the LBC, they are saying the SKY poll is 44% Johnson, 40% Ken, 11% Paddock

I want to take issue with that for a start 44+40+11=95% Allowing 1% for UKIP/Leftlist/The CPA do we really think the BNP and the Greens have only polled 2% each?

Anyway 4% lead could narrow on 2nd prefs- which are likely to favour Livingstone (although not overwhelmingly)

Depressingly BNP 2nd preferences could decide this. One factor that could play into Livingstones hands here is the fact that Barnbrook and Batten were next to each other on the ballot paper. Perhaps a lot of BNP supporters will vote UKIP 2nd and vice-versa. Or perhaps they won't- all we can do now is wait.

 

[TopCat]

It doesn't matter how many times wankers on Urban call him a racist and a homophobe, it still won't make it true, so you don't really do yourself any credibility with those points.

Since when was being an adulterer a disqualification for office? Or are we overlooking Ken's secret family that he spent years lying about.. but then again lying is second nature to scumbag Livingstone. Along with his contempt for the public, his hatred of ------- and the massive levels of cronyism that has seen him waste thousands of pounds of public money over the last eight years.

Let's face it, we know which group of supporters are the real idiots here.

I agree that it is actually by no means a racing certainty of a result one way or the other, but if Boris wins I, along with many people I know, will be having a massive fucking great party tonight. Change is in the air and it feels fucking fantastic.

Nice libel in there.

 

[Oswaldtwistle]

(quoting Trashpony)It doesn't matter how many times wankers on Urban call him (Boris)a racist and a homophobe, it still won't make it true, so you don't really do yourself any credibility with those points.

.

OK , first up trashpony isn't a 'wanker'. Secondly I agree he isn't a racist or a homophobe. He is however gaff prone (giving the impression he is racist on at least one occasion) and has been deeply unconvincing in the debates.

I don't think he will be the end of the world for Londoners. He is from the centrist 'one nation' wing of the Conservatives and he may well leave much of the micromangent to his proposed cabinet and his advisors (unlike Ken who was/is pretty hands on)

However I can see why people have their reservations, for sure.

I'm afraid my interest is largely financial. (I stand to make £45 if Ken squeaks back in)

 

[editor]

his hatred of (ed: deleted)

That is defamatory. Do not repeat it.

 

[Andy the Don]

It doesn't matter how many times wankers on Urban call him a racist and a homophobe, it still won't make it true, so you don't really do yourself any credibility with those points.

Do not care about a persons private life as long as it does not effect their professional life. But calling Africans piccannies & having watermelon smiles is very, very rude & verging on racist. Boris also defended the columnist Taki's racist writings when he was editor of the Spectator. Boris's record against gay rights & gay marriage is well known. He voted against the repel of section 28 & against gay rights legislation. On this evidence I would say that Boris is a borderline racist & homophobe & therefore is not fit to lead a tolerant progressive world city like London.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I still don't believe it. I predict eggie faces for the press and the bookies tonight.

*smiles confidently but crosses fingers just in case

I'm clinging to your posts like mad - you're a proper statistician right?

 

[JTG]

when's the result announced? I'll be in London later and want to know when to avoid the rioting when someone gets elected.

will I be able to get the tube after midnight or will Boris have shut it down by then?

 

[STFC]

I have no idea what the predictions of a Johnson win are based on, so I'm not celebrating yet. I still think Livingstone will edge it.

Oh well, even if we do have another four years of that loathsome man as Mayor, at least Labour have taken a massive kicking elsewhere.

 

[trashpony]

Do not care about a persons private life as long as it does not effect their professional life. But calling Africans piccannies & having watermelon smiles is very, very rude & verging on racist. Boris also defended the columnist Taki's racist writings when he was editor of the Spectator. Boris's record against gay rights & gay marriage is well known. He voted against the repel of section 28 & against gay rights legislation. On this evidence I would say that Boris is a borderline racist & homophobe & therefore is not fit to lead a tolerant progressive world city like London.

Indeed. That's why I called him a racist and a homophobe.

Thanks for defending me oswaldtwistle. I don't mind if prefade thinks I'm a wanker, I can think of worse epithets for him tbh!

 

[Oswaldtwistle]

I have no idea what the predictions of a Johnson win are based on

This is basically the line of thought on Politicalbetting.com, other blogs are saying similar.......


The main reason for believing Johnson has won is the fact that turnout in outer London has been high. Very high in the case of Bexley, which has seen higher turnout than at a general.

The Conservatives have had armies of supporters getting the vote out across the outer suburbs- people who perhaps didn't vote last time because they didn't agree with the idea of a mayor, or didn't really see themselves as Londoners.

If the Bexley pattern has been repeated in Chingford, Ickenham, Bromley and the rest then Ken could be getting his P45 in less than twelve hours.


But this is all blogosphere rumours- we will soon know for sure.

 

[Red Faction]

boris has won

 

[KeyboardJockey]

boris has won

Where are you picking up these rumours from. I think if this is true then Livingstone has contributed massively to his own defeat with his unpopular policies and arrogance.

 

[citydreams]

Where are you picking up these rumours from. I think if this is true then Livingstone has contributed massively to his own defeat with his unpopular policies and arrogance.

Maybe he just over-estimated the intelligence of some of his voters

 

[rutabowa]

Where are you picking up these rumours from. I think if this is true then Livingstone has contributed massively to his own defeat with his unpopular policies and arrogance.

Keyboard Jockey, who did you end up voting for, i thought you were goign for Ken in the end or am i mixing you up with someone else?

 

[KeyboardJockey]

Keyboard Jockey, who did you end up voting for, i thought you were goign for Ken in the end or am i mixing you up with someone else?

I voted Boris as first choice, then Paddick then Lib Dem for the Assembly list and constituency. Can't bring myself to vote NL.

 

[TopCat]

boris has won

They have not counted the votes yet!

 

[ymu]

I'm clinging to your posts like mad - you're a proper statistician right?

This Guardian article, dated today, appears to agree with me.

Race to be London's mayor is too close to call

Opinion polls showed Livingstone closing in on Johnson as capital voted
...

"The thing that we were scared of was a low turnout among Labour voters and that hasn't happened from what we have seen," said one of the campaign team.

Labour strategists believe that a higher turnout will benefit Livingstone, and yesterday activists sent out tens of thousands of emails to potential voters.

...

Livingstone's campaign received a late boost when Simon Hughes, the former Liberal Democrat mayoral candidate and party president, gave a strong hint that Lib Dem supporters should use their second-preference votes to back Livingstone, after giving their first preferences to Brian Paddick.

Yesterday's poll, conducted for the London Evening Standard, suggested Livingstone still had a lot of ground to make up if he is to overturn Johnson's lead. However, YouGov has consistently given Johnson greater leads than other polling organisations and many analysts said yesterday that the race was still too close to call. A poll for Ipsos Mori last week put Livingstone 4% ahead and another for MRUK put him 2% in front.

Livingstone by at least 52% I reckon.

 

[rutabowa]

I voted Boris as first choice, then Paddick then Lib Dem for the Assembly list and constituency. Can't bring myself to vote NL.

so why were you bigging up Ken so much beforehand? you convinced me to get out there and vote! why did you change your mind at the last minute?

 

[jæd]

Livingstone by at least 52% I reckon.

Even if he does, he's not going to be a popular Mayor. And him getting in may scupper any chances of a Labour Mayor next time. So if Boris (or worse) is around next time...