Discussion in 'world politics, current affairs and news' started by brogdale, Aug 15, 2014.
Mosul's bloodbath: 'We killed everyone - IS, men, women and children'
the ISIS live map has an update "british journalist held hostage by ISIS found dead in Mosul"
surely it's John Cantlie?
British journalist held hostage by ISIL reported dead in Mosul: Iraqi media - ISIS - ISIL map, map of war in Syria, Iraq, Libya - Daesh map - Mosul operation - isis.liveuamap.com
These seems to be form an al sura tweet. They say they talked to isis prisoners who told them this. Very flimsy, but totally possible.
Al sura seems to be a pro-iraqi state anti-barzani platform.
the odds of him making it out of captivity alive were always close to zero, but its still sad. its among the weirdest ISIS-related stories there has been.
On Musings On Iraq Post Mosul Liberation Day 17 Jul 27 2017
If I recall correctly the 16th Division was reformed from units that collapsed in the face of IS's advance in the Summer of 2014. IS massacred a large number of ISF soldiers sometimes sorting out Shia men for execution. It's no excuse but there's probably an element of revenge for that here.
On Niqash IS Far From Gone: For Iraq, One Down, Three More Battles To Go
All three of these battles have political complications as the article explains.
On Brookings Evidence-based keys to a stable, post-caliphate Iraq
Looks at a number of studies on recurring civil wars.
On BuzzFeedNews Inside Iran’s Mission To Dominate The Middle East
That numbers probably an overestimate. Not all Iraqi Hashd are loyal to Iran. I've seen estimates around the 100K mark for Hashd strength. It's still a big strategic reserve of Jihadist manpower. And that's just the Iraqis, Iran's drawing on Shia manpower elsewhere in Asia too.
Article points out Iran's militias tend to be rate as more effective than anything US training efforts amongst Sunni Arabs have produced. Mentions recent reports of them training in the use of Explosive Formed Penetrators. The Iranian gadget that killed and maimed a lot of our soldiers during the Iraqi occupation. That's an ominous sign of a clash coming with US forces.
The rise of these militias and a far firmer Iranian grip on Iraq and Syria may be the big legacy of IS's Iraqi rising in 2014. The PKK's Rojava, a US protectorate, another. Both are ticking regional time bombs.
On Musings On Iraq 1,459 Killed, 636 Wounded In Iraq July 2017
Attacks down in most of Iraq but Badr Brigade fiefdom in Diyala still not an advert for IRGC counterinsurgency.
On Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi Blog The Archivist: The Islamic State's Security Apparatus Structure in the Provinces
The IS Caliphate as a rather leaky authoritarian state.
On Musings On Iraq Post Mosul Liberation Day 28 Aug 7 2017
This is a mess, Mosul had a large (on paper 60K in 2014) local police force that was fairly well rated though it had declined as Baghdad asserted it's authority and squabbled with the (pretty awful) local governor.
On WaPo Islamic State’s next move could be underground criminal networks
As the author explains this resort to the black economy is rather likely. IS still has muscle, a lot of money, international connections and a truly fear inspiring reputation.
No shit Sherlock
On CMEC Will the September 25 Referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan Lead to an Independent State?
Three analysts all doubtful. As Sowell has pointed out it's a bit Barzani clan charade with the outcome a foregone conclusion. KRG Kurds will vote sentimentally for independence even if they know they're a broke, riven polity and actually pretty dependent on their neighbours.
Islamic state claims responsibility for attack on Egyptian police car: AMAQ
ISIS surrounded in Raqqa centre but Kurdish commander sees long battle
On CMEC Abadi’s Momentary Refuge in Victory
Sowell on the dilemmas facing Abadi.
Note the distrust of the judiciary to even jail IS fighters. In 2013 IS began breaking out a large strategic reserve of men from Iraqi jails. Some were AQI veterans others new recruits gained in prison. IS had dedicated officials managing the prison population; it was that important to their strategy. This also goes back to US capture rather than kill policies in the Bush era and Camp Bucca. Iraq's jails were an incubator of the second rising. After what happened in 2014 ISF soldiers, Hashd and Pesh sometimes taking no IS prisoners should not be a surprise.
In an era of routine targeted assassinations by western power when SF got sent to Mosul with kill lists of foreign fighters it's a bit hypocritical to get overly judgemental about these things.
On Musing On Iraq Post Mosul Liberation Day 34 Aug 13 2017
The former governor basically destroyed his own support in Mosul by becoming too close to Turkey and the KRG. When he called for a city favoured by Baath officers as a place of retirement to resist IS little happened. The ISF had not been behaving well in Mosul. The last time the sticky fingered Pesh entered Mosul was not remembered fondly by locals. The Pesh remained outside during the retaking of Mosul this year. In 2014 owning the decision to bring the KDP militia in would have been politically courageous. PM Maliki finally was the guy in charge when IS took Mosul and is the most to blame but Nujafi and Barzani in Irbil really were part of the problem as well. All three tended to squabble and appear to have underestimated the ability of a relative small IS force to take a big city. It wasn't as sudden as it appeared in the MSM; the situation in Mosul had been deteriorating for sometime as IS carefully created the conditions for the city's fall. At this stage it was probably too late. It was less reported but like the ISF the Pesh also collapsed before the surprising advance of IS in areas like Sinjar. IS's ability to conduct highly mobile battalion sized battles wasn't something Iraqi forces were trained to deal with.
On War On The Rocks THE ISLAMIC STATE MAY BE FAILING, BUT ITS STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS LEGACY IS HERE TO STAY
As threats go IS always was hugely self hyped but it has had Western states acting like easily scared ninnies. That actually detracts from taking other threats as seriously as they should be taken. The great flaw of the endless, distracting GWOT. Active US enemies like Russia, North Korea, Iran all dwarf IS's modest capabilities but don't have the terrifying PR machine of the Caliphate's paper tiger.
On CTC Sentinel PREDICTING THE SHAPE OF IRAQ’S NEXT SUNNI INSURGENCIES
Perceptive piece by Knights. He does not see IS as a movement in "disarray" thanks to its territorial losses but one building towards a new insurgency. He points to new areas of Shia and Kurdish militia "colonisation" as possible hot spots. Diyala under Badr is currently a mess. He also points to Dibis district where tension with new Kurdish masters is spawning an insurgency. He's disturbed by new IS activity in the Baghdad Belts. Knights also sees the continuing Syrian Civil War feeding insurgent activity in areas like Anbar. Ungoverned areas have always featured in Iraq and he sees those as a problem. As always he recommends improved Baghdad/Irbil security forces with a far greater mission emphasis on protecting the population as essential. Of course behind that there has to be the political will not simply to oppress restive populations.
Consider that and think of Assad's manpower poor grab for Caliphate territory in Eastern Syria.
In TDS Iraqi forces close in on Daesh-held Tal Afar
Note the large Hashd force. The Turks were making aggressive noises about the Hashd being involved in Tal Afar last year. Iranian Turkish relations seem to have approved since then. Now taking the city is finally happening with a big Hashd involvement. Tal Afar in population terms in 2014 was about 10% smaller than Raqqa. Tal Afar has often been a hub of Salafi-Jihadi activity in Iraq for a while.
Trump's head of the NSC McMaster commanded the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment out there in 05. He was credited as a rather enlightened counterinsurgent working closely with locals at a time when the US officer corps was often a bit overly "kinetic" in Iraq. It's one of the reasons he became such a well respected officer within the US military.
The Shia population fled IS in 2014.
On Niqash.org Next Stop, Tal Afar: In Northern Iraq, Forces Prepare For Extremists’ Last Stand
Tal Afar is important but like Raqqa it's hardly IS's "last stand".
Who are you speaking to?
On Rudaw Peshmerga, Iraqi forces on high alert around ISIS in Hawija
Goes into detail about each of these fronts. The Hamrin mountains are another area where Iraqi insurgents have often taken refuge.
On Musings On Iraq Tal Afar Battle Day 4
Seems to be progressing quickly. The Hashd involvement is not going to please Erdogan. Great Satan involvement not pleasing some of the Hashd.
Nobody. He's effectively turned this and a couple of other threads into his own personal blog where he gets to play at being his idea of a foreign relations and policy wonk.
It's why I hardly bother with this thread and others that he's spammed in such a manner.
On IIR Decentralized Rent Seeking in Iraq’s Post-ISIS Economy: A Warning from the Concrete Block Industry
The "corruption free for all" in Tuz Khurmatu as Hashd militias chaotically extort fees at checkpoints crushing the economy. Many regime "controlled" areas in Syria appear to have similar problems.
CrabbedOne , why don't you do a blog instead? That way if people here want to read it they can, but it leaves this thread and the Syria one for other people to read and post on. No one posts here and I don't think people bother reading either, it's too much. I'm not even sure of your politics, it's just too much information. This is a bulletin board, a communal space, not a blog.
I agree. While I do appreciate the time and effort you put into posting all this stuff I feel like it's killed any level of interactive discussion. I'd visit and read a blog though.
The links are sometimes very interesting, so thanks for that. But I def agree a blog or a seperate news thread might work better.
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