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The end of suburbia - becoming a reality

Umm, I'd disagree.

You disagree with the notion that cities concentrate body odour and misery? Join me on the 0739 from New Cross to London Bridge. ;) Come to think of it, perhaps they were coming from the suburbs :eek:

What is it with personal hygiene in this country? Er sorry for the rambling.
 
Sutton isn't a slum ffs :D

Sutton and Watford are both really railway suburbs as well. Slough's got a lot more road traffic than either of those.

As for slums? Well, there's Sutton and then there's Sutton. North of the Croydon-Epsom line is definitely a lot dodgier than south of it. :)
 
Where the jobs of the future are located will also make quite a difference. If the knowledge economy could fill our bellies then I think the suburbs would be more likely to have a future, and more of their houses have cavity walls that can be filled with nice insulation.

I am presently living 5 minutes walk from town centre, where there are busses and trains, and a canal runs close to my house. This seems like a good idea but Im not really sure the future will go exactly the way that the doom experts are currently suggesting.
 
The suburbs could well have a future, but it will be a radically different one from the present. Like most people I grew up in a suburb, and therefore know their dissadvantages all too well... a lack of local shops and services, little sense of community, poor public transport etc.

However if the acres of land that currently house the soon to be redundent fleets of two or three cars, the lawns and flower beds were converted to grow food, suburbs could almost become self suffcient. If the gardens were joined into vast community plots, and community markets sprung up all around then the suburbs would thrive. Dig for Victory needs updating to 'Dig for Survival'

The low density modern suburbs, rather than those ribbon developments along rail and tram lines of the late 19th and early 20th Cs, would have problems with transport. Public transport would probably need to be if anything scaled down if the energy crunch became severe, and driving would be impossible so at least in the interim while transition is taking place, low density suburbs would no longer be a place for city commuters to live.

However knowledge based work can be done these days mainly using computers, so the need to travel would be greatly diminished.

The need for cities as centres for the exchange of goods and ideas will remain as it has throughout history, although transport will probably be dominated by cycling and walking, but I have no idea if cities of the size of today can survive in a low carbon environment.

If we start the transition now, I think life in the low carbon cities and suburbs of future will be much improved on today. Perhaps less comfortable, less opportunity for hyper mobility and excess in general, but much more community spirit and a return to a quieter more pleasant pace of life.
 
Everybody needs to bear in mind that the documentary and news story in question are about the american suburbs. These are not built around train stations and are completely unworkable without constant car use. European cities will cope much better, as even the suburbs here are relatively dense compared to the excess of american sprawl
 
I'd have to agree with Crispy Suburbia in Britain is a lot denser and closer to the city/towns they serve. One can easily cycle and they are relatively well served by bus routes.
 
I'd have to agree with Crispy Suburbia in Britain is a lot denser and closer to the city/towns they serve. One can easily cycle and they are relatively well served by bus routes.

Yes, this is true, but although the challenge for American suburbs is greater than for ours, I think there remains an urgent need for us to both better understand the likely impacts of a low carbon world and begin the transition towards it.

British suburbs have high levels of car dependence, and remain a long way from sustainable in terms of energy use, and of course should the pressures of climate change and lack of oil destroy the mechanised and oil fertilised agricultural system, I imagine suburbanites would not currently be prepared for self suffciency.

In terms of transport we need to think about freight and food delivery, new localised production and delivery chains, supplies of water as well as converting local traffic to walking and cycling.

We also need to look at a radical reallocation of land use.

One dissadvantage we have over the USA is that we live on such a crowded island, so almost all land would need to be put to localised food production, but crops like Wheat would still need to be grown on a large scale and imported into the main population centres.

In conclusion, although we are starting from a better base than the USA, I wouldn't say our suburbs are ready for a low carbon world quite yet.
 
We have nuclear, we will have fusion, ain't nothing like a fuel price increase to galvanise the electric car industry.

Fwiw, I tend to think of it as like battery technology - didn't progress a jot after WW2 (when the imputus was mainly submarines), but then once mobile phones became possible . . .
 
Mainstream fusion research is a never-ending money sink. Anyone who thinks controlling a dynamic 100,000,000 degree plasma is cheap, easy, or even possible is deluded, IMO.

I have hope for the polywell device, but that's still in early research.

Pinning hopes on technology that's not yet been invented is the very height of hubris, if you ask me.
 
I have hope for the polywell device, but that's still in early research.

Pinning hopes on technology that's not yet been invented is the very height of hubris, if you ask me.
I don't know what you mean by 'invented'. Fusion exists, the stage we're now at is to build a large enough reactor to consider the next set of issues, which as you'll know is what ITER is about.

In the mean time, we do have nuclear and mass production of the first electric cars has begun - it'll be a slow process prising the dead hand of the oil lobby off goverment policy, but it is inevitable - inevitable from a capitalist efficiency pov, that is. imo.
 
fusion exists
over-unity efficient, large scale fusion doesn't. ITER may get built. It may even work. However, it will cost billions and billions and will not make it to mass production anywhere near in time to replace oil.
 
we'll get the bus instead, and small shops will become viable again - it'll be alright.

Till the sea level rises get us like.
 
In the mean time, we do have nuclear and mass production of the first electric cars has begun - it'll be a slow process prising the dead hand of the oil lobby off goverment policy, but it is inevitable - inevitable from a capitalist efficiency pov, that is. imo.

I'm no expert on nuclear energy but it is my understanding that we are unlikely to see any new nuclear power plants before 2030, as for fusion.. I understand should there be no problems in upscaling the technology we might be able to see them start working sometime between 2050 and the end of the century.

Since we have passed peak oil, the only thing we have to charge these electric cars you talk about is dirty coal.

Basically you are recommending the destruction of the biosphere. but hey, I can see why you beleive an extra decade more of modern suburban life is well worth the end of a human habitable planet!
The alternitive to rampant and irreverible climate change is simply to transition to a sitation where people walk and cycle for transport, and have to get to know their communities.
 
Apparently- if the motor bus had been patented and run succesfully before 1910 - much of London's suburbs would have been of a lower density than the Victorian steam train suburbs.(see books by Kellett and Dyos)

The tube lines of the Edwardian era spread the city but retained a fairly high density of population - twas the post war car revolution that sparked off the further growth of lower density suburbs (as before people aligned themselves to a 20 min walk to the tube / "Southern Electric" - or a 1/2 mile bus journey to the station.

One of the best books is Alan A Jackson "Semi Detached London" which explores some of these themes - reccomended.

The best suburbs need to be revitalised and cherished - bulldoze the rest and rebuild.
 
I used to believe fusion would be what saved us from the oil running out. However:

If all goes well with the operation of ITER and the construction of the first electricity-generating plant that follows it, the first reliable commercially available electrical power from fusion should be available around 2045. This would be after a five year experimental and shakedown operation phase of this first-generation plant.

ITER

Many of the oil producing countries have passed peak oil. I seriously doubt we can keep living off fossil/nuclear for all energy needs till 2045 without radical changes in society and infrastructure.
 
Arcologies are something we should look into more in terms of where/how we live. The basic premise is build denser and more ecological, and build dense with at the same time high emphasis on human/psychological needs for space. Whether anyone will take it seriously though...
 
I'm no expert on nuclear energy but it is my understanding that we are unlikely to see any new nuclear power plants before 2030, as for fusion.. I understand should there be no problems in upscaling the technology we might be able to see them start working sometime between 2050 and the end of the century.

Since we have passed peak oil, the only thing we have to charge these electric cars you talk about is dirty coal.

Basically you are recommending the destruction of the biosphere. but hey, I can see why you beleive an extra decade more of modern suburban life is well worth the end of a human habitable planet!
The alternitive to rampant and irreverible climate change is simply to transition to a sitation where people walk and cycle for transport, and have to get to know their communities.

Good post. I don't think that the environmental crisis predetermines one type of urban planning structure and transport use. Lots of different solutions will be tried. Its going to be so interesting to see what emerges. :) Bring on the New Urbanism. :cool:
 
This article from http://www.kunstler.com/ is a very comprehensive take on the problems American suburbia faces.

He argues the banks which have loaned money to generate economic growth are collapsing, at the very time that the real fundamental wealth, food, energy and mineral resources are nearing exhaustion. Meanwhile communities, which are the only system in times of trouble that in the past has saved soceity from complete meltdown, has been practically abolished, replaced by low density car dependent suburbs.

He conculudes with suggestions about the re-localisation of the economy, but points out his suggestions are unpopular even among the "environmental" elites, who are too busy being entranced by new-and-groovy ways to keep all the cars running.

Similar to the Tories and Labour's ideas for mitigating Peak Oil through a programme of encouraging people to buy (extremely inefficient) electric cars??? Which is basically saying, "ok we've run out of oil, so lets burn all the coal until it runs out too, and just hope that the environment does not spiral out of control."

After all Car Culture is worth keeping at any cost, isn't it?

Worse Than Grandma's Depression

What's happening is that American society is sliding into a greater depression than the one Grandma lived through. Food and gasoline prices are rising faster than the rivers of Iowa. But the prices of assets, like houses, stocks, jet-skis, GMC Yukons and pre-owned Hummel figurines are cratering as America turns into Yard Sale Nation.

We're a very different country than we were in 1932. In that earlier crisis of capital, few people had any money but our society still possessed fantastic resources. We had plenty of everything that our land could provide: a treasure trove of mineral ores and the equipment to refine it all, a wealth of oil and gas still in the ground, and all the rigs needed to get at it, manpower galore (and of a highly disciplined, regimented kind), with fine-tuned factories waiting for orders. We had a railroad system that was the envy of the world and millions of family farms (even despite the dust bowl) owned by people who retained age-old skills not yet degraded by agribusiness. We had fully-functional cities with operating waterfronts and ten thousand small towns with local economies, local newspapers, and local culture.

We had a crisis of capital in the 1930s... My own guess is a combination of a bad debt workout that sucked "money" into a black hole (since money is loaned into existence, but vanishes if the loans are not systematically paid back) plus a gross saturation of markets.

Our debt problems today are of a magnitude so extreme that... By any rational measure our society is comprehensively bankrupt. From the federal treasury down to the suburban cul-de-sacs so much loaned money is either not being paid back, or is at risk of never being paid back, that the suckage of presumed wealth... This would seem to be the very essence of monetary deflation -- money defaulted out-of-existence.

...the upshot will be something at least twice as bad as the Great Depression of the 1930s: people with no money in a land with no resources (with manpower that has no discipline), hardly any family farms left, cities that are basket-cases of bottomless need, comatose small towns stripped of their assets and social capital, an aviation industry on the verge of death, and a railroad system that is the laughingstock of the world. Not to mention the mind-boggling liabilities of suburbia and the motoring infrastructure that services it.

The banks have been doing their death dance for an entire year now, pretending that their problems are those of mere "liquidity" (i.e. cash-on-hand) rather than insolvency... But the destruction of money (resulting from loans not paid back) is now so intense that the game of pretend has reached its terminal point. The question for the moment is exactly who and what will be crushed as these institutions roll over and die.

Complicating matters is a global oil predicament. There are only a few elements of it you need to know. 1.) that demand has now permanently outstripped supply; 2.) that new discoveries are too meager to offset consumption; 3.) That under the circumstances, the systems we rely on for daily life are crumbling. I've called this situation The Long Emergency.

Our chances of mitigating this, and of continuing our current way-of-life is about zero. I've tried to promote the idea that rather than waste remaining resources in the futile attempt to sustain the unsustainable (i.e. come up with "solutions" to keep suburbia running), that we should begin immediately making other arrangements for daily life -- mainly by downscaling and re-scaling everything from farming to commerce to the way we inhabit the landscape -- but my suggestions have proven unpopular even among the "environmental" elites, who are too busy being entranced by new-and-groovy ways to keep all the cars running.
 
we'll get the bus instead, and small shops will become viable again - it'll be alright.

The small shops are gone, and knocked down to build office and flats, or Tesco Metro. They'er never opening again. Same with the pubs.
 
I find Roryer's post very interesting but I still can't quite take it on board and think perhaps he/she is exagerating. If the situation was as bad as he/she suggests there would be very rapid political knock on effects including for this autumn's Presidential elections I think.
 
If the situation was as bad as he/she suggests there would be very rapid political knock on effects including for this autumn's Presidential elections I think.
From today's Guardian.... Unsurprisingly McCain is calling for short-term gas price relief such as a summer suspension of the federal petrol tax, ahead of sensible, long-term policies on global warming.

Gas guzzlers and 'ghostburbs'

High oil prices are having a dramatic effect in the US, with public transport riding high and SUV production falling. Now, energy policy has moved to centre-stage in the coming presidential election. Polly Ghazi reports

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/02/fossilfuels.travelandtransport
 
Small shops can be opened again. There was a wave of small shop openings quite recently -in the 70s and early 80s, fuelled by Asian immigrants.
 
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