Mobile Platforms: Who will survive?

[Sunray]

These devices will provide a trickle down effect to the mass market. Much like the iPod did to the masses in terms of MP3 players.

People see it, have a go and then realise that their current phone can't really compete but they also can't afford them. The likes of Nokia and Sony then start to introduce some features as standard and in the end like ABS and Power steering, all the phones have it by default rather than just the iPhone which will probably be a foot note in history by then.

 

[paolo]

These devices will provide a trickle down effect to the mass market. Much like the iPod did to the masses in terms of MP3 players.

People see it, have a go and then realise that their current phone can't really compete but they also can't afford them. The likes of Nokia and Sony then start to introduce some features as standard and in the end like ABS and Power steering, all the phones have it by default rather than just the iPhone which will probably be a foot note in history by then.

Yep, bang on IMHO.

Which is why the high end could be very important to selling the mass market products. If you want to sell the '3210' stuff, you are much better placed if you've got* a good high end OS you can take bits from with almost no incremental cost.

*'got' meaning access to, not that you have to have developed it yourself.

 

[kyser_soze]

If Apple only limit themselves to one network per territory they'll be players, but mid level at best. Network choice and value comes before handset for most buyers, and the iPhone is expensive whichever way you look at it, especially for contract customers who are used to getting their phones free every 18 months. A single pricey handset is not going to drive buyers onto 02.

 

[paolo]

If Apple only limit themselves to one network per territory they'll be players, but mid level at best. Network choice and value comes before handset for most buyers, and the iPhone is expensive whichever way you look at it, especially for contract customers who are used to getting their phones free every 18 months. A single pricey handset is not going to drive buyers onto 02.

Right now I suspect it is driving some people into O2, but ultimately you are right; if there's an alternative that's roughly on par, but available on all the networks, then the markets where Apple's has single provider tie-in will take a hit for that strategy.

 

[paolo]

Bumpsky because Android has arrived. No real news from Open Symbian, Windows Mobile is still in the "meh" camp, and Palm seems to remain - in terms of shipping product - washed up.

My reckoning for the imediate future: RIM holds business, but fails to make a big dent in consumer. Android begins to slug it out with Apple, as better devices appear and the UI gets tidied up.

 

[tarannau]

There was some tech commentator waffling on recently about how technological spheres only generally support 3 or so major platforms (eg Windows, Mac OSX and Linux)

I'm not convinced by the logic relating properly to the mobile phone sphere tbh. But if I had to put money down, I'd wager that Symbian may struggle in the longer term - it's the least branded and attractive of the smartphone OSs. Apple's likely to be safe for a while yet - brand loyalty and the 'fun' UI factor will tend to maintain a certain hold. Android promises great things and it's the most likely to take off quickly from a number of manufacturers.

The two most vulnerable to cannibalising each other seem to be RIM and Windows Mobile - RIM's profited from Windows Mobile's crapness and generic nature to a certain extent, carving out a hefty chunk of the corporate email market. I can't see Windows mobile proving as attractive to consumers as Apple's or Android's offering, but I can see a much improved Windows Mobile, along with the massive MS IT and support network, giving RIM far more problems going forward. Interesting times.

 

[mauvais]

Yeah but you said 'going forward' so it doesn't count. Sorry.

 

[tarannau]

You have a point there. I think the Windows/RIM corporate speak has got to me.

 

[paolo]

So, a 'mid-term' review.

I think my key phrase in all of this is something like 'emotive traction', or 'ecosystem'. They allude to the same thing. The user's "bind" with the device. (The all original, for this, was Palm.)

RIM remain. They are not unassailable - Apple and Winmo offer the chance of escaping license fees - but RIM is entrenched. The corporate market carries alot of inertia and for that reason alone, I think RIM are good and safe for about two years, even if they don't innovate.

Apple isn't (quite) god of consumer anymore. Tech folk are liking Android. Hardware nuts are loving HTC. None of this is making a dent in Apple's sales, but it's not the same landscape as a year ago, when Apple had exclusivity on this kibd of consumer OS. For the time being though, iPhones will ship in volumes.

Android. Well it's been a bumpy start. In some ways, bumpier than either of the above. The hardware, the G1, has been labelled as beta, as has the OS. But it has some grass roots interest. And alot of net 'chatter'. Something that volume players like S60 and Winmo don't have.

So, what of the others?

Winmo: "You're everywhere and nowhere". A zillion users, and almost as many devices. And yet, with the latest kit, it seems people are buying in spite of the OS (e.g. "it's ok, it's got Touchflow") rather than because of it. But despite (I'd say) very little emotive traction, MS will obviously not give up. And futhermore, MS are - when proved catastrophically wrong - good at reinventing themselves. My prediction: There'll be a new Winmo, eventually, that'll be a big catch-up.

Palm: Sadly I think, dead. They invented all of this but - if anything does happen - it's going to be too late. The momentum - hanset sales, 3rd party development - is gone. To get that back would take more years than they have cash. Palm are out.

Symbian: Nokia are arguably becoming a latter day Palm. They have the volume sales, but no vision it seems. Symbian, S60, Open Symbian. None of these has reached 'buzz' level with either consumers or developers. There have been 'beacon' handsets such as the N95, but it's been hardware led. Symbian has been an 'also ran' in these stakes, and there's no sign change there.

So, at this point, in the "three OS" theory, I still say:

RIM / Apple / Android

And, to be "brave", I'd say in about 2-3 years, Android irreversibly overtakes Apple in sales. But that's another topic.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

How much is the RIM OS really a platform though? It's an OS, but is there active development going on for it, apart from, well, RIM doing some things? It will remain strong as a platform for a while, sure, but is it what you'd call an ongoing platform? (The Storm is going to flop, definitely.)

Otherwise, iPhone, yes, Android, quite possibly but let's see, and I think Windows Mobile will hang on for quite a while. Phone companies with no real interest in their OS - i.e. most of them unfortunately - can just whang it on and have access to lots of apps and syncing and so on.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

I agree with everything you've said, but Nokia are a lot bigger then Palm ever where and have a lot more resources to throw into the battle. They still lots of bog standard phones and I belive many of their "smart phones" are sold to consumers who don't really use them as such, just snap a few pics and play MP3's. I wouldn't write them of just yet.

 

[editor]

I think Pam are going to be toast in six months unless they have something really, really special up their sleeves.

I hope they survive though.

 

[mauvais]

Next to nothing has changed since the start of this thread, except that UIQ is dead.

I reckon in three years time, platforms will be irrelevant, if they're not already. Noone gives a shit how you architecturally manage the core functionality of the phone, so platforms only matter in terms of third party applications and services.

The iPhone in its current format, both technically and operationally, is near useless to large scale (i.e. enterprise) developers. However it added another significantly different device to the market and made it even more of a pain to do anything cross-platform at the application level.

Devices and platforms are not going to consolidate down any time soon, so the way around this is to add a new layer. It won't be a Java-like VM again as that never really worked. It'll likely tie in with the desktop push to both rich internet apps (RIA - e.g. Flex, Silverlight, JavaFX) and software as a service (SaaS). Therefore it's the browser and common standards that matter much more than any core OS.

 

[paolo]

The inference there is that one can slap any old OS on a device, because middleware will sort it all out. I'd say that's very wishful thinking. All Palm needs is a decent browser?

 

[mauvais]

Palm make crap hardware and crap embedded software and have a crap business model. Unless you can argue that Palm's failings are down to a lack of software support, the platform is irrelevant.

 

[editor]

Palm make crap hardware and crap embedded software and have a crap business model. Unless you can argue that Palm's failings are down to a lack of software support, the platform is irrelevant.

I wouldn't call the Centro or the Palm Treo Pro 'crap' myself.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

So RIM, WM, Android and Apple will survive with Palm gone and Symbian where Palm is now?

 

[editor]

I didn't expect this:

U.S. sales of Apple's iPhone, which rose dramatically in the third quarter of this year, dropped significantly in the fourth quarter. At the same time, sales of BlackBerrys increased to the point where RIM has more than double Apple's share of this market.
According to market-research firm IDC, Apple had 30.1% of the U.S. smartphone market during the third quarter of 2008, but that dropped to 22.3% in the fourth quarter.

By contrast, RIM's share of this market was 40.4% in the third quarter of last year, and this rose to 47.5% by the end of the year.

http://www.brighthand.com/default.asp?newsID=14945&subject=Apple+iPhone+BlackBerry

Be interesting to see how things shape up after the Pre launch....

 

[Kid_Eternity]

So RIM, WM, Android and Apple will survive with Palm gone and Symbian where Palm is now?

Heh.

 

[Crispy]

I didn't expect this:Be interesting to see how things shape up after the Pre launch....

Indeed. I also think that moving 12-month averages for sales will tell a more accurate picture. As that articles says, sales tend to boom and flatten in line with releases of new models. Apple and RIM were 6 months out of sync last year, so quaterly results aren't indicative of long-term trends.

 

[paolo]

I didn't expect this

I did.

I posted about it awhile back. If you manage to find Apple figures for Q2, you'll find Q3 was outlier. Obvious reasons. (edit: Crispy has it in one).

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I want to see whether anyone's buying the Storm in six months' time. My instinct has always been that it's doomed. RIM aren't going anywhere in general, the core Blackberries are very solid with a huge customer base, but I can see them dumping the Storm.

 

[g force]

Could be firms with money left over simply spending the IT budget on handsets for next year to avoid losing that cash! Can't believe that's all consumers boosting the RIM Q4 sales...if it was that would be very interesting...

 

[editor]

Indeed. I also think that moving 12-month averages for sales will tell a more accurate picture. As that articles says, sales tend to boom and flatten in line with releases of new models. Apple and RIM were 6 months out of sync last year, so quaterly results aren't indicative of long-term trends.

Sure, but I was beginning to think that Apple's consumer momentum was going to take them to a really dominant position while RIM were going to be put on the back foot.

It's all good for punters though - the more competition the better.

 

[Crispy]

Sure, but I was beginning to think that Apple's consumer momentum was going to take them to a really dominant position while RIM were going to be put on the back foot.

That may well still be the case. I'm saying that quarterly figures are too fine-grained to be able to track trends like that.

It's all good for punters though - the more competition the better.

too right. roll on the Pre! If it sells well, it'll force everyone to up their game.

 

[Sunray]

I think there is room for them all, if they are good enough.

These phones are fighting it out at the top end of the market.

At some point someone is going to take the current feature set we see on these phones. A feature set people would expect on high end phones and target the low end phone group, taking on Nokia, Sony and Samsung etc. The money isn't as big per handset but the sheer size of the market makes it a big money spinner.

Its going to happen, its a matter of who's going there 1st. I think Apple and the iPhone Nano.

 

[paolo]

Room for everything? Six or seven platforms? Can you think of any historic example to support that?

Maybe you can, but I'm struggling. Everything from home computers to consoles to the basic disk operating systems (DOS et al), it's always come down to just two or three players.

 

[editor]

Room for everything? Six or seven platforms? Can you think of any historic example to support that?

Maybe you can, but I'm struggling. Everything from home computers to consoles to the basic disk operating systems (DOS et al), it's always come down to just two or three players.

Well, you could argue that seeing as most phones do much the same thing and the public has little interest in what the OS is, it's not much different to, say, hi-fi, where you've had multiple manufacturers releasing similar products for years on end.

So long as all the various platforms continue to offer the functionality that the general public wants, then they'll keep on buying the model that suits their tastes and budget, regardless of what's running it.

 

[Sunray]

Well, you could argue that seeing as most phones do much the same thing and the public has little interest in what the OS is, it's not much different to, say, hi-fi, where you've had multiple manufacturers releasing similar products for years on end.

So long as all the various platforms continue to offer the functionality that the general public wants, then they'll keep on buying the model that suits their tastes and budget, regardless of what's running it.

Exactly.

Someone can release a total dog and word gets around, wave goodbye to that platform.

As long as they all keep up with the Jones so to speak, I'm fairly sure that the OS on its own isn't so important.

As long as the OS can use the hardware of the moment, well, phones will be defined by their h/w and software combination, all about specific phones rather than what OS that phone is running.

Dual core cpu's and high spec integrated graphics (Tegra) phones are on the horizon so we are seeing the (dead) megaherts hardware war of PC's, crank up in mobiles.

 

[paolo]

So you're saying that software availability or quality will never have any impact?

I believe it will*

* edit: I'm talking about high end phones here, not the 3210 type stuff.