brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Direct rule, surely?
Northern Ireland 2017 election
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Seems the most likely outcome. Though I suppose if SF get close enough you could have some sort of SF-UUP(+Alliance?) mashup?
N_igma
Epistemic nuisance
It doesn't work as a normal coalition government in that there is no opposition. Works on a mandatory power sharing basis. Basically the biggest party gets the First Minister post and the second biggest party gets the Deputy First Minister post and ministerial jobs are allocated on the basis of seats gained too.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Ah, I knew the government had to consist of both a unionist and nationalist party but didn't know it had to the largest two.
likesfish
You can't park here sir
call me dave really ought to be in the Tower turning out a questionaire that asks the average brit do you hate foreigners and westminster mps was only going to end one way
.
Ireland is purely collateral in this dogs breakfast
although sitting in a portacabin in milton keynes working down a kill list for the drone for troubles 2 this time we are serious
does have a slight appeal
.Ireland is purely collateral in this dogs breakfast
although sitting in a portacabin in milton keynes working down a kill list for the drone for troubles 2 this time we are serious
does have a slight appeal
Pickman's model
sunset spires and twilight woods
cmd should be buried in lime in wandsworth or wormwood scrubscall me dave really ought to be in the Tower turning out a questionaire that asks the average brit do you hate foreigners and westminster mps was only going to end one way
Ireland is purely collateral in this dogs breakfast
although sitting in a portacabin in milton keynes working down a kill list for the drone for troubles 2 this time we are serious
does have a slight appeal
N_igma
Epistemic nuisance
Yeh the Office of First and Deputy First Minister are the two largest parties although smaller parties do get the odd ministerial role such as Roads and Transport, Justice etc. The main problem we have is a thing called a petition of concern which basically works as a veto. If any legislation that is brought forward that doesn't have more than 60% approval and 40% approval from nationalists and unionists then it can be vetoed by anyone within that group.
This is why gay marriage remains illegal here despite the will of the people and a majority of MLA's yet because the DUP and some UUP members were against it's been thrown out countless times.
Which is why it was imperative to get rid of those DUP dinosaur fucks whilst they were on their knees but no same old shit time and time again.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Cheers for that explanation.
Idris2002
Stay Alive in '25
Fuck's sake!call me dave really ought to be in the Tower turning out a questionaire that asks the average brit do you hate foreigners and westminster mps was only going to end one way
Ireland is purely collateral in this dogs breakfast
although sitting in a portacabin in milton keynes working down a kill list for the drone for troubles 2 this time we are serious
does have a slight appeal
N_igma
Epistemic nuisance
Results are in and there's some interesting things to report. Overall DUP remain the biggest party but with a vastly reduced margin. At the last Assembly elections in May they were 50,000 votes and 10 seats ahead of Sinn Fein. This time it's 1,200 votes and one seat so massive gains for Sinn Fein (the amount of seats was reduced from 108 to 90 so you have to factor that in slightly)
Northern Ireland Assembly election 2017 results - BBC News
Some high profile casualties too from across the board due to the decrease in seats. Mind you I'm glad to see the back of most of them. As a result it's the first election ever where Unionist parties are not the majority.
Also the DUP alone can't trigger a petition of concern now even with the socially conservative TUV candidate Jim Allistair's backing. Hopefully this means that we'll finally get gay marriage legalised here and liberalisation of abortion laws. That is if the two main parties agree to go back to power sharing government.
Direct Rule is a possibility if the parties don't agree and where does that leave us in the wake of Brexit? Interesting times ahead.
Northern Ireland Assembly election 2017 results - BBC News
Some high profile casualties too from across the board due to the decrease in seats. Mind you I'm glad to see the back of most of them. As a result it's the first election ever where Unionist parties are not the majority.
Also the DUP alone can't trigger a petition of concern now even with the socially conservative TUV candidate Jim Allistair's backing. Hopefully this means that we'll finally get gay marriage legalised here and liberalisation of abortion laws. That is if the two main parties agree to go back to power sharing government.
Direct Rule is a possibility if the parties don't agree and where does that leave us in the wake of Brexit? Interesting times ahead.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Both the BBC and Guardian results pages are rubbish. But to me it looks like it's more the increased turnout and fewer second preference votes that has reduced the DUP vote share, they actually got more first preference votes than in 2016.
You don't have the silly above and below the lines options, and a compulsory vote for ever stage that they do in Aus right?
You don't have the silly above and below the lines options, and a compulsory vote for ever stage that they do in Aus right?
N_igma
Epistemic nuisance
The turnout was up 10% so most parties increased their vote but not their share of the vote.
Northern Ireland Assembly Elections uses a Single Transferrable Voting method. You can vote for one candidate you can vote for them all.
Interestingly the UUP leader asked his voters to transfer their votes to the nationalist SDLP. His reasoning being that if enough of them voted they could break the DUP/Sinn Fein monopoly. Naturally you got vast numbers of Unionists calling him a traitor and it resulted in their worst performance ever and his resignation.
Funnily enough in some constituencies large numbers of UUP voters did actually transfer to the SDLP and actually cost the DUP at least 2 seats as a result so wasn't all bad.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
But do you vote for individuals or parties (or both).
Originally in the Australia system you voted for individuals but you had to rank your preference for all the candidates. As you could have 40+ people standing obviously people couldn't be arsed doing that and so just spoiled their ballots. So the "solution" was to introduced 'below the line votes' where people could just vote for Party list and then the Party would decide how to transfer preferences. The outcome of this was that you had a whole load of minor parties making weird deals with each other and the end result was people who got less than 1% of first preference votes getting a seat. They then decided that they didn't want that, abolished the group ticket and make it not longer compulsory to vote further down than six (I think it's six but I could be wrong on that).
Dom Traynor
Kill all fascists
Under STV you vote for individuals
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Not necessarily the Australian system is still STV, just a very silly version of it.
Dom Traynor
Kill all fascists
Fair enough I thought it was candidate based STV for the senate and preferential voting/party voting for the lower house.
N_igma
Epistemic nuisance
Not this time around. He had a running partner but even with their two votes combined they wouldn't have topped the poll.
It's strange because PBP were on a roll up there, it's a constituency with some of the highest levels of deprivation and crime in the North and many have felt that the Shinners have simply turned their backs on them. One of their candidates Pat Sheehan is a landlord for fucks sakes, some revolutionary he is.
Sinn Fein must've done some electioneering up there to get the 4 seats but I think they just got lucky with the way the election was pitched by the media and the two biggest parties (it's us or them), the anger at the RHI scandal and the DUP's attitude towards the Irish Language Act along with Martin McGuinness' poor health and new leadership gave them extra votes. Not sure they'd be so lucky if there was a third election however.
In general they've always been good at maximising the vote spread in assembly elections and this has been no different. 4 out of 5 seats in West Belfast and 3 out of 5 in Newry and Armagh, Fermanagh and South Tyrone and Mid Ulster no mean feat.
flypanam
Sausage to fortune
Didn't he say that pbp view on brexit didn't help his vote. And I suppose the six seater becoming a 5 didn't help too.
N_igma
Epistemic nuisance
Yeh true I don't think people here are ready for 'lexit' type thinking.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
In your view what's the chances that after a pause for a bit of theatre, the DUP and SF end up back in government before the end of the year?
N_igma
Epistemic nuisance
I think Sinn Fein want Arlene to stand down before they go back to government but I'm sure there'll be talks behind the scenes to get the thing back up and running. There's no desire for a return to Direct Rule from any of the main parties. My guess is that there'll be a deal on the Irish Language Act and/or some sort of compromise on the RHI scandal to appease Sinn Fein as they are holding all the cards. After that it'll be as you were in Stormont.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
That's pretty much what I thought.
For the lower house it's still candidate based (well in theory, in practice of course most people vote for the party) AV but with the required to list all preferences.
miktheword
Well-Known Member
PBP definitely think it was Brexit that Sinn Fein targetted them for. PBP took a principled lexit stance.
SF must have been rocked by losing seats in their heartlands last time West Belfast and Derry. It seems they went all out on the doorstep in a similar fashion to what the IWCA must've experienced when making initial inroads and similarly rocking the Labour Party in particular.
If Brexit is all SF had as ammo, that too is interesting and shouldn't lead to despondency for PBP. Also, two elections in rapid time will also hurt minor party's resources. Last time, the Bog was swamped with PBP posters; this time, despite only seeing outskirts of Derry, I saw far fewer posters of PBP. Two weeks back, they along with other minor parties were invited but couldn't get a panellist along to the Nolan live election special.
SF vote up 4%ish, too early for detailed breakdown but speculation that hard brexit since last elections may have led to many ethnic minorities especially east Europeans coming out for SF.
as well as above mentioned UUP transfers helping SDLP eventually, I think I also saw evidence of SDLP helping UUP as well.
SF must have been rocked by losing seats in their heartlands last time West Belfast and Derry. It seems they went all out on the doorstep in a similar fashion to what the IWCA must've experienced when making initial inroads and similarly rocking the Labour Party in particular.
If Brexit is all SF had as ammo, that too is interesting and shouldn't lead to despondency for PBP. Also, two elections in rapid time will also hurt minor party's resources. Last time, the Bog was swamped with PBP posters; this time, despite only seeing outskirts of Derry, I saw far fewer posters of PBP. Two weeks back, they along with other minor parties were invited but couldn't get a panellist along to the Nolan live election special.
SF vote up 4%ish, too early for detailed breakdown but speculation that hard brexit since last elections may have led to many ethnic minorities especially east Europeans coming out for SF.
as well as above mentioned UUP transfers helping SDLP eventually, I think I also saw evidence of SDLP helping UUP as well.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
The way I saw it was they played the Irish language act card quite skilfully . Basically beat a tribal drum , knowing the DUP would beat their drum in return, put on its nasty anti Fenian face and thereby motivate a nationalist voter response . It's institutionalised sectarianism . That, corruption and austerity ..along with the legitimisation of British rule..is all Stormont has to offer . People before Profit fucking know this but are just as guilty of hoodwinking the masses by pretending it can offer something different .
The new plastered in make up face at the helm worked in the shinners favour too .
All that's been proven, yet again, is when it comes to a tin pot sectarian little shithole such as Stormont there's no need for either a nationalist or unionist second party among the tribes . The SDLP and UUP have paid the price for that . shinners have basically been slurping up the remnants of the SDLP vote . They're pretty much redundant now . McGuinness shuffling off the scene sweetened the pill for the remaining stoop voters jumping ship .
What I've been hearing for a long while about PBP , whether in Belfast or Derry , is once they were elected you hardly saw them again locally . And some pretty aghast commentary about Gerry Carroll for example . Who in the runup to this announced something along the lines of " What West Belfast needs most is gay marriage !! "
Umm..no . Nowhere near the top of the list .
Anyway, the deck chairs on the Titanic have been ever so slightly rearranged . Shinners and DUP will be back to business as usual providing the inevitable disaster gets postponed for a little longer .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Unless something unforeseen jumps out of the cupboard that'll be it pretty much . Same shit as usual .
It's already been sorted out . There'll just be some theatre for a few weeks for appearances sake . Stern faces and angry tweets .
The PBP's position on Brexit (Lexit rather than Brexit, but such distinctions generally get lost here) was very deliberately and skilfully exploited by SF.
Similar threads
