Political polling

Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by brogdale, Mar 6, 2013.

  1. weepiper

    weepiper Jock under the bed

    Where does Ashcroft have the Tories massively beating Labour in Scotland? :confused:
     
  2. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    in davidson's dreams
     
  3. weepiper

    weepiper Jock under the bed

    Ruth Davidson's actually really quite popular and if she wasn't hamstrung by Cameron and Osborne the Tories might do a lot better in Scotland.
     
  4. William of Walworth

    William of Walworth Festographer

    brogdale : Something tells me I should have checked the link myself instead of just taking another poster's word for it .... :oops:
     
    brogdale likes this.
  5. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    But then she wouldn't be a tory, would she?
     
  6. weepiper

    weepiper Jock under the bed

    danny la rouge likes this.
  7. Brixton Hatter

    Brixton Hatter Home is south London mate

    Seems to me most of the (non-Scottish) polls are registering very small changes either way for the Tories/Labour with little overall statistically significant movement of late. Does anyone know if there's somewhere which separates out the percentage of undecided voters, particularly in key marginals? What chance of the 'late deciders' having a significant effect on the overall result?
     
  8. killer b

    killer b Nostrofuckingdamus

    None of the national polls would have any kind of useful constituency level data, and there's only Ashcroft doing any significant marginal polling. All of them publish their workings if you go looking though, I think.
     
    Brixton Hatter likes this.
  9. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    The vermin are hanging onto the belief that DKs break roughly 2:1 to the incumbent. I'm not aware of any fieldwork that explores that meme.

    Smithson has been looking at the variability of DK across the pollsters and the gender gap..

    [​IMG]
     
    Brixton Hatter likes this.
  10. miktheword

    miktheword Well-Known Member


    But there is some comfort for Labour in the even smaller sub-sample of the poll that comes from battleground seats in England and Wales. These are defined as those that Labour won by no more than 10 percentage points in 2010, or the Conservatives won by no more than 15 points.

    Labour is running at 40% in these seats, which is up four points on 2010, while the Tories are on 36%, which is down two points. Some caution is needed because the sample in this case is fairly small, but this would suggest the swing to Labour is slightly stronger in these swing seats than across Britain as a whole.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics...hree-point-lead-over-labour-guardian-icm-poll
     
    Spanky Longhorn likes this.
  11. Lo Siento.

    Lo Siento. Second As Farce

    This has been the case for ages. I can't remember a constituency poll that looked good for the Tories.
     
  12. weepiper

    weepiper Jock under the bed

  13. miktheword

    miktheword Well-Known Member

     
  14. Brixton Hatter

    Brixton Hatter Home is south London mate

    Cheers, yeah this page usefully collates all the data from the various polling orbs: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

    Last few polls taken 24-26 April:

    You Gov/Sun: 12.3% undecided
    ICM/Guardian: 21% undecided
    Populus: 13% undecided
    Ashcroft: 9% undecided

    So quite a big variation in "don't know"s. Whether it's significant or not is another thing...
     
  15. miktheword

    miktheword Well-Known Member







    Or checked the link and seen that the poster was taking the word of ICM?
     
  16. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

  17. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

  18. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    exactly, he has no idea who is going to win :)

    Just watching the full Panorama programme ('kippers have a 90% chance of 0, 1 or 2), and they have made a lot of his last two American predictions, but absolutely no mention of his attempts at our last one.
     
    J Ed likes this.
  19. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    Christ, this is awful - he's just told us sometimes we need to name the local candidates to get an accurate poll! basically, it's all stuff our pollsters worked out several years ago
     
  20. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    Well his numbers say he does.

    All of the conservative parties combined come to 320. Not enough.
     
  21. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    But with a great margin of error. And 324 isn't really enough for the anti-tories either.
     
  22. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    Of course MoE etc....but 324 could be made to pass a QS.
     
  23. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    aah, then it could all come down to who they can set up as a deputy.... ;)

    More importantly, it'd be about as stable as francium
     
  24. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    Yeah, unstable alright...but this shows why our discussion about 321/323/324/326 etc. could be so important. The alternative to a QS/VoC vote is another GE.
     
  25. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    e2a : I don't think there will be a DPM. Without a coalition there's no need to make up such a non-post.
     
  26. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    actually, the right-wing parties seem to come to 316. 283 tories, 24 libs, 8 DUP, 1 kipper. Where are you getting the others from?

    e2a: The rest are: Lab 270, SNP 48, and 'Others' 16. That must be 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 alliance, 1 TUV, 1 Speaker, 1 Green, but the other two? 1 for that doctor chap, and...
     
  27. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    286 + 24 LD + 8 DUP + 1 UKIP + 1 UUP = 320
     
  28. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    aah, he's just said 283 on the programme!
     
  29. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    But even that 'grouping' makes many assumptions about minors willing to back the vermin.
     
  30. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    I could just have looked at your picture for the figures, couldn't I? :facepalm:

    His site now has a tory side on 317- 281/26/9/2/1. I bet he's got NI wrong

    And is there really any point counting the doctor bloke (who will presumably be the other independent) as likely support either side?

    Oh, and his site is only hosting the data, it's compilation is actually nothing to do with him
     

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