My 5 quid treble

[Phenotypic Dai]

Whist I wouldn't class myself as a gambling aficionado, I feel that the humble football accumulator is being unfairly besmirched in this thread. Over the course of a season it'll bring home the bacon 3 or 4 times; with the qualifying round of the UEFA cup and the first round of the FA cup being particular highlights for a six team punt.

With that said here's my midweek selection!

Cardiff(8/11) v Blackpool

QPR v Birmingham(6/4)

Southampton v Coventry(7/4)

Millwall(8/15) v Hereford

Oldham v Scunthorpe(6/4)

 

[marty21]

Whist I wouldn't class myself as a gambling aficionado, I feel that the humble football accumulator is being unfairly besmirched in this thread. Over the course of a season it'll bring home the bacon 3 or 4 times; with the qualifying round of the UEFA cup and the first round of the FA cup being particular highlights for a six team punt.

With that said here's my midweek selection!

Cardiff(8/11) v Blackpool

QPR v Birmingham(6/4)

Southampton v Coventry(7/4)

Millwall(8/15) v Hereford

Oldham v Scunthorpe(6/4)

i predict that there will be at least one draw there

 

[upsidedownwalrus]

I often put small amounts on really silly accumulators.

I know it's daft. But no dafter than playing the lottery. And at least you can make an informed decision about who you think will win each one. You can't make a rationale for why the number 45 ball is more likely to come out than the number 35.

I came very very close to a 13k win on the internationals the other week. If Austria had deigned to beat the fucking Faroes, and Romania hadn't conceded a late equaliser to france, i would have done. That was off 50p. So it's not out of the question to win one at all.

 

[Relahni]

I often put small amounts on really silly accumulators.

I know it's daft. But no dafter than playing the lottery. And at least you can make an informed decision about who you think will win each one. You can't make a rationale for why the number 45 ball is more likely to come out than the number 35.

I came very very close to a 13k win on the internationals the other week. If Austria had deigned to beat the fucking Faroes, and Romania hadn't conceded a late equaliser to france, i would have done. That was off 50p. So it's not out of the question to win one at all.

Of course, like I said earlier - you get a 729-1 chance with a 6 match accumulator.

 

[upsidedownwalrus]

Of course, like I said earlier - you get a 729-1 chance with a 6 match accumulator.

But it's not as random as a 729-1 chance. In my view it's not quite the same as picking a random ball out of 729.

For instance, the bet I put down, the odds must have been about 26,000 to 1. Given that I came very very close by making informed decisions, that shows that the actual odds of making the right guesses, if you know much about the game, are significantly lower than that. Making it much better vfm than the lottery, which really is pure chance.

I can see where you're coming from, but it's all just a bit of fun anyway. Gives me an extra reason to look at teh scores coming in, and what's 50p a week anyway? The price of a can of coke.

If I wanted to seriously make money from betting, I would open an online account, watch the games live and always bet on a team when the score is 0-0 and they really looked like winning, when it reaches about 1.9/2.0.

 

[upsidedownwalrus]

I should add that the internationals are generally a much better place to do an accumulator. Most games tend to go 'to form', unlike the league which is much much harder to choose, there are so many upsets each week.

 

[Relahni]

But it's not as random as a 729-1 chance. In my view it's not quite the same as picking a random ball out of 729.

For instance, the bet I put down, the odds must have been about 26,000 to 1. Given that I came very very close by making informed decisions, that shows that the actual odds of making the right guesses, if you know much about the game, are significantly lower than that. Making it much better vfm than the lottery, which really is pure chance.

I can see where you're coming from, but it's all just a bit of fun anyway. Gives me an extra reason to look at teh scores coming in, and what's 50p a week anyway? The price of a can of coke.

If I wanted to seriously make money from betting, I would open an online account, watch the games live and always bet on a team when the score is 0-0 and they really looked like winning, when it reaches about 1.9/2.0.

I kind of get you, but I'm not having it.

Arsenal v Hull

Liverpool v Stoke

Man Utd v Newcastle

Are 3 examples of teams being well odds on where the home teams were a "cert". What happened in all three of these games? Away win, draw and draw. Your very best "informed decision making" would have arrived at nothing more than 3 home wins surely?

 

[upsidedownwalrus]

I kind of get you, but I'm not having it.

Arsenal v Hull

Liverpool v Stoke

Man Utd v Newcastle

Are 3 examples of teams being well odds on where the home teams were a "cert". What happened in all three of these games? Away win, draw and draw. Your very best "informed decision making" would have arrived at nothing more than 3 home wins surely?

Fine. I'm just saying that if you want to make a vain attempt at winning a lot of money, a big accumulator is probably a more logical way to do it than the lottery.

On the other hand, one thing that is for sure is that putting down a simple 'quadruple' on the big 4 to win is a mug's game, as the odds aren't all that long, so you need to put down a fair bit to make it worth something, and they rarely do all win their games.

 

[Relahni]

Fine. I'm just saying that if you want to make a vain attempt at winning a lot of money, a big accumulator is probably a more logical way to do it than the lottery.

On the other hand, one thing that is for sure is that putting down a simple 'quadruple' on the big 4 to win is a mug's game, as the odds aren't all that long, so you need to put down a fair bit to make it worth something, and they rarely do all win their games.

Again, the big four win more than they draw and lose, but it's down to maths

3 x 3 x 3 x 3 = 81 outcomes.

A lot of outcomes for very small odds.

 

[upsidedownwalrus]

Again, the big four win more than they draw and lose, but it's down to maths

3 x 3 x 3 x 3 = 81 outcomes.

A lot of outcomes for very small odds.

Yeah. They usually offer about 4-1 or 3-1 for the big four all to win, which is really crap when as you say there are so many possible outcomes and there's usually one upset.

That's why if I do an accumulator I usually just do a silly one just for a laugh.

The one I did last week I put 25p down and would have won 350,000 quid if it had come out right.

 

[marty21]

I should add that the internationals are generally a much better place to do an accumulator. Most games tend to go 'to form', unlike the league which is much much harder to choose, there are so many upsets each week.

i agree, as my 6 match international accumulator proved the odds are not great though, 5 of them were odds on, giants v minnows, so £3 became £50, mainly thanks to latvia nicking an 88th minute equaliser against israel

 

[Relahni]

Any fancies tonight?

 

[upsidedownwalrus]

Any fancies tonight?

Swansea
Cardiff
Newcastle-West Brom draw
Reading
Norwich
Doncaster barnsley draw