Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by brogdale, Mar 6, 2013.
Surprised the tories are as high as 30% in London tbh.
I think Kantar were the company projecting 90% of over 65s to definitely vote.
small swing away from them since 2017 (lab 52, tories 33 and libs 9 back then i think)
Shows how miserably the libdems' tactics have been working really. If they can't make inroads in london, they've little hope elsewhere.
15 isnt terrible for them, could well mean they are doing very well in a small number of seats, but falling back in the places they've no chance.
Those outer boroughs to bump it up. They already voted Johnson twice, after all ...
Yup. When Curtice was wheeled out on the Electioncast gossipfest, he noted that national polls are terrible at predicting local results. Expect the Lib Dem vote to be squeezed in the Lab / Con marginals, but their performance in Tory seats is highly unpredictable, and going by some of the constituency polls, may yet surprise.
While Kantar's weighting might be out somehow, the stuff everyone was getting aerated about the other week is apparently based on a misreading of the data by people who don't understand how weighting works (Aaron Bastani for the most part). This blog goes into some detail about it: Weight, Weight, Weight
That makes so much more sense than the original claim that Kantar somehow were completely shite at their job.
It's also not incompatible with Kantar still being shite at their job.
It does. It still leaves room for some pretty big errors, though. Given the enormous gap between voting intentions of the over-65s and everyone else, weighting so that this group will see an increased turnout while all the others are reduced (even from 2017 figures that I understand are themselves disputed) is a huge call and will only skew figures one way if they get it wrong.
I think the implication was that Kantar were artificially keeping their Tory poll numbers high and depressing Labour poll numbers for... reasons.
Not so shite that they would assume turnout way out of line with all history though
How does that work? I thought they just polled people who intended to vote so where are they going?
Rounding, indeps, DKs, minor parties etc. I suppose.
Every time I think the LD vote has been fully squeezed I think back to Swinson’s interview tonight and hope it can tick down a few more points yet
Apparently comres have changed their methodology since they last polled, and the -1 for everyone is a result of this - they prompted on which parties were actually standing in the respondents seat this time round.
They changed that a few weeks ago, this poll (2-3 Dec.) compared with their last one (25-26 Nov.), has the 5 parties listed above down by 1% each, the missing 5% went elsewhere - SNP +1 & Others +4.
Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
Does this tell us much though? Seems a bit pointless. It's not asking people who they will vote for, it's what they think will happen - so a big chunk saying tory majority will be pessimistic anti-tory voters
It's more the "who do you think are having a good campaign" question that bothers me. I can understand voting Tory, but I can't understand thinking they're running a good campaign...unless it is judged purely off polling figures, which is a bit self-referential.
My impression is that any momentum Labour had has taken a knock in the last week, and the tories have done a great job at distracting and avoidance (assisted by a supine media) - not surprised to see this kind of movement tbh
'having a good campaign' and 'running a good campaign' are two different things though.
The worry would be that this sort of poll results in a bandwagon effect whereby voters want to be seen picking a winner I guess.
Is that even a thing anymore? The political process is so degraded, the political class so bad and the populism so crass that I find that hard to believe.
I fear you credit the electorate with more nous than is currently being displayed.
I felt that Labour did have serious issues o n A/S and were'nt quick enough to take robust action, but the media's relentless focus on it(but not the Tories transgressions) is really probelematic and unfortunatly will feed into voters concerns about labour.
Doubt it will make fuck all difference to the election outcome tbf.
I think it will in the margins,
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