Nigel Irritable said:
1) There is no evidence to suggest that Respect has progressed in London since the last Assembly elections. The council results were impressive in parts of East London but were actually down on the previous Assembly percentages, were they not? ...
No, No, No No!
This claim is yet another 'urban myth' to rubbish Respect perpetuated by the Labour Party and sectarian leftists, not justified by the facts!!
Don't claim rubbish like this unless you have looked at the data!!!
In those 50 wards contested by Respect in 2006, the change in proportion of the vote between the 2004 GLA List vote and Council elections went up in 40 of them,80% of wards!!! It went down in just 10 wards (one of which Green Street West in Newham, Respect still had a high enough vote to win all three seats despite the vote going down slightly!!).
The reason for the confusion is that Respect 'won' (ie topped the poll) some wards in the GLA that it didn't win in the Council elections. But this was because in Tower Hamlets, in particular, the LibDem vote collapsed into Labour, which was why Labour narrowly held onto control of the council. The proportion of the vote won by Respect actually went up.
In the GLA list election, what matters is share of the vote, not who tops the poll.
If Respect can maintain the improvement in vote from 2004 to 2006 into the 2008 elections, then Respect is in with an excellent chance of winning a GLA seat.
Get that fact firmly embedded into your skull, before you start to rubbish Respect's chances!
The change ward by ward in order was as follows:
Rank (improvement), Council, Ward, 2006 Council % (average vote method), 2004 GLA List Member %, Improvement 2006 vs 2004 (-ve means a decline)
1 Tower Hamlets Shadwell 46.4% 28.8% +17.6%
2 Camden St Pancras & Somers Town ward 22.9% 13.1% +9.8%
3 Ealing Southall Green ward 21.0% 11.4% +9.6%
4 Westminster Church Street ward 21.3% 12.3% +9.0%
5 Brent Harlesden ward 16.7% 7.7% +9.0%
6 Newham Boleyn ward 31.9% 23.2% +8.7%
7 Haringey West Green ward 20.1% 12.1% +8.0%
8 Newham Stratford & New Town ward 20.4% 12.7% +7.7%
9 Newham Plaistow North ward 31.9% 24.9% +7.0%
10 Newham Forest Gate North ward 21.5% 14.5% +7.0%
11 Tower Hamlets Mile End & Globe Town 24.6% 18.3% +6.3%
12 Southwark Faraday ward 9.7% 3.7% +6.0%
13 Haringey St Anns ward 19.4% 13.7% +5.7%
14 Newham Custom House ward 10.6% 5.1% +5.5%
15 Newham Forest Gate South ward 33.2% 28.0% +5.2%
16 Tower Hamlets Bromley-by-Bow 28.5% 23.7% +4.8%
17 Newham Royal Docks ward 9.7% 5.5% +4.2%
18 Newham Plaistow South ward 16.9% 12.8% +4.1%
19 Tower Hamlets Bow East 11.5% 7.6% +3.9%
20 Tower Hamlets Bethnal Green South 28.2% 24.3% +3.9%
21 Newham West Ham ward 16.7% 12.9% +3.8%
22 Tower Hamlets Bethnal Green North 19.1% 15.6% +3.5%
23 Tower Hamlets Blackwall & Cubitt Town 12.4% 9.1% +3.3%
24 Lambeth Vassall ward 8.3% 5.0% +3.3%
25 Hackney Clissold ward 13.2% 10.4% +2.8%
26 Newham Canning Town North ward 11.8% 9.0% +2.8%
27 Newham East Ham Central ward 28.9% 26.4% +2.5%
28 Tower Hamlets Limehouse 25.4% 22.9% +2.5%
29 Newham Canning Town South ward 7.7% 5.5% +2.2%
30 Tower Hamlets East India & Lansbury 16.9% 14.7% +2.2%
31 Tower Hamlets Bow West 12.9% 11.0% +1.9%
32 Newham Beckton ward 17.0% 15.2% +1.8%
33 Tower Hamlets Millwall 12.2% 10.5% +1.7%
34 Hackney Queensbridge ward 10.0% 8.7% +1.3%
35 Tower Hamlets Mile End East 24.6% 23.6% +1.0%
36 Newham East Ham South ward 13.5% 12.5% +1.0%
37 Newham Green Street East ward 30.4% 29.8% +0.6%
38 Newham Manor Park ward 30.6% 30.1% +0.5%
39 Tower Hamlets Whitechapel 33.8% 33.2% +0.5%
40 Tower Hamlets St Dunstan's & Stepney 27.1% 26.7% +0.4%
41 Newham Little Ilford ward 23.8% 23.9% -0.1%
42 Tower Hamlets Weavers 17.4% 17.6% -0.2%
43 Newham Wall End ward 20.0% 20.6% -0.6%
44 Hackney Cazenove ward 10.3% 14.6% -4.3%
45 Hackney Leabridge ward 14.6% 19.2% -4.6%
46 Newham Green Street West ward 41.1% 46.3% -5.2%
47 Newham East Ham North ward 34.2% 39.4% -5.2%
48 Waltham Forest Markhouse ward 15.0% 20.5% -5.5%
49 Waltham Forest Leytonstone ward 11.4% 17.6% -6.2%
50 Tower Hamlets Spitalfields & Banglatown 20.8% 33.2% -12.4%