New Hampshire Primaries

[catrina]

Was well chuffed to open the news page this morning. I'll support Obama if he's the candidate, but for all his orating about how he's the seed of change and will take the politics out of politics, he played nasty this week in the debates, and he has paid for it. (What was that 'you're likeable enough.'?)

And Edwards thought he'd steal the show by ganging up on her with BO, that backfired.

On to Michigan...

 

[Matt S]

Michigan is a no-contest, neither Edwards nor Obama are on the ballot.

Matt

P.S. I thought I was depressed about Obama doing well, but now that Clinton has won a primary, I have nostalgia for when he won!

 

[weltweit]

I don't understand how the opinion polls were so wrong, last nights 10pm news had Barak Obama winning, at least that was their strong prediction, and this morning what eh .. Hillary Clinton won.

What is the point of opinion polls if they can be so wrong?

 

[Yossarian]

Eh, moron?

Sorry, Mr Reading Comprehension, next time I call you stupid I'll do it in a less roundabout way so you'll be sure to understand.

 

[Belushi]

I don't understand how the opinion polls were so wrong, last nights 10pm news had Barak Obama winning, at least that was their strong prediction, and this morning what eh .. Hillary Clinton won.

What is the point of opinion polls if they can be so wrong?

They do sometimes get it very wrong - remember the '92 General Election? Not sure what happened in this case, I suspect a lot of voters didnt make their minds up until the last minute and reacted against some of the hysteria building up around Obama.

 

[kyser_soze]

Clinton/Obama ticket for the actual election I reckon, with McCain/Romney for the Republicans - Huckabee will bring in more far-right Xtian votes, but that in turn will alienate Paleo-Republicans/independent conservatives and Republican Democrats - Bush's big sell was his ability to keep the Evangelicals in the tent AND non-hardcore Xtians, but there isn't a Republican candidate who can carry both voter constituencies convincingly - Romney won't get votes from them cos he's a Mormon, McCain or Giuliani cos they're too liberal (even tho Giuliani has attempted to ditch most of his principles on abortion and other flame issues), and someone like Huckabee won't carry voters somewhere like California when it comes to the actual election.

Potentially the strongest Democrat ticket in years, even more so than Clinton/Gore in 1992, especially as they also have Congress as well. What I'd really like to see is the Dems going to town, Lewinsky style, on the current administration if they get the Oval Office...

 

[kyser_soze]

They do sometimes get it very wrong - remember the '92 General Election? Not sure what happened in this case, I suspect a lot of voters didnt make their minds up until the last minute and reacted against some of the hysteria building up around Obama.

She got out more older voters and won the women's vote - NH is a far more progressive state than Iowa, where female democratic voters were saying that the Presidency is a 'man's job'...49% - 36% according to the Gruaniad's coverage

 

[ska invita]

Really good little flash type thing to understanding the whole primaries thing in the US here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/flash/page/0,,2224057,00.html
recommend it.

 

[lewislewis]

Bring back Ralph Nader.

 

[dilute micro]

The pollsters got that one wrong did'nt they ?

You know what? I don't think they did. Demographics is down to a science. They know what the polls will look like depending on which county they call or which city. And with this independent movement going on it's can't be ignored and end up with a good poll.

There has also been the media jumping on the Obama bandwagon because it's exciting. Hillary had been getting downplayed in the media and her pictures were the edited kind to make her look bad. And that I heard from a conservative on talk radio. I really think the media can try to create an impression that isn't really there. I thought Obama had it won.

 

[zoltan]

Bring back Ralph Nader.

Oof . tricky one - some argue that Ralph took enough votes from the democrats to get Bush into the white office.

BY twisted logic, It could be argued that

911
Iraq
Afghanistan
bezair Bhutto assasination etc

are all ralphs fault

 

[dilute micro]

And Guilani!! He will be important!

He needs to show up if he wants to win. He's hurting bad.

 

[nino_savatte]

Who incidentially voted for..
1. The Patriot Act.
2. Funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
3. Voted against the concept for health care for the 25 millions poorest Americans who can`t afford it!!!!
He`s Tony Blair all over..all chat.... no substance....the yanks will come to rue the day they voted for him ( that is if he makes the White House).

Exactly, let's not get too excited about the prospect of a 'black president'. He's just as macho, bellicose and socially Darwinian as the other lot. He also seems to think, like so many others, that the US is "G*d's chosen land".

It's [big] business as usual. As you were.

 

[dilute micro]

P.S. I thought I was depressed about Obama doing well, but now that Clinton has won a primary, I have nostalgia for when he won!

He'll win South Carolina.

 

[Belushi]

He needs to show up if he wants to win. He's hurting bad.

Yeah, I think his strategy of waiting until the big States is a big mistake.

 

[kyser_soze]

You mean like this?

From grauniadunltd home page...

Hell, I think I might put this on 'I'm on ur internetz...'

 

[Belushi]

Fuck thats scary

 

[kyser_soze]

The Guardian picture eds are being really harsh on her I reckon - there was one a few days ago that made her look like Arnie in Total Recall when his eyes pop out from decompression...

 

[dilute micro]

Really good little flash type thing to understanding the whole primaries thing in the US here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/flash/page/0,,2224057,00.html
recommend it.

I think it's not accurate to keep reading how Huckabee is the evangelical candidate as if it's the chief issue with him. He's saying (saying at least) things that no one else dares to. Lot's of people would like to get rid of the IRS and install a better robbery system. Evangelicals aren't the swing voters anyhow.

 

[dilute micro]

 

[Jografer]

The pollsters got that one wrong did'nt they ?

That was my initial reaction, 'they've made a pigs ear of their predictions', but I'm not sure that's totally the case..

.. it looks as though the polls may have been right at the time they were taken but the electorate are so undecided & volatile that things swung to Hillary C at the last minute...

It's interesting that the Q&A session where she nearly broke down in tears is being cited as a turning point. Bill C's strength was in his 'emotional intelligence' skills where as Hillary C is portrayed as the 'ice queen'... am I being too cynical to suggest that as Bill was pulled in to advise post-Iowa there is any conection with the new, more 'human' Hillary....

... either way it looks as if Hillary C was ahead in both womens & young peoples support, a real turnaround from Iowa. The women's vote in Iowa was no suprise, as women there, when polled, said that being Pres was 'man's job' but I thought the YP vote was sewn up for Barack O...

Either way a reported 50% turnout for a primary is v.impressive....

 

[Belushi]

It's interesting that the Q&A session where she nearly broke down in tears is being cited as a turning point. Bill C's strength was in his 'emotional intelligence' skills where as Hillary C is portrayed as the 'ice queen'... am I being too cynical to suggest that as Bill was pulled in to advise post-Iowa there is any conection with the new, more 'human' Hillary....

The day before her own campaign team said she needed to be more 'human'.

 

[dilute micro]

Good result for Clinton - seems like blubbing the other day really worked

I thought it would hurt her. Now people debate whether it was real or not.

Am I just a pervert or does she look better than she ever has?

 

[Idris2002]

He also wants a dept of peace.

In Simon Louvish's Resurrections from the Dustbin of History, there's a scene where Willy Brandt visits Herbert Marcuse in Spandau prison. Marcuse rips the piss out of Brandt, and his fellow 'ex-ministers for peace, the good men trying to reform the bad'.

 

[Gmart]

Interestingly some articles, such as this one, suggest that Obama is becoming a victim of the so-called 'Bradley Effect'.

That raised fears that Obama had suffered from concealed racism through what pollsters nickname "the Bradley effect", a reference to the black mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who lost an election for governor of California in 1982 despite having commanding opinion poll leads with white voters beforehand.

According to this theory, when faced with a black candidate, voters tell pollsters one thing and then do another in the privacy of the voting booth. In Iowa, where the caucuses mean voting is done in open sight, the Bradley effect could not take place.

 

[kyser_soze]

... either way it looks as if Hillary C was ahead in both womens & young peoples support, a real turnaround from Iowa. The women's vote in Iowa was no suprise, as women there, when polled, said that being Pres was 'man's job' but I thought the YP vote was sewn up for Barack O...

OI! I already said that...taxer

 

[Gmart]

And Michael Bloomberg still has a hand to play (see here).

Rudolph Giuliani may well end up as the only viable Republican. Watch as his personal beliefs (such as prochoice and pro gay marriage) fail when faced with a prejudiced electorate!!

 

[Idris2002]

I thought it would hurt her. Now people debate whether it was real or not.

Am I just a pervert or does she look better than she ever has?

Nothing perverse about appreciating the charms of the Older Woman, my man.

Pity about her pro-war, pro-corporate policies, of course.

And the same thing goes with Obama - incredibly charismatic, but look at the fine print and various political nasties appear.

I'll be voting Zombie Eugene Debs like I always do.

 

[Belushi]

Nothing perverse about appreciating the charms of the Older Woman, my man.

Dam straight. Hillary has never done anything for me though. Condoleeza Rice on the other hand...

 

[kyser_soze]

And Michael Bloomberg still has a hand to play (see here).

Rudolph Giuliani may well end up as the only viable Republican. Watch as his personal beliefs (such as prochoice and pro gay marriage) fail when faced with a prejudiced electorate!!

Am I fucking invisible on this thread or something? Randy's already dropped his pro-gay, pro-choice position to appeal to the right of the Republican party...

Condoleeza Rice on the other hand...

I know what you mean, I just can't get past the teeth tho - it makes her look like one of the Woodland Kritters from South Park...you know, the one who says 'Hey y'all, don't be down'