The London elections - your predictions
- Thread starter d.a.s.h
- Start date
knatchbull
Active Member
Thinking more about second preferences
Of the eight other candidates for Mayor I reckon the Ken has got the second preference votes of
Siân Berry (Green Party)
Lindsey German (Left List)
and probably most of Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrats)'s supporters?
And Boris has got the second preferences of
Richard Barnbrook (British National Party)
Gerard Batten (UK Independence Party)
Matt O'Connor (English Democrats)
Of the two remaining (who in relaity will probably poll a few thousand votes London-wide but who could be decisive none the less) I would say that supporters of Winston McKenzie (Independent) and Alan Craig (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) will probably be more inclined towards Labour than the Tories and so more likely to support Ken.
knatchbull
Active Member
Further to my earlier post looking closer at the Christian Party's website www.cpaparty.org.uk/ there are various issues that they are against which would indicate that their supporters' 2nds arent necessarily Ken's.
As for Winston Mckenzie www.mckenzie4mayor.co.uk/ his rap "It is my desire to take it to the wire and see Ken retire" might indicate that he doesnt necessarily want his 2nds to go to Ken
As for Winston Mckenzie www.mckenzie4mayor.co.uk/ his rap "It is my desire to take it to the wire and see Ken retire" might indicate that he doesnt necessarily want his 2nds to go to Ken
knatchbull
Active Member
But will they, when faced with the pencil and ballot paper in the booth, be willing to contemplate a Johnson London? I would hope not
TopCat
Putin fanboy
I can't see paddick supporters voting for Boris. I think they will second pref the green and poss ken.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
My predictions:
A last minute Evening Standard push: headlines/newspaper boards reading 'Poll boost for Boris'.
Livingstone gets elected.
The Tories are already voting, or abstaining because Boris is an embarrassment. The Evening Standard and their weird polls can only help get the anti-Boris vote out. Go them!
A last minute Evening Standard push: headlines/newspaper boards reading 'Poll boost for Boris'.
Livingstone gets elected.
The Tories are already voting, or abstaining because Boris is an embarrassment. The Evening Standard and their weird polls can only help get the anti-Boris vote out. Go them!
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Not what the polls say tc. Lib-dems seem to be a solid anti-'ken' vote on first and second.
Sadly I think you're right.
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
So, he's not even started yet and he's already addressing the issue of overcrowding.
Pretty good work I say.
Predictions - BJ to win
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
So, he's not even started yet and he's already addressing the issue of overcrowding.
Pretty good work I say.
Predictions - BJ to win
To be fair his chances of winning are only increased by the whining shite that has been appearing in the Observer and (especially) the Guardian, of which the highlight is this piece today:
Grauniad said:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone
Boris is a cretin, but it is blatantly obvious to anyone that is familiar with him even on one passing appearance or (especially) an acquaintance.
The reason he looks like he will get in is not because he (Boris) has managed to fool Londoners, but rather because Livingstone has royally fucked up this term with the people he has trusted, is about to oversee a colossal waste of our money via the Olympics (though central government holds rather more of the blame for that) and, most of all, because he has - at the worst possible time - realigned himself with an immensely unpopular Labour Party and its disastrous PM.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
KeyboardJockey
Clowns to the Left of me
Its not working that well under Livingscum either. Victoria line especially.
Hopefully we will wake up to find that Livingstone has found that his Livingsgone.
GO BORIS !!!!
citydreams
on the road again
congratulations on picking the worst man for the job
Reno
The In Kraut
The Victoria line is currently being renovated and repaired so it will work properly. There are notices up everywhere saying so. Unfortunately that means you will have to put up with early closures and delays for now. With the Undergound having been neglected for many decades its not something that can be fixed in a couple of weeks time. It's really not that difficult to understand.
Livingstone has radically improved London public transport. I really don't want it to go back to how it was before.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
Also not forgetting that the current PPP arrangement of the tube was fought tooth and nail by livingstone against parliament. He can't be blamed for it.
but but this ticket inspector was rude to me this morning therefore i have to vote for boris cos ken is in charge of the tube isn't it?
ethel
Well-Known Member
how so? yes, the victoria line is closing early, but that's to carry out work that will decrease journey times in future.
the tube was underfunded for years, and so there has to be a lot of work done.
just what is boris offering to do?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
this, unfortunately.
I'm usually so optimistic too
No no non niet nein.
KL will win, corals will pay me £400 profit and the PS3 and GTA4 will be mine!!!
Stobart Stopper
Well-Known Member
I voted Brian first, Ken second and Green Party on all the other ballot papers.
Red Faction
Allez Les Rouges
boris will win
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Indeed, which is why I made the point about Brown - one of Ken's biggest achievements was being demonstrated to be right over PPP (and therefore to be the right man for the job), and yet he cannot use it because it would be used as another stick (if one were needed) with which to bash Brown with (which of course it should be used as, the man is a cretin).
What is of course a worrying offshoot from a Boris victory is this piece from Guido about a scorched-earth strategy from the Government. Having Boris as a mayor would be bad enough without having the Government deliberately cut funds (with the resultant fall in services) in order to ensure he is kicked out.
Brixton Hatter
Home is south London mate
i think Ken will scrape it.
And i think the level of johnson's support has been inflated...not least by the evening (sub) standard and their discredited YouGov polls. It's very close, but in elections you often see a slight swing towards the incumbent at the last minute.
There's a collection of opinion poll results here - not all of them, but a fair few. Interesting that it reports that the latest Yougov poll (for the Evening (sub) Standard, a right wing paper) predicts Boris winning with a 6 point lead. The latest Mori poll (for Unison, a left wing trade union) predicts Ken winning with a 4 point lead. So it looks like there's not much in it, but you've also gotta ask yourself about the accuracy of polls, given that these two polls put the candidates 10 points apart!
It's pretty exciting for an election anyway....most recent elections have been rubbish. Fingers crossed we get Ken.
And i think the level of johnson's support has been inflated...not least by the evening (sub) standard and their discredited YouGov polls. It's very close, but in elections you often see a slight swing towards the incumbent at the last minute.
There's a collection of opinion poll results here - not all of them, but a fair few. Interesting that it reports that the latest Yougov poll (for the Evening (sub) Standard, a right wing paper) predicts Boris winning with a 6 point lead. The latest Mori poll (for Unison, a left wing trade union) predicts Ken winning with a 4 point lead. So it looks like there's not much in it, but you've also gotta ask yourself about the accuracy of polls, given that these two polls put the candidates 10 points apart!
It's pretty exciting for an election anyway....most recent elections have been rubbish. Fingers crossed we get Ken.
Unlikely imho, not unless Labour want to kiss goodbye to even more seats than they already look likely to lose....
If they just pissed off 1 in 50 Labour supporters, it would be an additional 2% swing, which on current polls would mean losing 13 seats...
...piss off 1 in 20 they'd lose 33
bluestreak
HomosexualityIsStalin’sAtomBombtoDestroyAmerica
This post, in its entirity, sums up my thoughts.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
I've heard this is the case, yes - but it wasn't the point I was making.
The Evening Standard crowing early over a Boris victory is not going to get Tory voters out. It is, on the other hand, likely to get left-ish voters out to stop him. A lot of people don't normally vote, and the more politically engaged of these tend to be on the left rather than the right. Hence, I think the polls are wrong, and the Evening Standard is possibly creating a 1992 trap for itself. Early polls announcing premature victory for one side tends to pull out the voters for the other.
Might be wishful thinking, of course, but those yougov/ES polls are way out of whack with the others. My guess is that they will motivate the Ken vote far more than they will damage it.
bluestreak
HomosexualityIsStalin’sAtomBombtoDestroyAmerica
Well, he's going to nationalise the railways and lower ticket prices.
No wait, he's going to do absolutely nothing of the sort. He's going to carry on doing exactly the same thing because he has no power to change the PPP arrangement, and even if he did, he wouldn't, because his party approves of it and supports it.
Simply put, KBJ, the work being done is to improve the system. If the work isn't done, the system would collapse. You would then blame Ken for this. You can't have it both ways.
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