Minimising BNP seats
Disagree - UKIP have collapsed - Green 1, BNP 1 and Respect (Galloway) 1.
It will be a major fuck up for Barnbrook if the BNP don't get at least one - This guy wants to be fuhrer so bad it hurts! He'll use his GLA seat as a springboard to displace Griffin as leader later this year, I reckon.
Second preference votes in the polls for Mayor have put the Greens between 12 and 15% which indicates we should do well on the Assembly. We will hold 2 seats definitely, 3 is very possible and 4 would be outstanding.
BNP will win 1 or 2 seats. I'm in total disagreement with Jim Page on this. They have delivered more leaflets than ever before and were only 2,500 votes away from a seat last time when they did very little and had no elected councillors. They will benefit from UKIP's decline.
Respect's vote will split between the Left List and Respect (Galloway) on the Assembly list. I've seen no evidence that the acrimony and damage caused by the split has been in any way attractive to Labour voters. Talk of Respect (Galloway) reaching 5% acknowledges that the Left List will take some votes away, but hasn't indicated where new support is coming from, other than talk of people disillusioned with New Labour. Where is the evidence? Ealing Southall?
The Tories will probably gain one or two seats, Labour or the Liberal Democrats will lose one.
If you want to minimise the prospects of the BNP winning more than one seat you have to vote for a party that will win at least one Assembly seat. Not "
might win a seat" but "
likely to win a seat". Galloway "might" win a seat. German "might" win a seat. But how likely is it? That means Green, Labour, Lib Dem or Tory.
People voting Left List or Respect should do it for the Mayoral contest and in City & East, not on the Assembly list. If you do vote LL or Respect, do it in full knowledge that the side effect is that it helps the BNP.
[By the way, it also helps the Greens, so this isn't sectarian but practical - if less people vote for parties finishing with less than 5%, it makes it more difficult for the Greens to win a third or fourth seat]
It's much simpler on First Past The Post. Greens have pulled candidates out of contests in Sandwell and Huddersfield in the last year where there has been a threat of the BNP winning. Respect or the Left List would certainly not stand if there was a risk of the BNP winning a local council seat.
This is a major election, that might hand controlling votes on the budget of the London Mayor over to 2 BNP members, but a collective fog seems to have descended on the left, clouding this fact. Wake up!
Searchlight's guidance
here.
"
...it is more effective for people to vote for parties that are likely to poll at least 5%, so that their votes count in minimising the BNP’s seats if it does exceed the threshold."