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Somalians and Ethiopians Kicking Off Big Time

Follow-up to my last point, there's an interesting NYT piece on what's happened very recently which paints the Islamists' collapse as a grass roots one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/28/w...048be1e45de&hp&ex=1167368400&partner=homepage
The sudden reversal left it unclear whether a war that had threatened to consume the Horn of Africa had quickly ended, or the Islamists had merely gone underground, preparing to wage a guerrilla insurgency, as some leaders had threatened.
One of the first things the Islamists did after the fighting started was to close all schools in Mogadishu in order to send more young people to the front. “They’ve misled our children to their deaths,” Mr. Bilal said.

Residents said that crowds in one slum threw rocks at the Islamists’ pickup trucks as they drove by on Wednesday. Some people openly celebrated in the streets by hoisting up pictures of the transitional government’s leaders and gleefully chewing khat, a mildly narcotic plant the Islamists had outlawed.

The demonstrations helped prompt the clan elders, who are regarded as the pillars of Somali society, to act. According to residents in Mogadishu, the leaders of several major clans — and some businesspeople who had been financing the Islamists — demanded that the Islamist leaders return the armed pickup trucks that had been lent to the movement.

Faced with the loss of support from their counterparts, other clan leaders saw the coalition begin to crumble and withdrew their trucks as well, leaving little of the organized force that once lent the Islamists their power.

One adviser to Western diplomats who has close contacts with both the Islamists and the transitional government described the unraveling as an “organic process that rose up from the people, in an unorganized way, Somali style.”

Disappointment in the Islamists, however, does not necessarily translate into widespread enthusiasm for the transitional government, which until last week had been considered weak and divided by many Somalis. Thousands of people in Mogadishu, a war-weary city of two million, have begun to pack up and leave, residents said, afraid not only of the possibility of heavy urban fighting but also of a return to warlord rule, which kept Mogadishu in anarchy for years.
Seems the elders were distinctly unhappy at the Islamists' expanding the war to the Ethiopians, who are a proper nation-state style army with fighter jets, helicopters etc (and backed by the US) rather than a rag-tag collection of fighters. What happens next then is anybody's guess, but peace is at least a possibility.
 
Anthropology, any area that I can pay my bills with.

Al Jazeera English were reporting that some of the dead on the Islamist side in Mogadishu had Eritrean dog tags.

Great. Fucking great.
 
You can bet there won't be any Americans on Somalian territory after Black Hawk Down. Well, apart from a few CIA agents.

I doubt that anybody has the faintest idea what is going to happen next.
 
Actually we do know what is going to happen next - a lot of ordinary people, both soldiers and civilians are going to die, while the people who give the orders sit in comfort and security well away from the front lines.
 
Those nyt articles look like the usual lies damn lies and statistics that flood the western mediasphere whenever the US or other team-player conducts a regime-change operation. That first article sounds to me like what you'd say if you wanted to portray an invasion as a defensive move. Sure, I could be talking tin-hats here, but I've read enough to know who the first casualty in a war usually is, and where it's corpse is usually displayed.

I think it's a tragedy what's happened to Somalia re the Islamic Courts. For decades that nations had no order to speak of, and finally a movement emerges that begins to bring order, and states that it does not intend to become another Taliban, the IC wanted acceptance by the international community. It even states in one of the articles how the Islamic Courts relyed on 'tribal elder' support for its power, I've read elsewhere they also get funding from local business (order is good for business right) and it certainly mustered a national spirit in the Somalis when faced with Ethiopean invasion, and many Somalis who'd known peace for the first time in years.

Essentially the IC is a peoples movement born of the need for civil law and order, but long-time xtian adversary Ethiopea, (without doubt with American encouragement) is threatened by the idea of a stableised Somalia and has intervened crushing what was in my opinion an optimistic (and quintessentially Somali) move towards peace and investment.

It would have been far more effective for Somalias long term interests not to isolate the IC and leave it for the Jihadis to own, and to infuence it away from religious oppression, to promote female education, secular legal system etc.

But no, instead we have some crap about "the Somali government" (where the fuck have they been all this time) and with Ethiopea as proxy, the usual mantra of the Washington Agenda, Smash! Kill! Destroy!
 
I find it really hard at this distance and going only on reports from the mainstream media to work out what the fuck is really going on and who is motivated by what. I suspect the losers will turn out to be the ordinary Somalis, but I'm impressed with those of you who seem to know exactly what's going on...
 
Woeful response from the Security Council who seem to be meekly following the US and assuming that the Islamic Council had little legitimacy (and perhaps wa part of the Al Qaeda boogeyman.) You'd think they might show some deference to a regional organisation like the AU and resolve that Ethiopian troops should leave.

I'm not aware of any historical affiliations between Ethiopia and Somalia and therefore find their invasion highly suspect. Naturally, the US and their press present this as a case of bad Islamists imposing sharia vs the transitional "government", an ineffectual rag-tag bunch that could barely control Badme until a few weeks ago. Some hope they had of forming a government, international backing or not.

I guess the US is still smarting after their fuck up in 1993 and can't stand the thought of Somali's sorting this one out themselves.
 
Eh, Badme's the border town that's disputed by Eritrea and Ethiopia (and most of which was awarded to Eritrea after the 1998 - 2000 war).
 
foreigner said:
Those nyt articles look like the usual lies damn lies and statistics that flood the western mediasphere whenever the US or other team-player conducts a regime-change operation. That first article sounds to me like what you'd say if you wanted to portray an invasion as a defensive move. Sure, I could be talking tin-hats here, but I've read enough to know who the first casualty in a war usually is, and where it's corpse is usually displayed.

I think it's a tragedy what's happened to Somalia re the Islamic Courts. For decades that nations had no order to speak of, and finally a movement emerges that begins to bring order, and states that it does not intend to become another Taliban, the IC wanted acceptance by the international community. It even states in one of the articles how the Islamic Courts relyed on 'tribal elder' support for its power, I've read elsewhere they also get funding from local business (order is good for business right) and it certainly mustered a national spirit in the Somalis when faced with Ethiopean invasion, and many Somalis who'd known peace for the first time in years.

Essentially the IC is a peoples movement born of the need for civil law and order, but long-time xtian adversary Ethiopea, (without doubt with American encouragement) is threatened by the idea of a stableised Somalia and has intervened crushing what was in my opinion an optimistic (and quintessentially Somali) move towards peace and investment.

It would have been far more effective for Somalias long term interests not to isolate the IC and leave it for the Jihadis to own, and to infuence it away from religious oppression, to promote female education, secular legal system etc.

But no, instead we have some crap about "the Somali government" (where the fuck have they been all this time) and with Ethiopea as proxy, the usual mantra of the Washington Agenda, Smash! Kill! Destroy!
Articles like this certainly back up that view:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2527239,00.html

The Ethiopians staying is not viable, so it's going to be back to the same old insecurity and instability that ws alleviated by the rise of the Islamists in the first place.
 
When I was in Ethiopia back in September there were reports of quite a few US soldiers in Ethiopia Somali region and I suspect there are quite a few in Somalia as well- albeit not officially and using Ethiopians as their ground troops. Can't see Ethiopia getting out any time quick
 
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