Minimising BNP seats in London

[pingupete]

The LCA report http://www.londoncommunications.co.uk/html/hello.lasso gives a run down of likely outcome of the list vote. They suggest that UKIP might just pip the BNP to the last seat, writing at the time when the Lisbon Treaty was heavily covered in the media.

Since then the Lisbon Treaty has disappeared from the media, we've had immigration stories all over the place and the BNP have been given an election broadcast by the BBC apparently on the grounds that private polls show they have significant support.

I think London is going to wake up with 1 or 2 BNP members of the Assembly on the 2nd May. Postal votes go out today and tomorrow. Use your votes in the best anti-BNP way possible on the Assembly list, and vote for a party that will get over 5%, and let's hope they don't get a foothold.

If Barnbrook and another one gets in, Nick Griffin will get a big boost for next years Euro elections.

 

[JimPage]

The fascists are also opening up new areas in London. The North West and South West middle class suburbs are a target - I hear their has been a lot of activity in Kingston and Richmond recently (both Tory/Liberal marginals) and they see the middle classes being hit by especially hard by the upcoming recession.

Yes. One factor is that BNP are now formally organised in more parts of London than in 2004, with new groups in Harrow, Barnet, Wandsworth Greenwich and Richmond all running local campaigns, so expect them in unexpected places. And the minor point that they didnt have a local branch at all in 2004 in Barking,and now they do.

 

[d.a.s.h]

Does that reflect a growth in membership or a growth in confidence among existing members or both?

 

[KeyboardJockey]

Does that reflect a growth in membership or a growth in confidence among existing members or both?

From what I've seen its a bit of both.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Does that reflect a growth in membership or a growth in confidence among existing members or both?

Both plus a wider array of possible "fellow-travellers" (to use a very old and much-abused cliché) than previously.

 

[d.a.s.h]

Thanks to both of you above, your points seem reasonable. Would guess that the BNP has quite a high ratio of fellow travellers to members compared to other political organisations.

 

[PaulOK]

Yes. One factor is that BNP are now formally organised in more parts of London than in 2004, with new groups in Harrow, Barnet, Wandsworth Greenwich and Richmond all running local campaigns, so expect them in unexpected places. And the minor point that they didnt have a local branch at all in 2004 in Barking,and now they do.

Sometimes the media speak about the BNP as if they are a bunch of peudso-Marxists! I.E. They are obessed with Working class, and only working class, votes and support.

The BNP seek support across all social classes, and indeed the traditional Trot thesis is that parties like them primarily represent the embattled Middle Classes (never been totally convinced of that personally but there is a case for it) . Anyway, over the past decade some sections of the White WC have been listening to them and supporting them in fairly large numbers. Yes, they have won in some Middle Class wards but their support has been concentrated in working class areas. A sure sign that they have entered the mainstream is for them to establish themselves in middle class areas and win council seats there. This could prove problematic for traditional anti-Fascists. How do anti-Fascists campaign in middle class and even upper class areas? They can't use class based arguments and they could just end up sounding like a bunch of liberals, defending the staus quo, and even proposing voting for the Tories in order to keep the fascists out.

 

[PaulOK]

Generally, how is the antifascist campaign in London going. Is there much buzz about the Carnival in Victoria Park? Will it have much impact?

Hope not Hate are doing a lot of campaigning. Yes, their message is almost always a moralistic one " - don't vote BNP - they are not very nice people" - defend an increasingly untenable status-quo and their propaganda contains very little class analysis. However, at least they go door-to-door, are well funded and are doing 'something'.

The Anti-Racist carnival is a complete waste of time. It's the SWP yet again living in the past. It will attract a very young demographic, many of whom can't even vote, and will have no effect of the size of the BNP vote in the 1st (which will be very large). The SWP/UAF should realise that it's 2008, not 1978, and the strategy and tactics that applied then, don't apply today. The BNP work differently to the old NF and are more successful. The BNP have effectively ham-strung traditional anti-fascism. Anti-fascism better re-invent itself and quick.

 

[Dissident Junk]

Hummmm .... I don't know if minimising BNP seat in London should really be the focus now.

If one BNP candidate gets into the GLA, it's not going to have much effect: the London assembly is toothless, it has no power, it's a token seat.

What I would be seriously concerned about is the next general election.

And what I would say right now is that a massive swathe of old Labour votes are gone. And they've gone to the BNP. In many respects, it is just too late. Labour fucked up big style, it misunderstood its voters.

If you want to oust BNP votes, you are looking at persuading people to vote Tory instead of BNP -- that's the only way now.

The fucking disaster of this NULabour government is just that, a fucking disaster. Labour is dead. There needs to be a new party that speaks for the working asset-poor class. And Respect and the other types just don't cut the mustard nationally.

It's time to stop pissing in the wind. If no one puts forward 'a new hope', the BNP are going to pick up votes all over, and I can see a couple of BNP MPs in 2010.

 

[PaulOK]

......and I can see a couple of BNP MPs in 2010.

Possible but it will be very hard work for them! Winning a 'first past the post' would be a massive achievement and something akin to a political earthquake in this country. The establishment and the media would throw the book at them. Far more likely is that they will first run local councils and certainly get Euro-MP's elected. Paradoxically the more electorially successful they become, the more they could water down their policies and become a paler and paler version of Tyndall's 90's BNP - bit like Fini's National Alliance in Italy who enter government without anybody batting an eyelid. There are huge pressures inside the BNP between modernisers and traditionalists.

 

[JimPage]

Hope not Hate are doing a lot of campaigning. Yes, their message is almost always a moralistic one " - don't vote BNP - they are not very nice people" - defend an increasingly untenable status-quo and their propaganda contains very little class analysis. However, at least they go door-to-door, are well funded and are doing 'something'.

The Anti-Racist carnival is a complete waste of time. It's the SWP yet again living in the past. It will attract a very young demographic, many of whom can't even vote, and will have no effect of the size of the BNP vote in the 1st (which will be very large). The SWP/UAF should realise that it's 2008, not 1978, and the strategy and tactics that applied then, don't apply today. The BNP work differently to the old NF and are more successful. The BNP have effectively ham-strung traditional anti-fascism. Anti-fascism better re-invent itself and quick.

Thanks for this Paul. I would have hoped that the carnival would have been built on the level of the ones in the 70s- 100,000 strong etc- but if its going to be a few thousand true beleivers in a park, if anything it is a distraction from other, more effective antifascist campaigning

 

[JimPage]

Believe this or not, depending on how much you believe their propoganda.
BNP have just posted a claim on their website claiming to have printed- (and I assume have delivered/will be in a position to deliver), 900,000 supplimentary election leaflets for the GLA Election, in addition to their insert in the Mayoral election booklet. If this is anywhere near true, they will easily cover every ward where they polled over 10% in 2004. Some of the Archant group local papers continue to print adverts for them as well, reaching areas where they, quite sensibly, fear to tread

BNP Election broadcast on Monday- 6.55.

 

[The Black Hand]

Believe this or not, depending on how much you believe their propoganda.
BNP have just posted a claim on their website claiming to have printed- (and I assume have delivered/will be in a position to deliver), 900,000 supplimentary election leaflets for the GLA Election, in addition to their insert in the Mayoral election booklet. If this is anywhere near true, they will easily cover every ward where they polled over 10% in 2004. Some of the Archant group local papers continue to print adverts for them as well, reaching areas where they, quite sensibly, fear to tread

BNP Election broadcast on Monday- 6.55.

Yuk.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Yuk.

Just as "yuk" was opening the booklet setting out the views of various candidates and having to read Barnbrook's load of guff, then turning the page and having to read Lindsay German's load of old wank!

 

[KeyboardJockey]

Just as "yuk" was opening the booklet setting out the views of various candidates and having to read Barnbrook's load of guff, then turning the page and having to read Lindsay German's load of old wank!

Turd versus Turd IMHO.


<dons cynical grumpy old fucker hat >