Suspected swine flu at Glastonbury

[elbows]

Elbows, you are starting to scare me...

In what sense? Hopefully not in the sense of being scared about the flu itself, as Ive not said anything aprticularily disturbing about this pandemic, have I?

More likely scared in the sense that I seem to talk about flu far too much, almost an unhealthy obsession? Away from the internet I dont talk about it all that much really. I dont know why it fascinates me so, I dont know much about many other diseases. Me being a geek and sometimes worrying about my diabetic brother are likely not complete explanations for my interest. I suppose I first got interested due to all the fear stories about bird flu and I wanted to understand things much more so that if a pandemic ever happened, I would stand at least half a chance of understanding the reality of the situation.

Also before the initial signs of a pandemic emerged in Mexico, a heck of a lot of my posts on U75 were about peak oil, climate change and economic woe, somewhere along the way I lost my ability to do much smalltalk on interenet forums, dont know why.

 

[Jazzz]

There are lots of very interesting questions about flu. Whether te 1918 pandemic was H1N1 is not usually considered one of them.

Well sometimes it's good to ask questions that other people do not. It's very much the 'odd-one-out' as influenza goes.

 

[mrs quoad]

Of all the potential risks from vaccines, causing a flu pandemic is rather low on the list, and there is unsurprisingly a lack of evidence that anything Jazzz is suggesting is true.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Sheeple!

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Another Pict has just died of vaccine-induced swine flu. Those illuminati lizards really do have a lot to answer for.

 

[panpete]

As for Glastonbury and flu, the real story comes after, its about how many people pick it up whilst they are there, and then pass it on, rather than how many went with it, although the two are obviously related.

Im not sure we will find out, the flu has been spreading rather rapidly in certain parts of the UK recently anyway, and many cases arent confirmed by testing or reported at all.

I wondered this.
How many new carriers/transmitters of swine flu will be produced at large gatherings?

I wonder if swine flu is messy. I hate the thought of not being able to even walk to the bog to take a shit. Is there still chance for it to get better before it gets worse?

 

[elbows]

I hate the thought of not being able to even walk to the bog to take a shit. Is there still chance for it to get better before it gets worse?

Depends exactly what you mean - For a lot of people its already so mild that its hard to envisage it getting milder, but at the same time its almost bound to change in some ways over time. There could be less cases & spread whilst schools are on summer holidays. Flu is an unstable virus so its capacity to change over time is rather high, but nobody can say with any confidence exactly what sort of changes it will undergo. Even if it does not become milder, it will eventually stop being a pandemic once a sizable percentage of the population gain immunity.

 

[elbows]

Well sometimes it's good to ask questions that other people do not. It's very much the 'odd-one-out' as influenza goes.

Its mortality rate was rather high, so it gets a lot of attention, but in other ways it was not so different from the other pandemics of the 20th century that we know quite a bit about. Its quite possible that there were pandemics of equal severity to 1918 in previous centuries, but info is not so good and the global population & travel patterns were so different.

The 'odd one out' for people who are interested in whether humans have ever been responsible for outbreaks would be the Russian Flu of 1977. A strain of H1N1 remarkably similar to one that had been around in the 1950's reemerged, and because it seemed like it had been frozen in time, rather than mutate as normally happens in the wild, some scientists think it could well have been an accidental release from a lab.

 

[panpete]

Depends exactly what you mean - For a lot of people its already so mild that its hard to envisage it getting milder, but at the same time its almost bound to change in some ways over time. There could be less cases & spread whilst schools are on summer holidays. Flu is an unstable virus so its capacity to change over time is rather high, but nobody can say with any confidence exactly what sort of changes it will undergo. Even if it does not become milder, it will eventually stop being a pandemic once a sizable percentage of the population gain immunity.

let's hope that many get their immunity by a super mild, and barely noticeable infection. That, or invent a vaccine - hard, supposedly, but we are not having too much struggle with using our intelligence in inventing swanky weapons.

I am immune to TB. None of my family is. I didn't need the jab. The skin test revealed I had antibodies, where did I get those? I know TB is different to flu, but who knows what immunities we have?
I might be going to a festival in Swindon in september, hahahahhhah swine town/swine flu. Gathering of bug carriers/transmitters.

 

[Jazzz]

The 'odd one out' for people who are interested in whether humans have ever been responsible for outbreaks would be the Russian Flu of 1977. A strain of H1N1 remarkably similar to one that had been around in the 1950's reemerged, and because it seemed like it had been frozen in time, rather than mutate as normally happens in the wild, some scientists think it could well have been an accidental release from a lab.

Oh right, now 1977 would have been the height of the cold war (and anti-Soviet propaganda), wouldn't it?

 

[panpete]

Thanks for all the useful info, though, elbows. Its good to have someone in the know in our midst, even if some of us (like me) are prone to panic.

Pandemic

 

[Jazzz]

I am immune to TB. None of my family is. I didn't need the jab. The skin test revealed I had antibodies, where did I get those?

It's very simple. You were exposed to the germ, and your immune system dispatched it.

 

[elbows]

Oh right, now 1977 would have been the height of the cold war (and anti-Soviet propaganda), wouldn't it?

Im not sure as 1977 counts as the height of the cold war, but yes the cold war is certainly worth noting for its potential effect on news at the time.
However Im not sure that the possible lab origins of the 1977 H1N1 got any press coverage at the time, or even much since. Ive just seen a few fleeting references to it in articles about flu pandemics since 1990.

 

[panpete]

It's very simple. You were exposed to the germ, and your immune system dispatched it.

but how come no one else in my family was exposed, and why didnt I get TB symptoms at time of exposure.
Mebbe my folks have kept something from me.

 

[spacemonkey]

Also before the initial signs of a pandemic emerged in Mexico, a heck of a lot of my posts on U75 were about peak oil, climate change and economic woe, somewhere along the way I lost my ability to do much smalltalk on interenet forums, dont know why.

Because IRL you can fill your entire day with small talk....

However, nobody ever wants to talk about peak oil and catastrophic climate change.

 

[elbows]

but how come no one else in my family was exposed, and why didnt I get TB symptoms at time of exposure.
Mebbe my folks have kept something from me.

Many illnesses are asymptomatic in many people. And if you arent showing symptoms, then you are less likely to pass it on, for example because you arent coughing near people.

I dont know how accurate the wikipedia entry for TB is, but it suggests that most cases of TB are asymptomatic, with perhaps one in ten people infected going on to develop the full disease.

 

[Lakina]

I feel a bit ill.

 

[Pickman's model]

that's it yer done for

 

[Lakina]

I've started my will.

 

[Louloubelle]

I had flu a couple of months ago, even though I'd had the flu jab
It wasn't as bad as ordinary flu, probably thanks to the jab, but had all the swine flu symptoms except nausea. Just like a really bad cold only with very painful aches, chills and head aches.

I think it's likely that sf has been in the UK for longer than we know about (at least officially) and that lots of people have probably had it and recovered.

In its current form it's probably only a serious threat to people who are already ill and malnourished people who live in crowded slums and who have little access to health care

If it mutates into something nastier then things will get a lot more serious very quickly

 

[elbows]

The Independent have an article today about the 1977 Russian flu:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/s...oratory-cause-swine-flu-pandemic-1724448.html

"Careful study of the genetic origin of the [1977] virus showed that it was closely related to a 1950 strain, but dissimilar to influenza 'A' (H1N1) strains from both 1947 and 1957. This finding suggested that the 1977 outbreak strain had been preserved since 1950. The re-emergence was probably an accidental release from a laboratory source," according to the study published in The New England Journal of Medicine.

Be careful when forming conclusions from a quick read of the story though, as the wording can lead to the impression that the swine flu is more closely related to the 1977 H1N1 than is actually the case.

 

[free spirit]

malnourished people who live in crowded slums

Glastonbury then?

 

[Boycey]

a friend of mine's daughter is on an isolation ward with suspected swine flu (worry not, she's a hard fucker) and he's in quarantine at home, another mate who was sound engineering at glasto was babysitting her just before leaving.

 

[free spirit]

if fuckloads of people end up coming down with swine flu after glastonbury, or even just generally over the next few weeks there's a chance that the entire festival season could get cancelled I reckon.

*crosses fingers*

 

[Giles]

if fuckloads of people end up coming down with swine flu after glastonbury, or even just generally over the next few weeks there's a chance that the entire festival season could get cancelled I reckon.

*crosses fingers*

Surely if this illness is going to spread anyway, spoiling people's fun by cancelling loads of events would be a waste of time?

It seems to me not to be that serious anyway. Everyone in the UK etc who has died has been someone with other serious illnesses.

Most who go to pop festivals are young and healthy. Apart from spending three days drinking and taking drugs.

A dose of flu isn't going to be any worse for them than any other type of flu, is it? Why cancel events over a mild illness?

Giles..

 

[Vintage Paw]

It seems to me

I think I'd rather take the advice of virologists and the WHO than all the people who are wandering around saying "if you ask me..."

 

[William of Walworth]

I think I'd rather take the advice of virologists and the WHO than all the people who are wandering around saying "if you ask me..."

Are virologists and the WHO specifically advising that the entire UK festival season gets shut down because two cases were identified at Glastonbury though???

I think free spirit is being a TAD pessimistic .....

I'm inclined to be with Giles here, frankly.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Are virologists and the WHO specifically advising that the entire UK festival season gets shut down because two cases were identified at Glastonbury though???

I think free spirit is being a TAD pessimistic .....

I'm inclined to be with Giles here, frankly.

No, they're not. What I mean is, if they do decide that is the best course of action then I'd rather follow their advice than assume they don't know what they're going on about and a bunch of people with opinions on the internet are right instead.

 

[William of Walworth]

No, they're not. What I mean is, if they do decide that is the best course of action then I'd rather follow their advice than assume they don't know what they're going on about and a bunch of people with opinions on the internet are right instead.

Oh I'm with you on that, I'm very much not a kneejerk contradictor of scientific/medical expertise, or anything.

I just think that at this stage, it would a tad sensationalist to fear that all our festivals are doomed, the sort of thing our notoriously shock horror minded media would pick up on and inflate.

I'm honest enough to admit though that in my case, just back from Glasto and with a fair few more festies to go, I'm likely to be letting the wish be the father of the thought .....

 

[Gerry1time]

A mate's sister got Swine Flu at Glastonbury, and he's had to be off work for a bit til they saw if he had it or not. Turns out he's fine, and she's going to be fine too, just got a bad case of flu but is steadily improving and will be fine.

 

[free spirit]

Surely if this illness is going to spread anyway, spoiling people's fun by cancelling loads of events would be a waste of time?

It seems to me not to be that serious anyway. Everyone in the UK etc who has died has been someone with other serious illnesses.

Most who go to pop festivals are young and healthy. Apart from spending three days drinking and taking drugs.

A dose of flu isn't going to be any worse for them than any other type of flu, is it? Why cancel events over a mild illness?

Giles..

several festivals were cancelled during the foot and mouth epidemic, yet no festival goers were at risk from catching foot and mouth....

basically festivals are seen as a high risk because they involve thousands / tens of thousands of people travelling from all over the country bringing their strains of the different viruses together then throwing themselves together in crammed marquees / crowds where airborn viral infections such as the flu can easily spread, and then transported back to the peoples previously uninfected home areas.

the 3 days of drink, drugs eating badly and not sleeping much also hugely lowers people's imune systems ability to fight off the infection, making normally very healthy people more prone to succombing to the worst effects of the disease / more likely to be infected in the first place.

basically though, the danger mainly isn't to the festival goers themselves who would probably mostly be strong enough to recover, it's the threat posed to the young, elderly and vulnerable nationally and internationally in the autumn and winter should the disease be spread throughout the country by the summers festival goers, and basically become so widespread within the population that it could no longer be contained.

As someone who's entire next 3 months of work is based upon the festival season not getting cancelled, I've properly got my fingers crossed that it won't happen. I'm also painfully aware though that if it does go ahead, and swine flu really does take proper hold in this country this winter and fuck loads of elderly people die as a result, then it'd be pretty likely that the festival season paid a large part in contributing to this happening (along with other large gatherings of people from around the country).