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Oil Companies clean up: big profits.

Oh well, let's get this over with. What's it going to be, Soon, Baliunas, Jaworowski or McIntyre and McKitrick?

pbman's already c&p'd that lot to death and it didn't get him anyplace.
 
I'm certainly not going to do anything about it at this time of night. Make your assertions bigfish, and if you've got anything to say that pbman hasn't said already then I'll go through this weary process again if I really must.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
So how would the individual citizens of the developed world go about reducing their consumption of fossil fuels? I think this is an interesting question, so I've thought about it a bit. How does our consumption of fossil fuels break down? What actions would bring about a significant reduction in our individual fossil fuel consumption, enough to be sustainable? I'm only sketching a few basic ideas out below as starter, but I think some potential problems of putting all responsibility onto the individual and leaving corporations and governments totally out of the equation will quickly start to become apparent if we're talking about making a real difference rather than a few cosmetic gestures.

1) Food. Approximately 10 units of oil energy for one unit of food energy in the US and UK. Action ideas: radically reduce distance travelled by food and replace most of the oil energy used on the farm by human and animal labour. This might involve both Cuban-style urban agriculture ideas and a change in settlement patterns in order to faciliate a large scale move into eco-villages.

2) Housing. Embodied energy cost of the infrastructure, not just the buildings but stuff like sewage systems. Heating and power. Action ideas: replace or renovate housing stock with much better insulation and sustainable and/or high efficiency systems like local CHP, solar and wind. Replace all present toilets with source separating models and rearrange settlement patterns to permit nutrient recycling and local food production around those settlements.

3) Transport. Industrial processes to construct the infrastructure, for building the cars, trains, planes etc and fuel for running them on. Action ideas: reduce distances travelled to work to walking distance, reduce distances all goods are transported. Reduce air travel to an absolute minimum. Canals and sailing ships are both very sustainable, trains are more efficient than trucks.

4) Consumer goods. For example anything made of plastic, or anything which requires oil energy to produce. Action ideas: reduce as far as possible consumption of plastics and other fossil fuel products. Stop using disposable/non-recyclable products. Build much higher quality products that last for generations instead of cheap shoddy ones that require regular replacement. Use local materials that can be worked with hand tools wherever possible.

5) State. For example, our share in the fossil fuel consumption of the military etc. Action ideas: reduce as far as possible military and other state systems to what is necessary for the common good as opposed to power projection on behalf of corporate interests. No expeditionary forces. No nuclear weapons production (fantastically energy intensive) We did a thread about what a ethical/green defence policy might turn out like in practice a few weeks ago which had a lot of good ideas provided by our military chums.

So, assuming for the moment that's the kind of thing that people in a developed country might require in order to reduce their energy use to genuinely sustainable levels. How might we go about achieving any of it? Will corporations and so on see any of that stuff as a threat to their profitability?

Point 1. You want to go back to an agrarian society? You want to make food production a labor intensive business? The price of food will skyrocket. Land owners must pay all these people to toil in the fields, not exactly an efficient way to produce such commodities as corn and soybeans.

Point 2. I do believe we need to find alternative sources of energy like solar, hydrogen and wind. But replace all toilets? :) Imagine the expense and energy such an endeavor would need. The rest of point 2 is strange, I'm not sure what to think about it.

Point 3. Do you want the government to mandate your ideas set forth in point 3. Should governments force citizens to walk to work? Can a Sweedish furniture company export its goods to Brazil by flyiing them in? Reduce air travel to an absolute minimum? Who decides that? If I own a small business and get an order from a factory in Japan to ship industrial machinery for a nuclear power plant in 48 hours, is that still possible? If I want to fly to London from Minneapolis next week is that still possible? Or is that not keeping airline trave to an "absolute minimum"?

Point 4. No comment

Point 5. Point 5 is like the rest. It just sit around talk. It has no translation to the real world we live in.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
I'm certainly not going to do anything about it at this time of night. Make your assertions bigfish, and if you've got anything to say that pbman hasn't said already then I'll go through this weary process again if I really must.

Answer the questions tomorrow Bernie after you've had a good nights rest... oh, and leave the tar brush under the bed, will you.
 
The land is bound to vomit mankind from it: the earth is reeling back and forth, ready to spue more, all because the rulers of the people do not give a sabbath year. The Bible says the land is not to be sold for ever, and that we should not oppress one another, and how to release the bonds of debts.

Good thing there is plenty of pure gold and true riches, which they know not of.
 
RhymnRzn said:
The land is bound to vomit mankind from it: the earth is reeling back and forth, ready to spue more, all because the rulers of the people do not give a sabbath year. The Bible says the land is not to be sold for ever, and that we should not oppress one another, and how to release the bonds of debts.

Good thing there is plenty of pure gold and true riches, which they know not of.



Good point
 
bigfish said:
I was wondering, you don't happen to have the annual figure for natural CO2 atmospheric emissions handy so we might evaluate anthropomorphic (man-made) CO2 emission volumes alongside natural emissions, do you?

Also, I was wondering if you think that the Sun might play any part in this at all? Or do you think the Sun just revolves at the center of the solar system radiating heat upon the Earth across eons of time in a fixed or constant manner?
OK, look. If I hear someone demanding that I answer questions about inter-species evolution and transitionary fossils, I know that I'm dealing with certain all-too-familiar creationist arguments.

When someone starts demanding that I answer the questions you pose above, I'm fairly sure that I'm dealing with someone who is using the arguments of e.g. Soon, Balunias and/or some of those other people I listed above, or has encountered them via some popular source like Michael Creighton. I've already covered those arguments at extensive length on other threads in response to pbman introducing them: In particular on the thread linked below, which took me days of work, I am not going to do all of that stuff all over again for your amusement bigfish. Not without a good reason.

Do you Believe in Global Warming?
 
mears said:
Point 1. You want to go back to an agrarian society? You want to make food production a labor intensive business? The price of food will skyrocket. Land owners must pay all these people to toil in the fields, not exactly an efficient way to produce such commodities as corn and soybeans.<snip>
Well, you were suggesting, if I understood you correctly that your proposed solution to oil-related sustainability problems was nothing to do with corporations or governments, but was entirely the responsibility of concerned citizens. I then did a quick review of the way that an individual contributes to fossil fuel consumption and sketched out some ideas for how to reduce it in line with sustainability.

Let's take point 1) and I'll sort of touch on the bits of points 2) & 3) which you're asking about in the process. Let me know if you want more on those.

I certainly don't want to become a subsistence farmer, but one of the places that a great deal of that oil goes is into our food systems. So if you want to make a big difference as an individual to that process, there is only so far you can go without changing the underlying process. For example, you can make a choice to only eat organic-certified food. That means that the oil used to make the pesticide and fertiliser is removed. It doesn't do much about farm machinery, but that's relatively minor compared to the industrial costs of fertiliser/pesticide production and all the stuff that happens between the food leaving the farm gate and ending up on the table. Right now though, organic food is sold at a large premium, so that choice is only available to those who can afford it, not to the general mass of the population, although concerns about food safety are widespread here and many more people probably would switch to organic if they could afford to. You can also decide to consume only locally produced food purchased from farm shops or farmer's markets. That cuts out a big chunk of oil use between the farm gate and the supermarket shelf. Again that requires that you live somewhere where this choice is feasible. For it to be a choice everybody can make, that requires some kind of change in agriculture or in settlement patterns or in both, that results in sufficient food being grown within walking distance of everybody, for everybody to have that choice.

You can also, as many UK citizens choose to do, get an allotment. That's about 300 sq yrds, available for a rent of around £20 per annum from most local authorities, that you can use to grow some of your food. Again though, while where I live an allotment is fairly easy to come by, if you live in Central London say there is (or so I understand) a waiting several list years long for one. Of course if you've got enough money (say half a million or so) and spare time, you can have a kitchen garden even in Central London. Again though it's a matter of where you live and/or how much money you have.

There is also a further issue regarding imported foods. They generally have very high energy costs. E.g. a Kenyan mango requires 1000 units of oil energy to deliver one unit of food energy (I may have missed out a zero or two) This leads to the question of land use. The UK has a population of 60 million and about 60 million acres of land total, with something like 25% or so being arable land. This raises some interesting questions about how one reduces food imports. Taking the limit case of no imports of food or energy and working backwards, assuming standard organic farming and EU levels of energy use supported by a mix of technologies that includes biomass and other land-intensive sustainable energy sources, you'd need about, 7.45 acres each (based on figures derived from Pimentel "Food, Energy and Society") That clearly isn't workable, but you can improve the yield per acre considerably by moving to labour intensive market gardening methods, rather than standard organic agriculture methods. Similarly you can probably reduce that biomass energy use significantly by other methods, such as the ones I was describing above. So big improvements are at least possible in principle, assuming you can find political and/or economic ways to make them happen. All an individual household can really do though, is move to a smallholding and that's only really an option for people with a few hundred thousand pounds of capital and some way of earning a living beyond basic subsistence farming.

Your point about the labour cost of food production is quite correct, under present market conditions. However, depending on overall trends in oil prices that might start to change. If we are discussing trying to remove oil as far as possible from our food systems, a reasonable thought-experiment is to take a look at Cuba during the Special Period (ie after the collapse of the Soviet Union created a situation where they suddenly stopped getting heavily subsidised oil and fertiliser/pesticides) see e.g. this this and this The Cubans had no choice but to find ways of doing without these things (at least in the quantities they'd previously used) or starve, the stuff they came up with is extremely interesting, combining state action (providing land, seeds, tools, scientists, education and publicity), urban horticulture and local market principles in some very ingenious ways. Now, anyone who has been there can tell you that the Cubans didn't enjoy this a bit, and nobody would want to go through that experience by choice. It still provides a very interesting study in where the impacts of radically reduced oil consumption fall and how a people who had to come to terms with it managed to.

There are some aspects of this kind of stuff that are not immediately obvious, because they involve second order effects. That's where the thing about source-separating toilets comes in. If you want to maintain production levels, while removing industrial fertilisers from the picture, then our current sewage systems might have to change, because we'd want to locally recycle every bit of nutrient we could, rather than spending a lot of oil energy industrially producing fertiliser, then flushing most of the nutrients out to sea as we do now. If you want the nutrient recycling to be efficient then you can remove the energy cost of separating sterile urine from non-sterile feces by not mixing them in the first place, then recycling both locally along with animal manures and plant residues, to use the results to grow food locally, hence the stuff about settlement patterns and source-separating toilets.

It's also not just about oil. Other second order effects of industrial agriculture relevant to sustainability include soil erosion and the loss of ecosystem services that goes along with the loss of biodiversity. e.g. pollinating insects.

Now, I'm not proposing that one has to immediately do *all* of the stuff on the lists of actions that I suggested above. What I was up to was illustrating the kind of stuff that one might be talking about, in order to make sustainable choices available to majority of the population in someplace like the UK. In part because I think it's always useful to discuss that stuff as widely as possible and in part to show how anything beyond gestures by a few middle-class hippies, certainly anything that would make a significant overall impact, is likely to require substantial changes in the way our society works. Interestingly there are some indications of a trend in this direction, see e.g. Who's organic in the UK? but at present that trend, in line with the emphasis on consumer choice, is mostly driven by members of the middle-classes who can afford to make sustainable choices about certain aspects of their lifestyle.
 
scott_forester said:
As well as the people who buy their products?
Well that's the tricky part isn't it. For example, suppose you don't want to drive a car? How available is that choice, if you can only afford to live someplace where there are no jobs within walking distance and no effective public transport?

This is the sort of thing I was on about above. Putting the onus on the individual rather than admitting that corporations and governments are also involved is a nice get-out for corporations and governments, but it ignores the lack of sustainable choices provided by our society and the lack of effective avenues for influencing those corporations and governments in the direction of sustainability.

Most of the options for sustainability require the deployment of various kinds of capital, which means they aren't available to regular citizens because the bulk of the deployable capital required is under the control of corporations and governments, rather than of ordinary citizens. That might be OK if those governments and corporations were responsive to sustainability issues, but they mostly aren't, except when it becomes a matter of their own survival.
 
mears said:
I really can't, what does that mean?

Your own words?

I'm not playing your game.

No-one else appears to have had any trouble deciphering my meaning, which leads me to the conclusion that you are either:
1) Stupid
or
2) Attempting a manouvre that will allow you to either derail the thread or nitpick.

Either way you can whistle for it.
 
ViolentPanda said:
I'm not playing your game.

No-one else appears to have had any trouble deciphering my meaning, which leads me to the conclusion that you are either:
1) Stupid
or
2) Attempting a manouvre that will allow you to either derail the thread or nitpick.

Either way you can whistle for it.
There's a lot of it about. See e.g. bigfish's demands for answers to his questions above.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
There's a lot of it about. See e.g. bigfish's demands for answers to his questions above.

The way that these demands occur do sometimes appear to be deliberate derail/stall tactics rather than legitimate requests for information.

Hey, if more people than just mears had asked me to elucidate, then I would have done so despite the structural simplicity of the phrase in question. However, as only mears appeared puzzled, befuddled or otherwise unable to fathom the meaning, then I believe it is safe to presume that he is/was "trying it on".
 
Wheras, some of the questions mears was asking me above at least appeared to reflect interest in the answers, so I put several hours work in and I gave him a fairly comprehensive reply.
 
Jo/Joe said:
What like Rupert Murcdoch you mean? Idiot.

No you and the rest of urban. :rolleyes:

"evil oil companies want chap oil" is all i heard.

And it was the stupidest thing i ever heard.............
 
Bernie Gunther said:
[...] they aren't available to regular citizens because the bulk of the deployable capital required is under the control of corporations and governments, rather than of ordinary citizens. [...]

How many Green MPs are there? Isn't this the issue? Governments aren't complex things they react to whatever the majority tell them they care about through polls and such.

The truth is that the populace don't care enough to make it an issue.
 
ViolentPanda said:
I'm not playing your game.

No-one else appears to have had any trouble deciphering my meaning, which leads me to the conclusion that you are either:
1) Stupid
or
2) Attempting a manouvre that will allow you to either derail the thread or nitpick.

Either way you can whistle for it.

In the future you should:

1. tell when you are using another's words and

2. Understand what you are copying.
 
scott_forester said:
How many Green MPs are there? Isn't this the issue? Governments aren't complex things they react to whatever the majority tell them they care about through polls and such.

The truth is that the populace don't care enough to make it an issue.
The Greens would certainly have a bunch of MPs under proportional representation. That's clear from their performance anytime they enter an election where PR is a component. The Greens are a tiny party with a tiny budget compared to the big three, but they do pretty well considering that. (That's not to say I think getting Green MP's elected would do much good.)

Here's a BBC report based on polling that discusses public attitudes to climate change. I think the support for action is greater than you suggest, but less than I'd like to see. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3934363.stm

One of the main points to emerge from the poll is that most people don't think that it'll have much effect on the UK or on them personally. There's a certain amount of truth to that, given that most of the really bad things likely to happen soon are likely to happen to people nearer to the equator and most of the very bad stuff that's likely to happen in the UK is probably decades away.

One of the interesting aspects of the poll is that over 80% of the people who responded said they'd be willing to change how they lived, however those figures dropped dramatically when they were asked if they'd pay more to fly or to buy petrol. I think that's substantially in line with what I was saying above about sustainability concerns being a luxury that generally only the middle classes can afford, under our current economic and political system. It does however, suggest strongly that if the majority could afford to do something effective, they would.

This of course disguises the fact that individual action doesn't really do much and that most of the real contributors are big structural things that individuals can't really do much about, as per the longer posts I did above. Information about climate change and the broader issues of sustainability in general and their relationship to that structural stuff is a big part of the issue here.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
Here is last year's Organic Food and Farming report.

http://www.soilassociation.org/web/sa/saweb.nsf/librarytitles/1B316.html

As you can see, again there is a strong groundswell of support for sustainable food (although I think a lot of that support is driven by food safety issues)

I'd love to see the way food is produced change but when Iceland only sold 100% organic veg. it was an expensive failure. Polls are one thing, not getting all your food at Tesco's in another.
 
scott_forester said:
I'd love to see the way food is produced change but when Iceland only sold 100% organic veg. it was an expensive failure. Polls are one thing, not getting all your food at Tesco's in another.
Yes, that's precisely my point. Right now, sustainable shopping isn't an affordable choice for the average citizen, even though clearly most wish that it was.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
Yes, that's precisely my point. Right now, sustainable shopping isn't an affordable choice for the average citizen, even though clearly most wish that it was.

Iceland didn't put their prices up when they only sold organic, people just couldn't be arsed to go there, most consumers are just lazy bastards.

I've never understood why environmental pressure groups didn't focus on food miles? I swear if you can save a dolphin surely isn't that hard to get supermarkets to stop selling insipid shite and shipping it 100s of miles to boot.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
Well, you were suggesting, if I understood you correctly that your proposed solution to oil-related sustainability problems was nothing to do with corporations or governments, but was entirely the responsibility of concerned citizens. I then did a quick review of the way that an individual contributes to fossil fuel consumption and sketched out some ideas for how to reduce it in line with sustainability.

Let's take point 1) and I'll sort of touch on the bits of points 2) & 3) which you're asking about in the process. Let me know if you want more on those.

I certainly don't want to become a subsistence farmer, but one of the places that a great deal of that oil goes is into our food systems. So if you want to make a big difference as an individual to that process, there is only so far you can go without changing the underlying process. For example, you can make a choice to only eat organic-certified food. That means that the oil used to make the pesticide and fertiliser is removed. It doesn't do much about farm machinery, but that's relatively minor compared to the industrial costs of fertiliser/pesticide production and all the stuff that happens between the food leaving the farm gate and ending up on the table. Right now though, organic food is sold at a large premium, so that choice is only available to those who can afford it, not to the general mass of the population, although concerns about food safety are widespread here and many more people probably would switch to organic if they could afford to. You can also decide to consume only locally produced food purchased from farm shops or farmer's markets. That cuts out a big chunk of oil use between the farm gate and the supermarket shelf. Again that requires that you live somewhere where this choice is feasible. For it to be a choice everybody can make, that requires some kind of change in agriculture or in settlement patterns or in both, that results in sufficient food being grown within walking distance of everybody, for everybody to have that choice.

You can also, as many UK citizens choose to do, get an allotment. That's about 300 sq yrds, available for a rent of around £20 per annum from most local authorities, that you can use to grow some of your food. Again though, while where I live an allotment is fairly easy to come by, if you live in Central London say there is (or so I understand) a waiting several list years long for one. Of course if you've got enough money (say half a million or so) and spare time, you can have a kitchen garden even in Central London. Again though it's a matter of where you live and/or how much money you have.

There is also a further issue regarding imported foods. They generally have very high energy costs. E.g. a Kenyan mango requires 1000 units of oil energy to deliver one unit of food energy (I may have missed out a zero or two) This leads to the question of land use. The UK has a population of 60 million and about 60 million acres of land total, with something like 25% or so being arable land. This raises some interesting questions about how one reduces food imports. Taking the limit case of no imports of food or energy and working backwards, assuming standard organic farming and EU levels of energy use supported by a mix of technologies that includes biomass and other land-intensive sustainable energy sources, you'd need about, 7.45 acres each (based on figures derived from Pimentel "Food, Energy and Society") That clearly isn't workable, but you can improve the yield per acre considerably by moving to labour intensive market gardening methods, rather than standard organic agriculture methods. Similarly you can probably reduce that biomass energy use significantly by other methods, such as the ones I was describing above. So big improvements are at least possible in principle, assuming you can find political and/or economic ways to make them happen. All an individual household can really do though, is move to a smallholding and that's only really an option for people with a few hundred thousand pounds of capital and some way of earning a living beyond basic subsistence farming.

Your point about the labour cost of food production is quite correct, under present market conditions. However, depending on overall trends in oil prices that might start to change. If we are discussing trying to remove oil as far as possible from our food systems, a reasonable thought-experiment is to take a look at Cuba during the Special Period (ie after the collapse of the Soviet Union created a situation where they suddenly stopped getting heavily subsidised oil and fertiliser/pesticides) see e.g. this this and this The Cubans had no choice but to find ways of doing without these things (at least in the quantities they'd previously used) or starve, the stuff they came up with is extremely interesting, combining state action (providing land, seeds, tools, scientists, education and publicity), urban horticulture and local market principles in some very ingenious ways. Now, anyone who has been there can tell you that the Cubans didn't enjoy this a bit, and nobody would want to go through that experience by choice. It still provides a very interesting study in where the impacts of radically reduced oil consumption fall and how a people who had to come to terms with it managed to.

There are some aspects of this kind of stuff that are not immediately obvious, because they involve second order effects. That's where the thing about source-separating toilets comes in. If you want to maintain production levels, while removing industrial fertilisers from the picture, then our current sewage systems might have to change, because we'd want to locally recycle every bit of nutrient we could, rather than spending a lot of oil energy industrially producing fertiliser, then flushing most of the nutrients out to sea as we do now. If you want the nutrient recycling to be efficient then you can remove the energy cost of separating sterile urine from non-sterile feces by not mixing them in the first place, then recycling both locally along with animal manures and plant residues, to use the results to grow food locally, hence the stuff about settlement patterns and source-separating toilets.

It's also not just about oil. Other second order effects of industrial agriculture relevant to sustainability include soil erosion and the loss of ecosystem services that goes along with the loss of biodiversity. e.g. pollinating insects.

Now, I'm not proposing that one has to immediately do *all* of the stuff on the lists of actions that I suggested above. What I was up to was illustrating the kind of stuff that one might be talking about, in order to make sustainable choices available to majority of the population in someplace like the UK. In part because I think it's always useful to discuss that stuff as widely as possible and in part to show how anything beyond gestures by a few middle-class hippies, certainly anything that would make a significant overall impact, is likely to require substantial changes in the way our society works. Interestingly there are some indications of a trend in this direction, see e.g. Who's organic in the UK? but at present that trend, in line with the emphasis on consumer choice, is mostly driven by members of the middle-classes who can afford to make sustainable choices about certain aspects of their lifestyle.

Thanks for the reply. You know a lot more than I do about sustainable agriculture. If countries have the arable land I think its good to promote individulal or family plots to grow vegtables, fruit, nuts or whatever you can in the environment you live in. This does happen in the states but I don't know any of the numbers. I am sure they are pretty small.

I know some things on the business end of agriculture. I worked in the corn futures pit at the Chicago Board of Trade. I also have part ownership in a family farm in Ohio.

High oil prices are hurting western famers. American farmers have a huge lobbying outift in Washington and American farmers are subsidised for each acre in production. Subsidising each acre brings more supply to the market, further depressing prices which means more money from Washington. Its an evil circle. Emergency releif to drought stricken areas of North and South Dakota means the US government encourages planting crops not sustainable to the environment.

The same goodies are of course doled out by the EU.

If US and Europe wants to work on something constructive they should bring down their agricultural subsidies together.
 
Johnny Canuck2 said:
I don't know what it's like in Oklahoma, but the pumps in Alberta and Montana appear to be rust-free and working fine.

They are far different here, they are very old fields.

Pre-war most of them.

The over produced them, during WW2.....
 
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