Presidential Election & Uprising in Iran June 2009

[durruti02]

http://www.iran101.blogspot.com/ tons of videos and amazing photos

 

[bi0boy]

I don't like to say it but this uprising has about as much chance of sucess as London's mayday protests did.

 

[BlackArab]

Good luck to them.

If it had been this country we would have been sat here posting topics on 'How can the Left approach this oppression' before slagging off each others factions and ideologies.

This is the best news I've had all week, reminds me of a certain Sham 69 song...

 

[phildwyer]

What would the British police do if a bunch of toffs came out onto the streets and attacked them after an election?

 

[ohmyliver]

some on the blogsphere are calling it a 'coup'
http://garysick.tumblr.com/
(again don't know his politics, so....)

interesting rebuttal of the 'vote fraud' statistical anomalies
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/statistical-evidence-does-not-prove.html

Al Arabiya are reporting that:
the iranian government have shut them down for a week and
Iran arrests 100 reformists after election riots
http://www.alarabiya.net/english.html

and an iranian (judging by by the victory fingers drenched in green they are pro-reform site) twitter feed
http://iran.twazzup.com/

my facebook contact has had a lot of her iranian friends wall posts disappear from her page. It would also appear that the top story about the protest today being a trap is something she's also been passing on via farsi status updates.

 

[phildwyer]

But even so, how do we know that this bloke has the correct information? Why is it that he knows?

Here in Turkey no-one is questioning that the election was fair. It was fair. My friends and family don't like the result, but they're not saying it was illegitimate. The protesters are the same kind of people who came out onto the streets against Allende, quite frankly.

 

[ohmyliver]

some on the blogsphere are calling it a 'coup'
http://garysick.tumblr.com/
(again don't know his politics, so....)

interesting rebuttal of the 'vote fraud' statistical anomalies
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/...not-prove.html

Al Arabiya are reporting that:
the iranian government have shut them down for a week and
Iran arrests 100 reformists after election riots
http://www.alarabiya.net/english.html

and an iranian (judging by by the victory fingers drenched in green they are pro-reform site) twitter feed
http://iran.twazzup.com/

 

[durruti02]

updates from Hands of the People of Iran

http://www.hopoi.org/

 

[dylans]

Classic situation isn't it - 'reformer' from within the system utilises public anger to lever himself into power, shits on that public after. It would be a terrible mistake for this to turn into/stay within the bounds of a pro-Mousavi movement rather than an anti-system movement.

Absolutely. The exciting thing about this election has always been the energy and enthusiasm of the voters rather than any belief that any of the contenders offered much hope for any kind of reform.

Mousavi was never a "reformer." His own record is appalling and I believe there is some blood on his hands from his time as Prime Minister. This isn't the point here however, the point is some 80% of the population took part, despite being under no illusions themselves. This is an enormous force. If it can transcend the bounds of the Mousavi it could be unstoppable.

The question is, can it? It is hard to know the extent of organised opposition, outside of the Mousavi camp, but student and labour challenges to the regime have sprung up in the recent past and can be expected to do so again.


However. Ahmedabad is aware of this.

The Iranian state can be expected to be absolutely brutal in its suppression of any and all opposition over the next days and weeks.
Ahmedabad will wrap himself in the flag and seize on any opportunity to paint the opposition as traitorous or counterrevolutionary. He will seize on anything said by the West or Israel and throw it at his opponents.

We will see and hear some awful things over the next weeks, I fear.

To be an Iranian activist is to face torture, imprisonment and death. Their bravery humbles me, it really does.

 

[durruti02]

What would the British police do if a bunch of toffs came out onto the streets and attacked them after an election?

lol

 

[phildwyer]

Who do you think would benefit from an opposition victory? Not the peasants, not the proletariat, that much is clear.

 

[durruti02]

also lots of updates here

http://www.iranian.com/

 

[phildwyer]

lol

You need to recognize a counter-revolution when you see it.

I sure as hell wouldn't want to live under the Mullahs. But then I'm a privileged Westerner. The Iranian people have spoken, loud and clear. They should be allowed to have their will.

 

[BlackArab]

What would the British police do if a bunch of toffs came out onto the streets and attacked them after an election?

Same as they did at the pro-hunting rally a few years back perhaps

 

[durruti02]

don't be a fucking wind up

 

[butchersapron]

A real danger is a romanian miners type situation - rural poor being violently set against those who want real change. That would be very nasty indeed.

 

[phildwyer]

Look. The election was fair. The British press don't like it, the Iranian bourgeoisie fucking hate it, their children will run about chucking rocks at the cops, the Americans will cry "fraud" to high heaven, the Israelis will doubtless bomb them. Doesn't alter the fact that the government is massively popular among the poor.

 

[phildwyer]

real change

You parrot the slogans of Barack Obama now?

 

[Crispy]

many posts moved from other thread:http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=291856&page=5

This thread for news and upadates, other thread for more general talk about perception vs. reality of iran in western media/society.

 

[durruti02]

Look. The election was fair. The British press don't like it, the Iranian bourgeoisie fucking hate it, their children will run about chucking rocks at the cops, the Americans will cry "fraud" to high heaven, the Israelis will doubtless bomb them. Doesn't alter the fact that the government is massively popular among the poor.

so fucking what .. it is a brutal dictatorship hated by millions in iran, yes many pro western ( how evil is that ), yes pro capitalist, but also socialists and workers and i support this opposition .. frankly you have made you point .. if you wish to discuss the iranian regime there is a thread on world politics to do so .. this is for updates of what hopefully is a real uprising

 

[durruti02]

many posts moved from other thread:http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=291856&page=5

This thread for news and upadates, other thread for more general talk about perception vs. reality of iran in western media/society.

cheers crispy ETA sorry i did not realise you have moved this from general.. sorry i think that is wrong .. i made the specific point this COULD be of world changing significance and hiding (sadly) it in world pol is wrong imho

 

[dylans]

Who do you think would benefit from an opposition victory? Not the peasants, not the proletariat, that much is clear.

I don't think it would make much difference. In and of itself. An opposition victory may have released the pressure on some of the suffocating public morality that's about it. I don't think it would be worse however.

But in a way it's irrelevent. Because the exciting, electrifying thing about this election is not the incumbents at all, it's the power and energy of ordinary Iranians.

However Ahmedabad is a disaster for the everyone.

Despite the potatoes, the rural poor are still poor cannon fodder for the Iranian army.

The working class still enjoy high unemployment, and higher heroin addiction rates

Islam as ideology and public morality is suffocating and has been stoked up high by Ahmedabad. Iv'e been there.'This is a people who cannot surf the web, or listen to music, or dye their hair or walk with their girlfriends in the park., or dance in a wedding. And they are saying, "this isn't Islam."
And "we are not unislamic or unpatriotic for wanting an end to this strangle hold of our cultural life"

This. This, desire for an easing of the repression, stands outside the actualities of the electoral process and it is this that Ahmedabad fears most because it might just transcend the bounds of what he can control.

I hope so

 

[butchersapron]

You parrot the slogans of Barack Obama now?

I wasn't referring to the greens, i was referring to the urban poor who will hopefully take the opportunity to go beyond that first groups limited aims.

(Look, we all know by now what line you're going to take to fuck up this thread, you'll parrot the lies put up about 1956 just with different groups. I'd rather youy didn't. And we all know that your next post will be one professing that you honestly hold these views. And so on.)

 

[phildwyer]

so fucking what .. it is a brutal dictatorship hated by millions in iran, yes many pro western ( how evil is that ), yes pro capitalist, but also socialists and workers and i support this opposition .. frankly you have made you point .. if you wish to discuss the iranian regime there is a thread on world politics to do so .. this is for updates of what hopefully is a real uprising

Sorry, it is not a real uprising. Any more than the bourgeoisie who battered their pots and pans in the streets of Chile were a real uprising. It is a self-interested minority trying the impose their will over the popular vote, with the conspicuous support of outside interests.

 

[durruti02]

and here http://tehranlive.org/

 

[phildwyer]

I wasn't referring to the greens, i was referring to the urban poor who will hopefully take the opportunity to go beyond that first groups limited aims.

Oh sure. The workers are going to use this chance to seize control, right? Look I'm a lot closer to this physically and culturally than you are. This looks very different from Istanbul than it does from Western-super-Mare. I sometimes think you'd support anyone who'll throw a brick at a copper, truly I do.

 

[phildwyer]

I don't think it would make much difference. In and of itself. An opposition victory may have released the pressure on some of the suffocating public morality that's about it. I don't think it would be worse however.

But in a way it's irrelevent. Because the exciting, electrifying thing about this election is not the incumbents at all, it's the power and energy of ordinary Iranians

Ordinary Iranians just voted massively for the government. The people you are watching on your TV getting the shit kicked out of them by the police are not ordinary Iranians. They are the urban upper classes.

Look, I'd have voted for the opposition myself. This election result is bad news for Turkey, where I live. It will certainly increase the strength of the Islamists here, making it harder for me to get a beer on a Saturday night. And so on.

But ordinary Iranians don't care whether I can get a beer or not. They are not Westerners. Let them choose their own government.

 

[slaar]

Why does that surprise you? Iran and Venzuela have been allies for years.

The way I see this, the Western reporters in Iran only associate with the urban bourgeoisie. They never meet the ordinary people. Thus they worked themselves up to expect another "color revolution" like in the Ukraine, and now they can't accept that the Iranian people have been so impertinent as to vote against their wishes.

I always knew this would happen.

Juan Cole disagrees:

http://www.juancole.com/

Some comentators have suggested that the reason Western reporters were shocked when Ahmadinejad won was that they are based in opulent North Tehran, whereas the farmers and workers of Iran, the majority, are enthusiastic for Ahmadinejad. That is, we fell victim once again to upper middle class reporting and expectations in a working class country of the global south.

While such dynamics may have existed, this analysis is flawed in the case of Iran because it pays too much attention to class and material factors and not enough to Iranian culture wars...

So to believe that the 20% hard line support of 2001 has become 63% in 2009, we would have to posit that Iran is less urban, less literate and less interested in cultural issues today than 8 years ago. We would have to posit that the reformist camp once again boycotted the election and stayed home in droves.

No, this is not a north Tehran/ south Tehran issue. Khatami won by big margins despite being favored by north Tehran.

We have not been had by the business families of north Tehran. We've much more likely been had by a hard line constituency of at most 20% of the country, who claim to be the only true heirs of the Iranian revolution, and who control which ballots see the light of day.

 

[Corax]

Sorry, it is not a real uprising. Any more than the bourgeoisie who battered their pots and pans in the streets of Chile were a real uprising.

Turkey is not Iran Phil. You are not there, and neither are your Turkish family and friends. You cannot possibly know this.

It is a self-interested minority trying the impose their will over the popular vote, with the conspicuous support of outside interests.

Self-interested: Of course they're self-interested. They're interested in freeing themselves from a regime that forbids them to live their lives in the way they choose.

Minority: Allegedly. Although claims of a fix are premature IMO, there is legitimate concern over the way the polls were run and counted. There are reports elsewhere of ballot boxes remaining unopened, and so on.

"Outside interests", ie US, have actually been far less vocal than would be expected under Bush.

 

[phildwyer]

Juan Cole disagrees

Oddly enough I find myself unfazed by that.

Weeks ago I was telling anyone who'd listen that the election would be a landslide victory for the government. The ordinary people of Iran, and (I'm dismayed to see but cannot deny) the ordinary people of Turkey want to be ruled by conservative Islamist clerics. I don't want them to want that any more than you do, but that is most certainly what they want.