Shadwell ward by-election - Predictions

[Soul On Ice]

thats 43.2 % for Respect, a 3.2% drop, pretty good really, and makes it sound like you are really suffering from wishful thinking SoI

Firstly I would say "a win, is a win" which ever you look at it.

But in terms of it being a "good win" and ther being nothing to worry about the numbers can illustrate a point.

In the last election in the Shadwell ward the share of the vote was (based on total votes cast):
Labour - 30%
Respect - 65%

In this election it was
Labour - 40%
Respect 43%

which to my mind is a whopping swing = (Lab gain + Respect loss)/2
= (10 + 18)/2 = 14%

I guess you can prove anything with numbers and I'm not saying this means anything other than there was a massive swing to Labour and if I were a Respect member I'd be a little concerned

The politicians might lie, but the numbers don't

 

[JHE]

There's some as says it's the Tories what's rubbing their hands, what with the crap electoral system in this country.

 

[disownedspirit]

A very good result.

Whether a good result for warmed up left reformism is a good result for revolutionary socialists is another matter. I really don't see where the SWP think RESPECT will go in the long run from that point of view.

Also why aren't the SWP open about Rahman and Kahn being in the SWP?

i dont know about khan but i would be very suprised if rahman has joined the swp

 

[mutley]

Firstly I would say "a win, is a win" which ever you look at it.

But in terms of it being a "good win" and ther being nothing to worry about the numbers can illustrate a point.

In the last election in the Shadwell ward the share of the vote was (based on total votes cast):
Labour - 30%
Respect - 65%

In this election it was
Labour - 40%
Respect 43%

which to my mind is a whopping swing = (Lab gain + Respect loss)/2
= (10 + 18)/2 = 14%

I guess you can prove anything with numbers and I'm not saying this means anything other than there was a massive swing to Labour and if I were a Respect member I'd be a little concerned

The politicians might lie, but the numbers don't

But are you basing that on the previous election where each voter had three votes? I'm not sure how that would change things, but surely the comparison would only be valid if every voter used their three votes for the same party, which seems unlikely..

 

[Soul On Ice]

But are you basing that on the previous election where each voter had three votes? I'm not sure how that would change things, but surely the comparison would only be valid if every voter used their three votes for the same party, which seems unlikely..

You are correct to point this out. But even in this situation adding up the votes of each party as I did is a reasonable way of doing it, as it still gives a strong indication.

I did a check on the results by working out the share of the vote in the previous election based upon the candidate for each party that took the highest number of votes. It came pout with much the same result.

My calculations are not an exact calculation of the Butler swing but my calcs give a very good approximation.

Whichever way you look at it there was a significant swing from Respect to Labour. As I said, "a win, is a win" but I'm sure if the situation was reveresed with a Labour candidate holding on to a seat but with a 15% swing to Respect, I'm sure many on this board would be cheering about how well Respect had done and Labour need to watch out.

I'm just trying to bring some objective analysis to this

 

[idiotdave]

Hardly objective as Labour will not be able to field activists from around the South, cabinet ministers and party functionaries to campaign in this ward next time around, they will have too much else on their hands.

They had a gift in the form of the resignation and put everything into the campaign to try a kill off Respect in its strongest ward.

This was their chance and they blew it.

Respect will have wind in its sails after this.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

East London Advertiser coverage of the election: http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co....y=newsela&itemid=WeED10 Aug 2007 10:29:15:373

Miah's supporters included controversial party activist Carole Swords, freed on police bail just hours earlier after being arrested, badly bruised, outside the Shadwell polling station.

What's all that about?

 

[JHE]

What's all that about?

Much ado about nothing or a touch of state repression: take your pick

ELA coverage of the arrest: http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co....y=newsela&itemid=WeED09 Aug 2007 19:48:55:703

 

[Fisher_Gate]

.....

In the last election in the Shadwell ward the share of the vote was (based on total votes cast):
Labour - 30%
Respect - 65%
...

How the f**k did you get these figures? The actual results from the last election are in first post of this thread.

The Respect vote was down slightly but still very high, the Labour vote was well up, because the Tories and LibDems switched to Labour as the only party capable of beating Respect. Respect had a relatively unknown candidate, Labour stood the highest ranking defeated candidate in the last election, who was a former councillor for the ward. Labour are riding high in the national opinion polls as a result of Blair's departure.

This was a by-election in AUGUST, so you cannot interpret too much into the results as some people would have been on holidays etc. But it seems to me that in the circumstances it's a pretty good result for Respect and a poor one for Labour, who had hoped they could win.

 

[Soul On Ice]

Hardly objective as Labour will not be able to field activists from around the South, cabinet ministers and party functionaries to campaign in this ward next time around, they will have too much else on their hands.

That is a fair point - and I guess that will make some difference. But it can't have accounted for more than 5% of the swing. There was still a swing from Respect to Labour.

They had a gift in the form of the resignation and put everything into the campaign to try a kill off Respect in its strongest ward.

This was their chance and they blew it.

If it was Respect's strongest ward then I think you could argue Labour did quite well - they would have needed a pretty unheard of swing of well over 15% to have won it.

Respect will have wind in its sails after this.

As I said before - a win, is still and win and Respect are free to enjoy the warm glow of victory. But let's not over do the "wind in their sails" thing cos the result could well be seen as Respect clawing onto the seat after a 14% swing against them.

 

[Soul On Ice]

How the f**k did you get these figures? The actual results from the last election are in first post of this thread.

My figures from the last election of the share of the vote (Labour 30% and Respect 46% are the same as in the first post of this thread so I'm puzzled by you comment.

The Respect vote was down slightly but still very high, the Labour vote was well up, because the Tories and LibDems switched to Labour as the only party capable of beating Respect. Respect had a relatively unknown candidate, Labour stood the highest ranking defeated candidate in the last election, who was a former councillor for the ward. Labour are riding high in the national opinion polls as a result of Blair's departure.

Fair comment

This was a by-election in AUGUST, so you cannot interpret too much into the results as some people would have been on holidays etc. But it seems to me that in the circumstances it's a pretty good result for Respect and a poor one for Labour, who had hoped they could win.

I'm not sure how your holidays comment means anything unless you are implying that it is mainly Respect voters who go on holiday and thus can't vote (though of course they could apply for a postal vote). I believe any effects because of the holidays will have affected all parties on a similar basis.

I would agree with you "it's a pretty good result for Respect and a poor one for Labour" based solely on the final outcome - Respect won the seat and Labour did not. But if you think the fact that Labour came within touching distance of winning the seat back means that the local Labour Party will be despondent for more than a few weeks, you'd be wrong. All it has done is show the Labour Party that they could stand a chance next time.

 

[belboid]

My figures from the last election of the share of the vote (Labour 30% and Respect 46% are the same as in the first post of this thread so I'm puzzled by you comment.

except in your previous post, you had Respect on 60%, not 46!

 

[Soul On Ice]

except in your previous post, you had Respect on 60%, not 46!

Doh! I understand Fishergate's comment now.

But the incorrect previous post by me does not alter the fact there was a massive swing to Labour - and you can make of that what you will.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

except in your previous post, you had Respect on 60%, not 46!

He had "65%" actually - that's the figure that's made up.

The actual percentage changes are as follows:

by-election 2006 election Change
Lib Dems 2.8% 6.0% -3.2%
Tories 13.6% 17.3% -3.7%
Labour 40.4% 30.2% +10.2%
Respect 43.2% 46.4% -3.2%

The actual 'Butler swing' from Respect to Labour was -6.7%, not the "15%" bollocks SoI made up.

The significant thing is that the LibDem vote collapsed and the Tory vote was down significantly too. While Respect could have expected to have lost a small percentage due to the circumstances of the by-election (Respect councillor resigning acrimoniously etc), Labour stood a long-established former councillor, and threw everything into winning the seat, yet failed to win it back.


The really interesting comparison is with earlier elections. Labour (inc Michael Keith) topped the poll and had a huge lead over the opposition parties.

Shadwell ward election May 2002.

Party Candidate Votes
Labour Manir Ahmed 1,265
Labour Michael Keith 1,188
Labour Abdus Shukur 1,076
Liberal Democrats Nanu Miah 512
Conservative William Crossey 429
Conservative Richard Powell 402
Liberal Democrats Catherine Buttimer 395
Conservative Maxwell Rumney 334
Liberal Democrats Gary Marsh 327

In 1998, Keith personally topped the poll:

Shadwell ward election May 1998
Labour Michael Keith 1,346
Labour Bodrul Alom 1,229
Labour Abdus Shukur 1,112
Independent Abdul Malik 757
Conservative Richard Powell 589
Conservative Paul Ingham 547
Conservative Lawrence Ailreu-Thomas 490

Keith himself was first elected in a by-election in 1994 when he won 71.9% of the poll:

Shadwell ward by-election 15 September 1994
M.J. Keith Lab 1,783 71.9%
R.F. Roberts L Dem 317 12.8%
G.T. Callow BNP 305 12.3%
P.W.E. Ingham Con 74 3.0%

 

[Fisher_Gate]

Doh! I understand Fishergate's comment now.

But the incorrect previous post by me does not alter the fact there was a massive swing to Labour - and you can make of that what you will.

6.7% is not "massive". It wasn't even enough to win the seat.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

....

I'm not sure how your holidays comment means anything unless you are implying that it is mainly Respect voters who go on holiday and thus can't vote (though of course they could apply for a postal vote). I believe any effects because of the holidays will have affected all parties on a similar basis.
...

Impossible to say. For a by-election held in August the turnout was phenomenally high - most are dismal.

I've seen it claimed that most of the 504 postal votes were Labour. The amount of resources you have available (especially full time staff) is clearly proportional to a party's ability to deliver postal votes, as it takes a large amount of organisation, especially as in this case the by-election was called in such a short period of time (thanks to the Tories). I think it is arguable that an August by-election could (note: "could", ie not certain) have been advantageous to the party with the most established and well-resourced machine (ie Labour).

All you can say is that for a by-election held in August, there will be a greater level of uncertainty as to whether such a result would be replicated at another time of the year.

 

[Soul On Ice]

He had "65%" actually - that's the figure that's made up.

The actual percentage changes are as follows:

by-election 2006 election Change
Lib Dems 2.8% 6.0% -3.2%
Tories 13.6% 17.3% -3.7%
Labour 40.4% 30.2% +10.2%
Respect 43.2% 46.4% -3.2%

The actual 'Butler swing' from Respect to Labour was -6.7%, not the "15%" bollocks SoI made up.

Fishergate - having reviewed the figures I posted I'm happy to concede that my figures were tosh - the 65% share of the vote attributed to Respcet screwed up the calcs. As to it being "made up" as you say that was not my intention - I don't see what there would be to gain by doing that.

And you are right that the swing was 6.7% which is encouraging for Labour but clearly nowt as like as good as 14% and it means the rest of what I said in the posts was verging somewhere between slightly credible to total bollocks.

There you go - P&P poster in shock admission of getting it wrong!

 

[Fisher_Gate]

... the rest of what I said in the posts was verging somewhere between slightly credible to total bollocks.

...

Verging more towards the latter methinks ...

Of course, no-one would deny that Labour made up a small part of their massive amount of lost ground here, but put it in context please.

Firstly Labour are making a strong showing in all the latest national opinion polls, with leads of up to 10%, a complete change from the Blair period:

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/

Labour threw everything they had into this by-election, pulling in full timers and members from across London (from as far afield as Enfield and Croydon - don't take my word for it, read their own supporters comments http://grayee.blogspot.com/2007/08/shadwell-election-day-and-result.html)

They also stood a well-established former councillor, himself once elected with over 70% of the vote in a by-election.

The LibDems and Tories made little headway and enough of their supporters voted tactically (as people do in by-elections when the question of control of the council is not up for grabs) to give a boost to the Labour vote.

But Labour still failed to win, and look no closer to winning it back when all the seats are up for election next, in 2010.

By contrast, Respect weathered the storm of a difficult resignation and a lot of mud being thrown at them about the resignations of two of the twelve councillors elected in 2006. Compared to the Ealing Southall by-election, this is a very good result indeed for Respect.

 

[JHE]

Compared to the Ealing Southall by-election, this is a very good result indeed for Respect.

Yes, but that's not saying much!

Al-Respeq is pleased with its result in Shadwell and has every right to be. Its Bengali Muslim businessman won. This will help Respeqites to forget the dismal result it got in Southall.

Compare and contrast:

- Punjabi commie of Sikh background did very badly - and worse than expected - in constituency with large Indian electorate. (Beaten by another semi-Sikh - one with a Labour rosette.)

- Bangladeshi Muslim did well in ward with large Bangladeshi Muslim electorate. (A lying white multi-kulti NuLab professor came a fairly close second.)

 

[JHE]

The LibDems and Tories made little headway and enough of their supporters voted tactically (as people do in by-elections when the question of control of the council is not up for grabs) to give a boost to the Labour vote.

You are guessing. I would not assume that Tories would prefer Prof Fibber to Mr Miah.

Why would a bunch of Tories

• vote for a man who has recently told a nasty lie about David Davis?
• not quite like a local businessman?

There have been reports of al-Respeq and al-Tories working closely together on the council. What's more, following Mr Miah's recent victory:

"Tory members waved and smiled from their first floor office at the Town Hall as Respect supporters celebrated outside."

 

[Gumbert]

hey butch there he goes again...

maybe i should be a little clearer eh.

hes an islamaphobic bourgeois ideologue

literal translation, he's got his head full of ruling class racist bullshit...a mouthpeice for 'em....

'ideas in society....' etc

 

[cockneyrebel]

We shall see! It was more of a dig at CR thinking in terms of the health and general state of the left, rather than the class.

Indeed it was a dig, and a bit of a petty one at that. But I'm sure "the class" appreciates your staunch defence.

Obviously as I think revolutionary socialist ideas are the best way forward for the working class and reformism isn't, the two go hand in hand for me.

Also the SWP are a revolutionary socialist organisation so I was talking about them specifically as they are the driving force in RESPECT.

As it happens I shouldn't think this result will have any real significance for "the class" one way or the other on the scale of things.

 

[JHE]

Ninja Fraud Scandal

Two pieces from today's East London Advertiser:

Veil sparks vote row

Ballot fraudsters disguised themselves in full Muslim veils to cast multiple votes during last week’s council by-election, it has been claimed.

A political activist has told the Advertiser that after challenging one woman about her identity, he had his tyres slashed.

The activist, a Bangladeshi who did not want his name published for fear of reprisals, said he had been at one of the polling booths in Shadwell last Thursday when he became suspicious.

He said: “One woman came to vote at about 10.30am and I recognised her eyes: you get used to doing that if they are wearing the veil.

“Half an hour later a woman came wearing a slightly different veil. I was sure it was the same one.

“Then a bit later, she came back but this time without the veil and I recognised her. I challenged her but she ran away from the polling station.”

He then reported the incident to election officials who tried to tighten up security as much as the law allows.

The activist added: “They should tighten the regulations to make people provide proof of identity or women wearing the veil to have their hands stamped.”

He said he was aware that political activists had been farming polling cards from homes where people registered to vote had long since moved out.


Double voting anger boils over niqab secrecy

By-election staff in Shadwell were put on red alert after allegations that women were disguising themselves behind full Muslim veils to vote twice, it has emerged.

Presiding officers were told a number of women were committing ballot fraud last Thursday using the full niqab veil as a disguise.

One man who chased a suspected culprit down cable street later had his car tyres slashed, a senior source close to the election told the advertiser.

However, council staff were unable to verify any of the allegations. Instead they upped their security by asking women wearing the niqab if they had previously voted that day. They did not ask anyone to remove their veils.

A Tower Hamlets spokeswoman said: “During the day of the by-election (9 August) we were notified of a concern that attempts might be being made to vote more than once

“Presiding officers were alerted to this concern and, as a precautionary measure, an additional member of staff was assigned to observe at one polling station at Bigland School”​

There is no indication in those particular reports of which party is suspected of cheating or which party the Bangladeshi activist who complained belongs to.

It is, however, only fair to say that there have been plausible allegations of electoral cheating before in Tower Hamladesh. Those have been allegations centring on postal votes. The accusers have been al-Respeq and the accused have been al-Labour.

My guess is that the Bangladeshi man who made the accusations and had his tyres slashed may very well be in al-Respeq. In any case, whatever party he's in, good for him!

But what are the chances of any white kuffar in al-Respeq doing what he did? Diddly squat!