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Solar pv headed towards grid parity, is this the disruptive technology of the next 15 years?

Discussion in 'science, nature and environment' started by ferrelhadley, Nov 14, 2014.

  1. spacemonkey

    spacemonkey I Love Noodles

    This video does an amazing job of explaining how close we are to a complete disruption, the combo of solar PV, storage, electric vehicles, autonomous driving and computing power are going to change the world so fast it'll make our heads spin -

    Be interesting to hear people's thoughts.
     
  2. gentlegreen

    gentlegreen Sproutarian.

    Statistics ... :hmm:

    I hope he's right.

    I really need to do some proper studying about battery technology - I'm only just beginning to experiment with 18650s ...
    I'm looking forward to having a solar-charged electric vehicle in retirement - though I will be aiming for small and light and DIY.
     
  3. spacemonkey

    spacemonkey I Love Noodles

    The first gen 21700 cells look incredible. They have incredibly high wH storage even at high C discharge rates and show ridiculous longevity already. Iterative improvements and only single digit % cost reductions and solar battery storage will be so cheap people will be begging manufacturers to make enough of them.
     
    gentlegreen likes this.
  4. ferrelhadley

    ferrelhadley colourless green ideas sleep furiously

    Solar power growth leaps by 50% worldwide thanks to US and China
    y=ae^kt

    Globally there is now 305GW of solar power capacity,


    so a=350
    CIA reckons installed capacity is 15,767,857gW installed capacity.
    so y = 1.6*10^7
    1.6*10^7=350e^kt
    50% increase should give k=0.5
    Rearranging
    1.6*10^7/350=e^0.5t
    45051=e^1.5t
    ln(45051)=ln(e^0.5t)
    10.72=0.5t
    21.43=t
    That is if last years 50% increase was maintained we would hit total replacement of all generating capacity in 22 years. There may be physical constraints on materials or some such.
     
    UnderAnOpenSky and spacemonkey like this.
  5. spacemonkey

    spacemonkey I Love Noodles

    Yeah, the dude in the video gives it about 7 doublings before we hit all generating capacity.

    Exciting times with massive implications, will we even continue with research into things like fusion?

    Massive geo-policital implications for countries with good solar insolation. Could we start using cheap solar for desalination and start greening the deserts? Strong possibility.
     
    UnderAnOpenSky likes this.
  6. spacemonkey

    spacemonkey I Love Noodles

    If anyone is interest I spoke to an installer last week who is installing for large scale solar for around £550-600/kWp.

    To put that in pespective, I saw a rooftop 4kWp solar PV system installed in 2010 for £21,000.

    At the current price that would now get you around 35kWp (basically a small field of solar).

    Insane.
     
    pinkmonkey likes this.
  7. HAL9000

    HAL9000 Lasting Damage

  8. ferrelhadley

    ferrelhadley colourless green ideas sleep furiously

  9. HAL9000

    HAL9000 Lasting Damage

    Tesla is pushing its battery solution. I'm skeptical about large lithium batteries, I assume cost is more important than space for these types of solutions. I wonder when flow batteries will be ready (cheaper chemicals more space required), there are a few companies offering this type of solution. I assume cost / amount of energy storage fails to match Tesla offering.

    PNNL: News - Flow battery based on PNNL chemistry commissioned

    If either Tesla or a flow battery solution is put near peoples homes, what happens if it catches fire?

    Home storage may face restrictions in Australia

    Lithium-ion battery storage may be banned inside Australian homes
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2017
  10. ferrelhadley

    ferrelhadley colourless green ideas sleep furiously

  11. UnderAnOpenSky

    UnderAnOpenSky baseline neural therapy

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