Sedgefield / Ealing Southall Results

[JimPage]

Nice One!!!

Seriously though its worrying to see the bnp doing so well in Sedgefield.

very much in line with their vote in May 2007 there. A few people on u75 have been urging fellow antifascists to look beyond the headline figure of won seats to see some very distrubing local results by them where they did not win (including a vote of 39% in one Sedgefield ward)

 

[KeyboardJockey]

They havent published their post election analysis yet to be fair, but not the greatest night for Socialism in west london

Thats assuming that Respect can be defined as even remotely socialist.

 

[cockneyrebel]

The basic problem is that at the moment things favour the far right far more than the far left.

The organised working class is in a very bad state, with rank and file structures in a terrible state and self serving bureaucrats running most unions.

Also the fact of the matter is that the global economy is booming so while the government is able to make attacks on the working class (PFIs, cuts to welfare benefits etc) they can do this because enough of the working class is doing ok through the economy doing well. Because of the state of the economy they can also put substantial sums into stuff like the NHS and education while simultaneously doing things that will bring the NHS down in the long run.

In this climate the far right is able to build a base easier than the left on issues like immigration/racism and by combining that withe some of the language of the left (as fascists have always done).

Obviously it doesn't help that the far left is in its worst state in 100 years and keeps scoring own goals, but I don't think that is the only issue, and the stuff above is probably more important.

At the end of the day anti-fascist stuff is always secondary to having to build a viable political alternative on the left. Because of the economic situation and state of the organised working class this is gonna be tough.

 

[cockneyrebel]

They havent published their post election analysis yet to be fair, but not the greatest night for Socialism in west london

I wouldn't say RESPECT is socialist. It's left reformist.

 

[glenquagmire]

Are socialist and reformist mutually exclusive then? I understood the opposite of reformist to be revolutionary - both being sub categories of socialist.

 

[KeyboardJockey]

The basic problem is that at the moment things favour the far right far more than the far left.

The organised working class is in a very bad state, with rank and file structures in a terrible state and self serving bureaucrats running most unions.

Also the fact of the matter is that the global economy is booming so while the government is able to make attacks on the working class (PFIs, cuts to welfare benefits etc) they can do this because enough of the working class is doing ok through the economy doing well. Because of the state of the economy they can also put substantial sums into stuff like the NHS and education while simultaneously doing things that will bring the NHS down in the long run.

In this climate the far right is able to build a base easier than the left on issues like immigration/racism and by combining that withe some of the language of the left (as fascists have always done).

Obviously it doesn't help that the far left is in its worst state in 100 years and keeps scoring own goals, but I don't think that is the only issue, and the stuff above is probably more important.

At the end of the day anti-fascist stuff is always secondary to having to build a viable political alternative on the left. Because of the economic situation and state of the organised working class this is gonna be tough.

Can't see much I disagree with you in this post.

 

[poster342002]

The basic problem is that at the moment things favour the far right far more than the far left.

The organised working class is in a very bad state, with rank and file structures in a terrible state and self serving bureaucrats running most unions.

Also the fact of the matter is that the global economy is booming so while the government is able to make attacks on the working class (PFIs, cuts to welfare benefits etc) they can do this because enough of the working class is doing ok through the economy doing well. Because of the state of the economy they can also put substantial sums into stuff like the NHS and education while simultaneously doing things that will bring the NHS down in the long run.

In this climate the far right is able to build a base easier than the left on issues like immigration/racism and by combining that withe some of the language of the left (as fascists have always done).

Obviously it doesn't help that the far left is in its worst state in 100 years and keeps scoring own goals, but I don't think that is the only issue, and the stuff above is probably more important.

At the end of the day anti-fascist stuff is always secondary to having to build a viable political alternative on the left. Because of the economic situation and state of the organised working class this is gonna be tough.

The odds ain't good.

 

[cockneyrebel]

Are socialist and reformist mutually exclusive then? I understood the opposite of reformist to be revolutionary - both being sub categories of socialist.

I suppose so. But RESPECT kinda mixes left reformism and left liberalism, it's hard to know exactly what it is. Not sure it is out and out socialist though.

 

[cockneyrebel]

I don't mean to sound pessmistic though, when I've got KJ and poster342002 agreeing with me it's a bit worrying

There are a lot of campaigns and united fronts to get stuck into and a political alternative can be built. But I think too many revolutionary socialists want short cuts or have too great expectations and I think a lot of this comes from have a poor analysis of the economic situation and a poor grasp of marxist economics.

There are some positive signs, but they are very fragile and so far uneven. Things like the national shop stewards network has to be built up and form a base, and it's very disappointing to see the SWPs attitude towards it.

 

[poster342002]

I suppose so. But RESPECT kinda mixes left reformism and left liberalism, it's hard to know exactly what it is. Not sure it is out and out socialist though.

I'd call it a mish-mash of clapped out identity politics reheated from the 80s that only serves to entrench the power of unelected "community leader" bullies.

It has a stupid name, too.

 

[treelover]

Good post CR

 

[Jografer]

'Ruling the streets' sounds like a stupid boast of third-rate thugs!

funny, I thought it sounded like pre-adolescent school kids.....

 

[Belushi]

The BNP candidate was one of the organisers of the fuel protests a few years back. Unfortunately they are becoming increasingly respectable in many parts of the country.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

I always take that as meaning 'well we're not sure what vote we're going to get but we sure do make a noise on the streets'.

But it is a piss-poor vote - I was hoping for a saved deposit. And yes Sedgefield is very ominous.

I'm not convinced standing in 10 seats would have made a big difference, my view is that in by-elections, unless you've got a very commited core vote, you can easily haemorrage votes to whoever seems likely to beat new labour, cos people want their vote to register in a very obvious way. Also Brown has clearly regained some of the ground that Blair lost. Whether he will maintain that position is quite another matter (and I'm not saying he'll def lose it quick either - if they avoid banana skins and unexpected foreign entanglements, it could last a while). The best hope for a quick improvement
in the fortunes of the left lies with the public sector pay battles.

The GLA vote will go a lot better for Respect, cos people can back Livingstone and protest by voting Respect as well, and far more will do that than would be willing to just register a no hope of winning protest in a by-election.

Approx 5% - 2,000 votes - were for Respect for the GLA list vote in this constituency - with two of the 11 wards at over 10%. Around 1,300 voted for Salvinder Dhillon for the First Past the Post constituency member (covering a little more than the constituency). The turnout was not that dissimilar.

Respect did not contest the parliamentary constituency in 2005 General Election.

However of the 11 wards covering the constituency, Respect only contested 1 ward in 2006 Borough Elections, scoring over 700 votes.

I'm not saying anything is guaranteed, but if Respect had stood in 6-10 wards in this constituency in the 2006 locals, then my guess is they would have got nearer to the 5% target in the 2007 by-election.

Considering that this is one of the most ethnically diverse parliamentary constituencies in the country, with over 10% muslim voters, over 20% sikhs, and standing a sikh candidate, Respect's result looks very poor indeed.

Remember Respect had to pay a deposit for this election (which it lost). Standing in a local election costs nothing and it only takes an hour or two to find 10 voters willing to sign nomination papers. This idea that the only decent campaign is a large one is ridiculous.

 

[The Black Hand]

Best ever BNP Parliamentary by-election result, about double best ever Parliamentary result in the NE of England- previous best 4.1% I think. Saved deposit, crushing the other far right opposition (UKIP / EDP) , and from what I can see a very strong local campaign by local members - not parachuted in outsiders (Spence lives in next borough and is a member of their Sedgefield and Tyne Valley group).

Came within striking distance of beating the Tories as well

All this is a very crowded field , including credible local independant, in a 99% white area, with no racial problems, and with the BNP supposedly in disarray if you can trust Searchlight client sites like Lancaster UAF/ Remember Stalingrad etc.

A time for new thinking?

I did my best ever fart in Spence's direction too

On the BNP website they said outsiders were involved, but there is a BNP local group, it is Darlington and Wear Valley. Spence is not in this group, he was bussed in, Spence lives in Derwentside. Before the BNP were crowing about their result, on their website they were moaning about being stiched up by the Police. They are as bad 'cry babies' as the Ultra Left.

Solid Labour areas like this always had political vacuum. Many Tories parties gave up really trying (after they finished believing it was possible for them to win them) in these areas because of the strength of Labour.

The BNP vote is not going to be of any use to them in that area, it is also very difficult to see them getting a higher vote than that.

 

[The Black Hand]

very much in line with their vote in May 2007 there. A few people on u75 have been urging fellow antifascists to look beyond the headline figure of won seats to see some very distrubing local results by them where they did not win (including a vote of 39% in one Sedgefield ward)

The ward where there were 4 candidates for 3 seats, Labour, Labour, Labour, and the BNP. That 39% was inflated because there was nobody else standing.

Have you finished your analysis of the May local elections Jim?

 

[JHE]

I did my best ever fart in Spence's direction too

Attica, the cream of the revolutionary intelligentsia (aged six and a quarter)

 

[The Black Hand]

Attica, the cream of the revolutionary intelligentsia (aged six and a quarter)

Look Oldie aged 99 3/4. If you haven't guessed that I was talking the urine out of the hyperbole that surrounds the BNPs results then you need to go back to school. COs there has been no history of fascists standing then of course every result they have is going to be the 'best ever' - though in reality it is meaningless.

 

[pingupete]

It's never a good result when your vote drops, but I think that we are pleased that we held 4th place, with a fairly minimal campaign. We probably lost about 0.5% to the Brown bounce, 0.5% to the Lib Dems and 0.5% to Respect. We've never stood in Sedgefield before, but were hoping to be closer to 2%.

I think Fisher_Gate is spot on with his analysis of why Respect's result is not as good as many had predicted. We recognised that to be a credible political party, and to even hope to challenge the biggest 3 parties requires not just targeting, but also voter recognition. Only by standing in every election do voters begin to take you seriously.

The BNP has a very high recognition factor amongst non-politicised voters and are increasingly becoming the vehicle of choice to deliver a kick up the rear to the political establishment. 8.9% from a standing start is shocking. It isn't a flash in the pan either. Their average ward vote in the North West region was 14.8% this year (100+ wards). Even assuming they stood in their best wards, that is still incredibly high.

9% or more at a Euro election (where people are more inclined to vote for non mainstream parties) means the BNP may threaten to win two Euro seats, one in London and one in the North West. Although less might be needed for the South East, the demographics don't suit them as well.

 

[Macullam]

They havent published their post election analysis yet to be fair, but not the greatest night for Socialism in west london

Respect, socialism is there a link

 

[JimPage]

I'm not saying anything is guaranteed, but if Respect had stood in 6-10 wards in this constituency in the 2006 locals, then my guess is they would have got nearer to the 5% target in the 2007 by-election.

valid point, the fact that the BNP stood in 14 of the 16 wards in May 2007 let people know they were in town, and they turned that support into a credible vote this time round.

although respects electoral challenge is growing , they really need to step in fighting council by elections etc to get their name better known

 

[JimPage]

At the end of the day anti-fascist stuff is always secondary to having to build a viable political alternative on the left. Because of the economic situation and state of the organised working class this is gonna be tough.

i used to think your way, but the situation with the BNP is getting so chronic
that i really think the left needs to prioritise antifascist stuff as their number one activity. we stopped them before, in 1977-9 and 1994 in particular, and there is no reason why they cant be stopped again

 

[JHE]

There's quite an interesting article in today's Sunday Times about the Southall election, focusing on the Tories & their candidate.

Nirpal Dhaliwal: Cameron is given a black eye by the real Southall

I see al-Respeq still has no item on its site about its crap performance in Ealing & Southall. Least said, soonest forgotten, eh?

 

[The Black Hand]

For your delictation, here's a link to Nick Griffins blog, of interest for a couple of reasons. Firstly, because of the history of the BNP in the North East.

http:// chairmans-column.blogspot .com/2007/02/north-east-tour-blog.html

"Blair’s local

Then it’s off to a lunchtime interview with a reporter from the Northern Echo. We meet in the Dun Cow, the thoroughly traditional ‘local’ where Blair had fish and chips with Bush a couple of years back."

Secondly, because just who the fuck is this? Any ideas Larry? Or is it just misinformation? (cos it could be...)

"Another member of the team is a former member of the left-anarchist Class War organisation, who saw the light a year or so ago and is now a keen BNP activist. He is also involved in the independent nationalist trade union Solidarity. We too chat as we work; he is particularly struck by the more than a hint of syndicalism in Solidarity's subtitle 'One Big Union'. "When working men defend their rights, Joe Hill is by their side" goes the old song. To be honest, he's more likely to be spinning in his grave. Oh dear, how sad, never mind!"

 

[Macullam]

I see al-Respeq still has no item on its site about its crap performance in Ealing & Southall. Least said, soonest forgotten, eh?[/QUOTE]

Respect worked hard to bring the anti-war and anti-privatisation message to the streets of Southall and congratulations to our candidate and everyone who worked very hard in the campaign. But the short timescale of the election made for difficult terrain. Respect came fifth with 1.6 percent of the vote.

The snap election was designed by New Labour to disadvantage other parties and was extremely undeomocratic. The timing of the scandalous suspension of George Galloway from parliament two days before the poll was clearly designed to affect the vote in Southall.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

Respect worked hard to bring the anti-war and anti-privatisation message to the streets of Southall and congratulations to our candidate and everyone who worked very hard in the campaign. But the short timescale of the election made for difficult terrain. Respect came fifth with 1.6 percent of the vote.

The snap election was designed by New Labour to disadvantage other parties and was extremely undeomocratic. The timing of the scandalous suspension of George Galloway from parliament two days before the poll was clearly designed to affect the vote in Southall.

Publicity for Galloway's suspension should have helped the campaign and the Respect candidate had stood previously as an independent in the 2001 General Election winning 2.6% of the vote and more than double the number of votes he got as Respect last thursday. He also stood in a single ward (out of 11 in the constituency) in 2006 (as Respect) and got more votes than last week.

No amount of spin can disguise the fact that this was a lousy result, that should cause a rethink about Respect's electoral tactics. Snap elections are the name of the game these days and the only way of preparing is to have a strong active organisation on the ground contesting as many elections as possible year after year.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

How could I forget to mention ...

Tariq Ali got 477 votes here in 1979, standing for the IMG-backed 'Socialist Unity' campaign.

I think the SWP called for a blanket vote for Labour (which in Southall would have meant voting for Syd Bidwell, then a tribunite, later a maverick).

 

[JimPage]

the Respect analysis you have all been waiting for....

The Tories were humiliated into third place in both the Sedgefield and Southall by-elections yesterday, finishing any 'Cameron revival' of their fortunes.

Labour retained the two rock-solid seats but their majority was slashed by more than two-thirds in Blair's old seat and by more than a half in Ealing and Southall. Gordon Brown staked his political capital on two early by-elections in safe seats - but the disastrous fall in the Labour vote is only disguised by the collapse of the Tories.

The Liberals scooped up the opposition vote showing that disillusion with Labour is as great as ever and that there is no sign of a sustained Tory revival.

Respect worked hard to bring the anti-war and anti-privatisation message to the streets of Southall and congratulations to our candidate and everyone who worked very hard in the campaign. But the short timescale of the election made for difficult terrain. Respect came fifth with 1.6 percent of the vote.

The snap election was designed by New Labour to disadvantage other parties and was extremely undeomocratic. The timing of the scandalous suspension of George Galloway from parliament two days before the poll was clearly designed to affect the vote in Southall.

 

[KeyboardJockey]

the Respect analysis you have all been waiting for....

The Tories were humiliated into third place in both the Sedgefield and Southall by-elections yesterday, finishing any 'Cameron revival' of their fortunes.

Labour retained the two rock-solid seats but their majority was slashed by more than two-thirds in Blair's old seat and by more than a half in Ealing and Southall. Gordon Brown staked his political capital on two early by-elections in safe seats - but the disastrous fall in the Labour vote is only disguised by the collapse of the Tories.

The Liberals scooped up the opposition vote showing that disillusion with Labour is as great as ever and that there is no sign of a sustained Tory revival.

Respect worked hard to bring the anti-war and anti-privatisation message to the streets of Southall and congratulations to our candidate and everyone who worked very hard in the campaign. But the short timescale of the election made for difficult terrain. Respect came fifth with 1.6 percent of the vote.

The snap election was designed by New Labour to disadvantage other parties and was extremely undeomocratic. The timing of the scandalous suspension of George Galloway from parliament two days before the poll was clearly designed to affect the vote in Southall.

Goebells would have been very proud of such outragous spinning of abject failiure.

 

[pingupete]

I think the bad news for Respect in the result is that they failed to overtake the Green Party. This was an ethnically diverse seat and an area you might expect, as many pundits did, for Respect to do well. Galloway visited the seat and there was a lot of campaigning, far more than we did.

While I think this is not necessarily disastrous for Respect's London Assembly campaign next year, it shows that gaining 5% of the vote is not going to be an easy task for them. Respect's actual party recognition is very low amongst non-politicised voters, and in a long list of party options, they fail to stand out in the way that "Green" will to our voters.

Respect might be better off putting "George Galloway" onto the ballot paper instead of "Peace, Justice, Equality" to up recognition, but that is a double edged sword, because Galloway may put off as many voters as he attracts in a London wide election.