Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
Why would a Kipper use a modified Green logo as cover?
So, how many UKIP MPs will get elected in 2015?
- Thread starter common.sense
- Start date
They are planning to " target" Portsmouth South!
Is it too late to emigrate.
Will they use the closure of the dockyard as a campaigning issue?
Its from Thomas Paine, why the paranoia?
Be surprising if they didn't. This is, after all, the party that went into the 2010 election talking about a splurge in spending on the armed forces, although for what purpose was never very clear.
In answer to the OP's question, I reckon one or two tops, and probably not even that.
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
Pardon?
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
they haven't got the support to get any seats at a General Election, they got the vote out on a turnout of 35%, General Elections have a turnout of 60% + , a lot of their voters generally vote for other parties at General Elections, mostly Tories, but probably a sprinkling of Labour, and probably a few BNP voters too. A lot of these voters will go back to their original parties, as no one (or very few people) actually want these loons to be running the country
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
No-one would vote Kipper tactically. They may do it because they don't like Brussels, because they don't like immigrants, or because they don't like politicians - but hardly anyone would view UKIP as the lesser of two evils. Tactical voting is absolutely essential if you're a minority party looking to grub up a few seats.
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
You are wrong. Maybe take a look at the post history.
rekil
to menny cranks
SpookyFrank
Don't swallow the cap
the biggest obstacle they face is preventing nf getting behind the wheel after a couple of pints.
If he's a supporter of British ale he shouldn't be drinking Greene King, those hegemonising motherfuckers
SpookyFrank
Don't swallow the cap
dp
Puddy_Tat
🐈⬛
oops.
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-bus-crashes-into-portsmouth-station-1-6025252
As for the original question, dunno really. I think that maybe a dozen is possible as things currently stand. Although the potential for some sort of major cock-up in the next year is high, and it depends whether the tory press decides to keep plugging UKIP or to attack them in a way that will make people change their minds.
That having been said, it's kinda depressing that each racist / homophobic 'gaffe' made by UKIP candidates over the last couple of months seems to have attracted at least as many voters as it has repelled. There is a definite section of the population out there for whom the tories are no longer racist / homophobic enough, but wouldn't vote BNP because they see BNP as being too lower class.
steeplejack
seeing off the new ball
I think they may sneak one or two seats on the south coast. There was an opinion poll (can't remember from where) showing them ahead in Eastleigh, and Farage will doubtless try somewhere like Ramsgate.
Can't see them winning anything more than that. Their influence in 2015 will be more in the relative amount of votes they eat from Labour and Tory.
Can't see them winning anything more than that. Their influence in 2015 will be more in the relative amount of votes they eat from Labour and Tory.
Anyone who thinks they could win more than one or two seats does not understand how the British electoral system works and should probably refrain from posting on the subject until they have done some basic research.
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
So this is the 2010 picture.
Even a tiny Lib to Lab and Con to Lab swing would leave them needing an incredibly challenging number of defectors from other parties (and I assume that all the BNP votes go to UKIP).
Austin Mitchell Labour 10,777 32.7 -14.4
Victoria Ayling Conservative 10,063 30.5 +6.7
Andrew De Freitas Liberal Democrat 7,388 22.4 +3.1
Henry Hudson UK Independence Party 2,043 6.2 +2.4
Steve Fyfe British National Party 1,517 4.6 +0.5
Ernie Brown Independent 835 2.5 +2.5
Adrian Howe People's National Democratic Party 331 1.0 +1.0
binka
!!!!!!!!!
Well perhaps but mitchell himself said that they would be in with a chance. The EU fishing regulations had fucked over the town quite a lot. The UKIP guy they had on seemed reasonably confident, but then he would be wouldn't he
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
you'd be surprised the random selection and unexpect range of people i've encountered from different walks of life who flatly come out with the sentence..
"most of the people i know who voted ukip are idiots with no idea whats really going on!"
some hope it appears
plus torys are torys at a general election.. so expect votes returning
"most of the people i know who voted ukip are idiots with no idea whats really going on!"
some hope it appears
plus torys are torys at a general election.. so expect votes returning
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
Sitting MPs tend to overvalue the extent to which their majority is personal . . .
Oh well, less than a year to find out.
A large part of Mitchell's vote is personal and he is extremely Eurosceptic and an old Labour rightwing populist of the sort you don't really get now I wouldn't rule out them taking it. Whatever the result it will be between Labour and UKIP the others will get no where.
ETA:
That's true, but in Grimsby - Mitchell built a coalition of supporters who saw him representing their interests, irrespective of his or their party politics.
And none of the candidates to replace him have a popular touch either (can't remember if anyone has been selected yet).
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
Oh. If a Labour selection committee in a UKIP target seat don't have the sense and the backing to find a local boy who can fulminate about Brussels herring quotas then I despair of the party.
FiFi
Hot Cross Bunny
At the moment they are just taking advantage of the chaos inside the local Lib Dems.
Their leaflets were incredibly vague for this campaign so I'm not too sure what angle they will take from now.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I was just about to get into that. If they settle back to say 13-15% in the national polls there's a chance that the concentrations of those voters might get them a 3, 4, 5 even. Lower than that they will need concentrations of voters plus some local event (sitting MP on the take, EU migrant arrested for a serious offence etc). First past the post fucks falange.
Normally I love to see Lib dems crushed, naturally. However their genuine concentrations of support mean they are still likely to have more MPs in 2015 than UKIP. That's good. I think.
There isn't any - that's one of the problems with Grimsby's Irish style local big man'll sort you out politics.
Mr Moose
What the hell are we supposed to tell the kids?
The Lib Dems had far and away more voters at the last General Election and look at those sad bastards now.
It's hardly news to us that the main political parties and in particular the Labour Party are not able to meet the needs of many voters post austerity.
But don't for a moment assume that UKIP's vote, based as it is on no coherent agenda other than the word 'no' has any staying power. Gone in a political tomorrow.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
The Right's of Man Vs The European Court of Human Rights?
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