Obama or Mc'cain

[ymu]

you should be, unless the Bradley/Wilfer effect comes into play big-time

Ooh thanks for that - much more useful than "shy tory". I found some real data in the wiki entry.

Some analysts have dismissed the theory of the Bradley effect,[9] while others argue that it may have existed in past elections, but not in more recent ones. One analysis of 133 senate and gubernatorial elections between 1989 and 2006 suggests that "before 1996, the median gap for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points."

That bodes well for Obama - he's 15% ahead in enough states to win it outright before the swingier states are counted. The "Bradley Gap" would have to be much larger than these studies suggest for McCain to win.

There's another unquanitifiable in the Muslim "smears" and the terminal gullibility of the US voter, but 15% is a lot of gappage to make up if the typical effect size is only aound 3%.

 

[ymu]

no, that was in response to what you were asking me about on the Israel thread....as in the conspiracy and funding questions.

Oh good grief again.

The Bradley/Wilder/Shy Tory effect is a well known and much observed phenomenon in election polling, possibly due to social acceptability bias. And you're comparing this with your Elders of Zion-esque claims about Jews controlling US politics?

Where to start ...

 

[andy2002]

I have a tenner on McCain (at 7-1 I'd have been a fool not to) but I sincerely hope Obama wins.

 

[Treacle Toes]

I have a tenner on McCain (at 7-1 I'd have been a fool not to) but I sincerely hope Obama wins.

Why?

 

[andy2002]

Why?

I have no illusions about Obama being a great President – I think his more liberal fans will be very disappointed in him inside six months. However, if I had a vote he'd get mine simply because McCain and especially Palin are too repulsive to countenance in power. In fact, until Palin entered the race I'd probably have given my (pretend) vote to Nader/Gonzalez or another left-wing/socialist candidate.

 

[Treacle Toes]

Obama's Mother is a white American, Father, black Kenyan, so what's all this crap about race then?

Perhaps because deep down, some people are still not comfortable with racial mixing.

 

[Treacle Toes]

I have no illusions about Obama being a great President – I think his more liberal fans will be very disappointed in him inside six months. .

If he gets in I think there is a massive burden of expectation on Obama for reasons other than his party policies etc. I wish him well but it isn't going to be easy to implement the changes he 'wants' to.

 

[andy2002]

If he gets in I think there is a massive burden of expectation on Obama for reasons other than his party policies etc. I wish him well but it isn't going to be easy to implement the changes he 'wants' to.

Quite. He's inheriting an economy that is about as fucked as fucked can be. It will be interesting to see just how much he can do with those kind of limitations in place. I suspect he's going to be saying "Sorry, but we can't afford that" an awful lot.

 

[Detroit City]

Oh good grief again.

The Bradley/Wilder/Shy Tory effect is a well known and much observed phenomenon in election polling, possibly due to social acceptability bias. And you're comparing this with your Elders of Zion-esque claims about Jews controlling US politics?

Where to start ...

 

[nino_savatte]

Hope Obama wins for the obvious reasons but also to piss Mad Mel Philips off,fuck me shes really lost the plot over him
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/

Anyone who pisses her off is okay in my books.

 

[nino_savatte]

Obama's Mother is a white American, Father, black Kenyan, so what's all this crap about race then?

Here's another issue: Obama doesn't carry the baggage of slavery as do other African-Americans who are the descendants of slaves.

 

[CharlieAddict]

to the OP - Obama is mixed race - if he's as black then so is theo walcott and lewis hamilton.

obama has grown on me.
still don't agree on his foreign policy though...

mcCain's face scares me.
half of it is bubbly and the other half is smooth.
kinda too freaky,.

 

[ymu]

Quite. He's inheriting an economy that is about as fucked as fucked can be. It will be interesting to see just how much he can do with those kind of limitations in place. I suspect he's going to be saying "Sorry, but we can't afford that" an awful lot.

Aye.

But then Roosevelt took over in 1933 and won three terms off the back of the New Deal, and it's New Deal-esque reform that most Americans clearly want right now.

But then again, Roosevelt wasn't elected whilst the shit was still hitting the fan. I don't know enough about the era to judge how much events from 1929-1932 changed the situation, or whether Roosevelt could have done it had he been elected in 1928.

Congress and Senate are set for a Democrat landslide so if he has the guts to do it, there will be the stomach for quite radical (yet ultimately conservative) reform. There's also the backlash from the right to consider. As before, Europe is threatening to turn fascist in the face of economic collapse - but what will the right in the US do? What form will the right in the US take now that the Bush-Cheney crowd have been so thoroughly discredited?

Interesting, and scary, times.

 

[joevsimp]

Hope Obama wins for the obvious reasons but also to piss Mad Mel Philips off,fuck me shes really lost the plot over him
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/

what planet does she live on, Gordon Brown goes to Saudi to ask for some cash for the IMF and this apparantly means "The Islamisation of the west is proceeding according to plan"


also regarding my earlier comments about the bradley effect and it being possible for McCain to drum up the racists, I don't think this will happen, if McCain was going to play the race card in a serious way he'd have done it by now, but he seems to me to be better than that.

 

[ymu]

The Bradley effect isn't about racists being "drummed up" - it's about polls being misleading because of voters lying to pollsters about their intentions, presumably because they do not want to be viewed as racists.

And McCain has been playing the race card, albeit mostly via Palin and Fox - have you not heard the "Osama-err-Obama", "He's a Muslim", "Terrorist - kill him!" stuff?

 

[embree]

Just think how many americans believe that Obama is a muslim, or how many think he has an islamic agenda or a 'black' agenda. The Mc'cain PR people have portrayed him as a terrorist. I'll be surprised if he gets 40% of the vote

Oh come on. I'm deeply suspicious of the Republican talent for stealing elections which is why Obama needs a landslide to be sure of winning the Presidency but failing to break 40% of the vote? That would be a disaster on the scale of Walter Mondale's defeat in 1984 and simply is not going to happen. The Bradley Effect, which is where people say they will vote for the black candidate and then break for the white one at the last minute, would have to be enormous for the polls to be so badly wrong.

Obama will hold every single state that Kerry won in 2004 - Pennsylvania may be closer than the polls suggest but he will hang on to it. He will add Iowa, Colorado and Virginia to these which will give him the White House even if McCain takes every other swing state.

In Obama's absolute best case scenario, he'll win North Carolina,Missouri, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio & Florida with maybe even Montana, North Dakota, Georgia and - fuck me - even McCain's own Arizona going for him. Some of these are extraordinary to even think about him winning but recent polls have shown them going from decentish McCain leads to within the margin of error - ie toss up territory.

McCain's best case scenario sees him having to win every state currently rated as a toss up, every state which is currently leaning slightly to Obama and then still having to take Pennsylvania (a more volatile state than Iowa) to get in.

Polls can be wrong - but they're not so wrong that I can see any hope for McCain other than by a narrow defeat in the popular vote and being handed the White House by legal chicanery.

Example of how well Obama is doing - he is estimated to be a quarter of a million votes ahead amongst those who have voted early in North Carolina. Yes, those who intend to vote on the day show a majority for McCain but how many of those will actually get out and vote? If they do, it will be so, so close. If they don't (and bad weather is forecast for the NC coast on polling day) then Obama takes NC with something to spare.

I'll stick my neck out and say Obama will win. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a landslide in order for him to be able to claim a massive mandate. A McCain win is possible but recedes every time another poll is published showing Obama ahead - which he has been since September.

 

[joevsimp]

I'll stick my neck out and say Obama will win. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a landslide in order for him to be able to claim a massive mandate. A McCain win is possible but recedes every time another poll is published showing Obama ahead - which he has been since September.

yep, been playing around on www.270towin.com and it's quite easy to construct a map with a huge landslide and their simulation gadget is showing something rediculous like 1.5% for McCains chance of the win

 

[embree]

The Dems have to make damn certain they get the vote out but as long as they do then the only way McCain will win is by the polls being seriously wrong. All of the polls.

The Senate's looking good too - Dole's seven points down in the NC senatorial race

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is great and the guy has a reputation for being very accurate indeed, as he showed in the primaries

 

[bonjour]

to the OP - Obama is mixed race - if he's as black then so is theo walcott and lewis hamilton.

But is that what the average american sees? Do they look at his dark skin tone and think "he's mixed race", I think the way it'll come across is that, he's not white. So therefore he must be black.

Oh come on. I'm deeply suspicious of the Republican talent for stealing elections which is why Obama needs a landslide to be sure of winning the Presidency but failing to break 40% of the vote?

I think this election isn't going to be 49/51 or thereabouts, because how much more suspicious would that be? Obama losing by a fraction of the votes?! If the republicans have any intellect they'll make it look like it was a clear victory for Mc'cain, drowning the criticism of the validity of these elections with mass media propaganda, probably about a new great age for America.

 

[Belushi]

But is that what the average american sees? Do they look at his dark skin tone and think "he's mixed race", I think the way it'll come across is that, he's not white. So therefore he must be black.

Obama describes himself as black, for very good cultural and historic reasons.

 

[bonjour]

(OffTopic-ish) - Has Obama addressed the people that won't vote for him because he's black?

 

[Belushi]

(OffTopic-ish) - Has Obama addressed the people that won't vote for him because he's black?

I dont think so - I'd keep well away from that can of worms in his position.

 

[danny la rouge]

Obama will win. He will win because too few people saw the terrorist hand jab, and therefore only a small minority know his true intentions.

 

[bonjour]

I dont think so - I'd keep well away from that can of worms in his position.

Why do you say that?

 

[Belushi]

Why do you say that?

Because the GOP attack dogs will immediately spin it as Obama accusing whites of racism.

 

[ymu]

(OffTopic-ish) - Has Obama addressed the people that won't vote for him because he's black?

Yes.

 

[embree]

I think this election isn't going to be 49/51 or thereabouts, because how much more suspicious would that be? Obama losing by a fraction of the votes?! If the republicans have any intellect they'll make it look like it was a clear victory for Mc'cain, drowning the criticism of the validity of these elections with mass media propaganda, probably about a new great age for America.

I can't believe I'm answering this nonsense but...

if McCain were to win handsomely after trailing in the polls for 12 weeks, that would be a damn sight more suspicious than a narrow 'comeback' win. The Republicans can fix elections well but they can't do it if there's a tidal wave of early voting by African-American, Latino, young and working class voters to destroy their hopes of denying people their rights on election day. And that's what is happening.

Sure they can fix votes in Florida, Ohio and NC. But can they do it in Virginia & Iowa (where Obama is yards ahead), not to mention Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico etc etc?

Nope, Obama will win and win handsomely.

 

[Rainingstairs]

Who will win and why?

I think Mc'cain because I think there is alot more prejeduced Americans than not. A black president? The idea is so absurd that it features in a fictional tv show (24).

I hope I'm wrong.

For whatever reason you think what you think...it all seems superficial and flawed. How much could you have possibly read up and researched on this election when you can't even spell McCain?

 

[embree]

btw, I'm qualifying my predictions by saying that there seem to be a number of undecided voters at this late stage, in some states a greater number than the difference between the candidates.

however, I'm assuming these will largely either break fairly evenly or not turn up at all. I don't think McCain's going to claim three quarters of the undecideds over the next 24 hours

 

[embree]

Been poking around a few sites this afternoon and it seems to me that there could even be a case of undecided voters going to Obama on the basis that he's going to win and wanting to be a part of it. Even a reverse Bradley Effect - there seems to be a fair bit of anecdotal evidence that some Republicans and independents are intending to vote for Obama but aren't admitting it to their friends, neighbours or maybe even pollsters.