Political polling

Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by brogdale, Mar 6, 2013.

  1. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    Surprised the tories are as high as 30% in London tbh.
     
    William of Walworth likes this.
  2. Santino

    Santino lovelier than lovely

    I think Kantar were the company projecting 90% of over 65s to definitely vote.
     
  3. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    small swing away from them since 2017 (lab 52, tories 33 and libs 9 back then i think)
     
  4. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    Shows how miserably the libdems' tactics have been working really. If they can't make inroads in london, they've little hope elsewhere.
     
  5. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    15 isnt terrible for them, could well mean they are doing very well in a small number of seats, but falling back in the places they've no chance.
     
  6. Azrael

    Azrael circling Airstrip One

    Those outer boroughs to bump it up. They already voted Johnson twice, after all ...
     
    Poi E and ska invita like this.
  7. Azrael

    Azrael circling Airstrip One

    Yup. When Curtice was wheeled out on the Electioncast gossipfest, he noted that national polls are terrible at predicting local results. Expect the Lib Dem vote to be squeezed in the Lab / Con marginals, but their performance in Tory seats is highly unpredictable, and going by some of the constituency polls, may yet surprise.
     
  8. killer b

    killer b Minimum Waste / Maximum Joy

    While Kantar's weighting might be out somehow, the stuff everyone was getting aerated about the other week is apparently based on a misreading of the data by people who don't understand how weighting works (Aaron Bastani for the most part). This blog goes into some detail about it: Weight, Weight, Weight
     
    kabbes, cupid_stunt and Santino like this.
  9. kabbes

    kabbes "A top 400 poster"

    That makes so much more sense than the original claim that Kantar somehow were completely shite at their job.
     
  10. Santino

    Santino lovelier than lovely

    It's also not incompatible with Kantar still being shite at their job.
     
  11. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    It does. It still leaves room for some pretty big errors, though. Given the enormous gap between voting intentions of the over-65s and everyone else, weighting so that this group will see an increased turnout while all the others are reduced (even from 2017 figures that I understand are themselves disputed) is a huge call and will only skew figures one way if they get it wrong.
     
  12. killer b

    killer b Minimum Waste / Maximum Joy

    I think the implication was that Kantar were artificially keeping their Tory poll numbers high and depressing Labour poll numbers for... reasons.
     
  13. kabbes

    kabbes "A top 400 poster"

    Not so shite that they would assume turnout way out of line with all history though
     
  14. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

  15. Proper Tidy

    Proper Tidy Arsed

    How does that work? I thought they just polled people who intended to vote so where are they going?
     
  16. brogdale

    brogdale Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism

    Rounding, indeps, DKs, minor parties etc. I suppose.
     
  17. Smokeandsteam

    Smokeandsteam Well-Known Member

    Every time I think the LD vote has been fully squeezed I think back to Swinson’s interview tonight and hope it can tick down a few more points yet
     
    NoXion likes this.
  18. killer b

    killer b Minimum Waste / Maximum Joy

    Apparently comres have changed their methodology since they last polled, and the -1 for everyone is a result of this - they prompted on which parties were actually standing in the respondents seat this time round.
     
  19. cupid_stunt

    cupid_stunt Dyslexic King Cnut ... the Great.

    They changed that a few weeks ago, this poll (2-3 Dec.) compared with their last one (25-26 Nov.), has the 5 parties listed above down by 1% each, the missing 5% went elsewhere - SNP +1 & Others +4.

    Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
     
  20. Fez909

    Fez909 toilet expert

  21. Proper Tidy

    Proper Tidy Arsed

    Does this tell us much though? Seems a bit pointless. It's not asking people who they will vote for, it's what they think will happen - so a big chunk saying tory majority will be pessimistic anti-tory voters
     
  22. Fez909

    Fez909 toilet expert

    It's more the "who do you think are having a good campaign" question that bothers me. I can understand voting Tory, but I can't understand thinking they're running a good campaign...unless it is judged purely off polling figures, which is a bit self-referential.
     
    NoXion, SpookyFrank and Proper Tidy like this.
  23. killer b

    killer b Minimum Waste / Maximum Joy

    My impression is that any momentum Labour had has taken a knock in the last week, and the tories have done a great job at distracting and avoidance (assisted by a supine media) - not surprised to see this kind of movement tbh
     
  24. killer b

    killer b Minimum Waste / Maximum Joy

    'having a good campaign' and 'running a good campaign' are two different things though.
     
  25. ignatious

    ignatious Well-Known Member

    The worry would be that this sort of poll results in a bandwagon effect whereby voters want to be seen picking a winner I guess.
     
    Proper Tidy likes this.
  26. Smokeandsteam

    Smokeandsteam Well-Known Member

    Is that even a thing anymore? The political process is so degraded, the political class so bad and the populism so crass that I find that hard to believe.
     
  27. ignatious

    ignatious Well-Known Member

    I fear you credit the electorate with more nous than is currently being displayed.
     
  28. treelover

    treelover Well-Known Member

    I felt that Labour did have serious issues o n A/S and were'nt quick enough to take robust action, but the media's relentless focus on it(but not the Tories transgressions) is really probelematic and unfortunatly will feed into voters concerns about labour.
     
    MadeInBedlam likes this.
  29. MadeInBedlam

    MadeInBedlam Arm the mentally ill

    Doubt it will make fuck all difference to the election outcome tbf.
     
  30. treelover

    treelover Well-Known Member

    I think it will in the margins,

    not marginals
     

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