Numbers on Trident/Iran/Iraq demo

[Fullyplumped]

If you put the case in a way that didn't sneer at people, acknowledged the value of marches as an introduction to politics (they were for me back in the late 80's and the anti-war marches have been for people I know) and actually talked about other things people could get involved with, then I'd be in complete agreement with you.

Lose the shitty attitude, basically.

I completely agree. I remember in my late teens and early twenties taking part in big marches against Trident and Cruise and Unemployment in London and Liverpool and Faslane and elsewhere. I am not sure whether I thought we were going to stop these things but the days out were fun and exciting. There was the feeling of anticipation of the day, and of being part of a big movement of people, there was seeing the city and walking down the streets like we owned them, and most of all - the absolute most important thing - there was the journey there and the journey back. That was where we talked politics - on the bus.

25 years or so on, most of us (including most of the trots and anarchists of the time) are settled, respectable, bureaucrats or wage-slaves or (in some cases) honourable members. But we thought we had a chance to change the world. Well many of us did, though not in the way we imagined at the time!

Sick Anchor - marches may or may not do what the marchers would like to see happen but they are definitely wotrth the effort.

 

[rocketman]

Do they? Do you actually have any reliable evidence of this then? .

I've seen police used politically in the past. I have no reason to assume they are not sometimes used in that way in the present. Prove to me that there is a reason to regard their estimates as accurate.

PS: No personal beef, by the way.

 

[chilango]

If photos of the demonstration are examined it will be noticed that the vast
majority of demonstrators are not carrying placards. Yet, Stop the War
distributed 3000, CND 2000, BMI 500 and other affiliates several thousand.

spot the swps?

 

[Groucho]

The Square was pretty packed with demonstrators as were all the pubs around Whitehall while the end of the demo was still leaving Hyde Park.

Not sure how many that makes it, but many more than 10,000.

 

[audiotech]

......

 

[Irenick]

They're not. But no-one will believe that.

A bit like the boy that cried wolf; for the umpteenth time...

 

[Irenick]

Cops estimates are political. They "stopped" counting the big Iraq war demo at "at least 750,000" (why?), but doubled the Countryside March's own estimates of their hunting demo.

Yeh, ironic innit. 2,000,000 of us marched for peace on 16 February, 2003; and the Bill corralled us in a funnel of barriers along Whitehall. The countryside alliance, a group of unashamedly bloodthirsty violent killers (when they ain’t plucking the fuck out of a banjo) were allowed to march along the entire width of Whitehall.

 

[JHE]

The countryside alliance, a group of unashamedly bloodthirsty violent killers (when they ain’t plucking the fuck out of a banjo)...

Oh, gawd, another fox-loving nutjob...

 

[JHE]

I'm a fully paid-up member of the Suburban Alliance. The keen gardeners among our membership would gladly machine gun the cunning, thieving predatory bastards.

Me, I'm a moderate: I'd just kill the foxes.

 

[cockneyrebel]

detective boy what are you talking about?

As someone said, only a fucking idiot would say there were 10,000 people on that demo. I'd say around 60,000. But whatever figure it is, it was clearly hugely more than 10,000.

So even if you accept your ridiculous assertion that the police aren't political in these kinda things (what a joke), are you saying that they are that thick/incompetent that they could get it that far out?

 

[justuname]

detective boy what are you talking about?

As someone said, only a fucking idiot would say there were 10,000 people on that demo. I'd say around 60,000. But whatever figure it is, it was clearly hugely more than 10,000.

So even if you accept your ridiculous assertion that the police aren't political in these kinda things (what a joke), are you saying that they are that thick/incompetent that they could get it that far out?

On what basis would you say 60,000? When I've counted marches (stand at a fixed point while it goes by, estimate number per minute and multiply by the time it takes to pass - jeez what a geek) I've been surprised to find cop estimates nearer than protest organisers.

More to the point, what do you think of Respect's website give a figure 66% higher than your estimate, a figure they'll give to their supporters but not stand by when they're accusing the cops of lying??!?

There's a whole science to this btw - http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2003/01/24/crowds/index.html

 

[detective-boy]

i've never really understood the infatuation with numbers relating to things like this, we've seen whether there's 2 million or 50,000 they do fuck all anyway, so why so much energy & effort expended on talkinig about numbers

Neither do I. And, organisationally, nor do the police in my experience.

 

[detective-boy]

Prove to me that there is a reason to regard their estimates as accurate.

They actually make an attempt at counting / calculating (using several different methods) and they have a long experience of dealing with public events. They do it primarily in order to guage resourcing needs (on the day and for future events) and, as they don;t want to be caught with too few officers, nor do they want to waste thousands on officers sitting around with nothing to do, they ahve an interest in them being accurate.

Sometimes organisers make an attempt at counting, sometimes they just lick their finger and hold it in the air.

It doesn't "prove" anything, but it actually happens, regardless of whether or not there is any political interest in numbers.

(There are also possible explanations for variation in exactly what is being estimated - total numbers, numbers on a march, numbers in the Square, numbers at any one time ...)

 

[detective-boy]

are you saying that they are that thick/incompetent that they could get it that far out?

No, I'm saying what those who have studied these things always say (and which agrees with my own personal experience), namely that visual estimates always grossly exaggerate numbers

 

[Yossarian]

So even if you accept your ridiculous assertion that the police aren't political in these kinda things (what a joke), are you saying that they are that thick/incompetent that they could get it that far out?

Even if they took their shoes and socks off, each copper would still only be able to count 20 protestors so it's no surprise police estimates are always very low...

 

[ska invita]

i've got a personal gripe against Ms Hudson who once likened me to a CIA agent for questioning why STWC played down Fairford in the run up to the war- but no way there was 100,000 (Respect site repeats this).
...

BBC says the organisers claim 60,000, which makes it stranger. Cops say 10,000. I'm sure it's between those figures.

I heard Kate say 60k , maybe she got carried away earlier in the day with 100k.

for my sins i was selling papers that day and I watched every last bugger file past me and counted around 35k - using a little time/space formula.

As we all know it makes no difference how many - could have be 3 million - so what - unless there is some civil disobedience the whole thing is symbolic, rather than active.

1,000 old ladies with bricks would have had more impact on the political landscape.

 

[militant atheist]

Just a quick question here, no agenda just curious. At these demos I'm always confronted by Swappies with buckets and wheelie bins (!) collecting for the 'costs of the demonstration', to which I'm happy to donate. But what exactly are these costs that are incurred, do you have to pay to hire Trafalgar Square or pay towards the policing? As the events are held in a public place I would assume not. Or are the collections used as general fundraising for STW activities? I don't have a problem if that is the case, like I say, just curious.

 

[The Sick Anchor]

you'd think they'd open up the finances of such things in the name of transparency, if they cared about such things that is

 

[Tom A]

As we all know it makes no difference how many - could have be 3 million - so what - unless there is some civil disobedience the whole thing is symbolic, rather than active.

1,000 old ladies with bricks would have had more impact on the political landscape.

Even if that happened, the physical damage would have been cleaned up in a matter of days, there would still be no direct impact on government policy, and the gutter press would have a field day with typical stories about "anarchist yobs". Also the police would probably brutally stamp down on this, and probably ban any future demonstrations as a punishment for not being "well-behaved, law abiding citizens".

Not saying people shouldn't do such things, but in the short to medium term nothing that people can fesably do is really going to stop the government war machine, it at best will cause it to slow down a slight bit.

Therefore I would rather be on the safe, boring, swppie-infested, A to B march thank you very much

 

[cockneyrebel]

On what basis would you say 60,000? When I've counted marches (stand at a fixed point while it goes by, estimate number per minute and multiply by the time it takes to pass - jeez what a geek) I've been surprised to find cop estimates nearer than protest organisers.

More to the point, what do you think of Respect's website give a figure 66% higher than your estimate, a figure they'll give to their supporters but not stand by when they're accusing the cops of lying??!?

The 60,000 is a very rough guess going on past demos I’ve seen.

But Trafalgar Square was full and for over an hour people were flowing in and out of the square as the march kept arriving. Any estimate at 10,000 is totally ridiculous and either has to have an agenda or is totally incompetent.

I don’t really care about Respect’s estimate to be honest. They’re hardly very significant.

And detective boy if you really think the police aren't political you're living in cloud cuckoo land.

 

[treelover]

says it all, really...

25 years or so on, most of us (including most of the trots and anarchists of the time) are settled, respectable, bureaucrats or wage-slaves or (in some cases) honourable members. But we thought we had a chance to change the world. Well many of us did, though not in the way we imagined at the time!

 

[The Sick Anchor]

yep, lets start building for next year's march, and lets make it the biggest & best ever!!!!!

 

[ska invita]

As we all know it makes no difference how many - could have be 3 million - so what - unless there is some civil disobedience the whole thing is symbolic, rather than active.

1,000 old ladies with bricks would have had more impact on the political landscape.

Even if that happened, the physical damage would have been cleaned up in a matter of days, there would still be no direct impact on government policy, and the gutter press would have a field day with typical stories about "anarchist yobs". Also the police would probably brutally stamp down on this, and probably ban any future demonstrations as a punishment for not being "well-behaved, law abiding citizens".

Not saying people shouldn't do such things, but in the short to medium term nothing that people can fesably do is really going to stop the government war machine, it at best will cause it to slow down a slight bit.

Therefore I would rather be on the safe, boring, swppie-infested, A to B march thank you very much

Take Trident - the point of the demo is to put pressure on the government not to spend billions of our money on it - the demo barely even got mentioned in the press, never mind influenced political opinion.

IF there was a core of a 1,000 old ladies (which CND + the peace movement has many crack-squads of) armed with bricks, who would have rushed down whitehall to smash in Downing Street we would have got the press coverage, the media couldnt pick on old ladies as anarchists yobs, the women could have told how they were around when Hiroshima was bombed, we could have had a vigil outside of the prison that some of them would have been sent to - and the whole excercise might have had some effect.

I dont think turning all demos into riots is a good idea - but even the suffragetes recognised the importance of taking illegal, non-violent (against people, but not property) direct action as part of a broader campaign.

STWC need to grow some balls. At least CND take part in illegal blockades at military sites. All STWC do is collect money and put on rallies - to no effect.

 

[Tom A]

IF there was a core of a 1,000 old ladies (which CND + the peace movement has many crack-squads of) armed with bricks, who would have rushed down whitehall to smash in Downing Street we would have got the press coverage, the media couldnt pick on old ladies as anarchists yobs, the women could have told how they were around when Hiroshima was bombed, we could have had a vigil outside of the prison that some of them would have been sent to - and the whole excercise might have had some effect.

Ok, but how many of these "old ladies" would be inclined to do such a thing? It's a nice idea though, and since they are OAPs, any brutal police repression of them would be a national PR disaster, particularly since the main polictial parties are always trying to win over the "grey vote".

 

[Groucho]

Just a quick question here, no agenda just curious. At these demos I'm always confronted by Swappies with buckets and wheelie bins (!) collecting for the 'costs of the demonstration', to which I'm happy to donate. But what exactly are these costs that are incurred, do you have to pay to hire Trafalgar Square or pay towards the policing? As the events are held in a public place I would assume not. Or are the collections used as general fundraising for STW activities? I don't have a problem if that is the case, like I say, just curious.

There are costs specific to the demo. I think insurance is included in that. Publicity for a big demo often puts an organisation into the red and needs to be recooped.

btw The Stop the War Coalition are considering ways to instigate an accurate count of the precise numbers who attend future mobilisations, rather than estimates (which have been based on such considerations as how long the march takes to get from a - b)

 

[The Sick Anchor]

There are costs specific to the demo. I think insurance is included in that. Publicity for a big demo often puts an organisation into the red and needs to be recooped.

that recooperation, if required, would be more likely to happen if they showed some transparency about the actual costs incurred by the 'movement' on such marches, if they are so much in the red publicising that fact should surely be encouraged, i wonder why they don't..

btw The Stop the War Coalition are considering ways to instigate an accurate count of the precise numbers who attend future mobilisations, rather than estimates (which have been based on such considerations as how long the march takes to get from a - b)

good to see stwc throwing themselves into something productive in between marches

 

[treelover]

it would be good if they (STWC) also considered opening up their accounts and let the interested public see where all the money goes

btw The Stop the War Coalition are considering ways to instigate an accurate count of the precise numbers who attend future mobilisations, rather than estimates (which have been based on such considerations as how long the march takes to get from a - b)

 

[cockneyrebel]

Although the sick anchor does seem a tad cynical to put it mildly there is a point in what he's saying. The STWC has not done hardly anything beyond building the A to B demos. Very little effort has been put into trying to build for direct actions (such as blocades) or building for strike action. Ultimately demos will not be enough, clearly if 2 million people are just ignored something more needs to be done. This wouldn't be easy by any means but the leadership of the STWC (including many SWPers) should say more than "this is brilliant" and actually give a strategy that will stop the war.

Short article here:

http://www.permanentrevolution.net/?view=entry&entry=1177

 

[treelover]

A genuine internationalist anti-war movement would attempt to build links with those suffering in the respective countries: the trade unions in Iraq, the feminists and womens rights movements in Iraq and Afghanistan and Iran, the student protesters/human rights groups in Iran, perhaps fund some hospitals in Iraq, Perhaps also organise genuine peace conferences, with major players like Jimmy carter instead of nonentites like Galloway. But on no, that all would go against what some of STWC fundamentalist conservative allies would want.

Imo, we have lost the greatest chance of an genuinely internationalist non sectarian, human rights based and pro-active movement for a generation. Instead we now have a hollowed out shell of a movement peopled and dominated by failed stalinists, millenarian trots and other opportunists.

 

[HackneyE9]

Just a quick question here, no agenda just curious. At these demos I'm always confronted by Swappies with buckets and wheelie bins (!) collecting for the 'costs of the demonstration', to which I'm happy to donate. But what exactly are these costs that are incurred, do you have to pay to hire Trafalgar Square or pay towards the policing? As the events are held in a public place I would assume not. Or are the collections used as general fundraising for STW activities? I don't have a problem if that is the case, like I say, just curious.

That's a good question - has anyone got an answer? They don't charge for using Trafalgar Square or all the coppers' overtime after all.

After "donating" three hours of shuffling in the drizzle, I'm fucked if I'm giving some hard-earned to the SWP.