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Solar pv headed towards grid parity, is this the disruptive technology of the next 15 years?

Discussion in 'science, nature and environment' started by ferrelhadley, Nov 14, 2014.

  1. spacemonkey

    spacemonkey I Love Noodles

    This video does an amazing job of explaining how close we are to a complete disruption, the combo of solar PV, storage, electric vehicles, autonomous driving and computing power are going to change the world so fast it'll make our heads spin -


    Be interesting to hear people's thoughts.
     
    Signal 11 and ferrelhadley like this.
  2. gentlegreen

    gentlegreen Sproutarian.

    Statistics ... :hmm:

    I hope he's right.

    I really need to do some proper studying about battery technology - I'm only just beginning to experiment with 18650s ...
    I'm looking forward to having a solar-charged electric vehicle in retirement - though I will be aiming for small and light and DIY.
     
  3. spacemonkey

    spacemonkey I Love Noodles

    The first gen 21700 cells look incredible. They have incredibly high wH storage even at high C discharge rates and show ridiculous longevity already. Iterative improvements and only single digit % cost reductions and solar battery storage will be so cheap people will be begging manufacturers to make enough of them.
     
    gentlegreen likes this.
  4. ferrelhadley

    ferrelhadley colourless green ideas sleep furiously

    Solar power growth leaps by 50% worldwide thanks to US and China
    y=ae^kt

    Globally there is now 305GW of solar power capacity,


    so a=350
    CIA reckons installed capacity is 15,767,857gW installed capacity.
    so y = 1.6*10^7
    1.6*10^7=350e^kt
    50% increase should give k=0.5
    Rearranging
    1.6*10^7/350=e^0.5t
    45051=e^1.5t
    ln(45051)=ln(e^0.5t)
    10.72=0.5t
    21.43=t
    That is if last years 50% increase was maintained we would hit total replacement of all generating capacity in 22 years. There may be physical constraints on materials or some such.
     
    spacemonkey likes this.
  5. spacemonkey

    spacemonkey I Love Noodles

    Yeah, the dude in the video gives it about 7 doublings before we hit all generating capacity.

    Exciting times with massive implications, will we even continue with research into things like fusion?

    Massive geo-policital implications for countries with good solar insolation. Could we start using cheap solar for desalination and start greening the deserts? Strong possibility.
     

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