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Mexican Election

phildwyer said:
The fact that its a Leftist who's been robbed. Trouble is, Obrador is now facing the perennial problem of "moderate" socialists, which is that people don't believe they'll make enough of a difference to be worth actually fighting for. Since their brand of socialism is largely defined by eschewing violence, they have no recourse when violence is used against them. People would fight for Chavez or Castro because they obviously do make a radical difference in people's lives, but they won't fight for Obrador.
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Quite.

Unless the authorities do something stupid...if the state decides to eventually go in against the protesters who will they use? Remember DF (and therefore the its police) are PRD controlled. The new mayor of the city is PRD and also the ex Chief of police here (which says a lot about the PRDs "leftist" credentials! AMLO is ex PRI)

Despite the panic of my middle class PANista colleagues, I personally think nowt much will happen after Septmeber 6th

Oaxaca on the other hand is a whole different matter...the insurgent teachers have now seized a dozen radio stations to back up their popular assembly....
 
just been in Mexico City`s zocalo with the protesters...will write it up later.

very interesting times indeed...
 
"Mexico leftist vows to form parallel government"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14561650/

While his party lacks the seats in Congress to block legislation, Lopez Obrador can mobilize millions to pressure his conservative rival to adopt the left’s agenda — or to clamp down and risk a backlash.

Both scenarios are possibilities as the former Mexico City mayor lays out plans to create his own government to rule from the streets, with the support of thousands who are already occupying protest camps throughout downtown Mexico City.

Some predict his parallel initiative — which Lopez Obrador’s supporters call the “legitimate government” — could turn those protest camps into the core of a violent revolt, especially if the government tries to shut it down.
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...This should be good fun...
 
niksativa said:
...This should be good fun...
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If Calderon's got any sense he'll adopt token bits of Obrador's agenda, bring as many PRD men as he can buy into government, and make loud speeches about governing for all the people. I don't think it will take much more than that to defuse the protests, hope I'm wrong.
 
phildwyer said:
If Calderon's got any sense he'll adopt token bits of Obrador's agenda, bring as many PRD men as he can buy into government, and make loud speeches about governing for all the people. I don't think it will take much more than that to defuse the protests, hope I'm wrong.
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Don't worry Phil - you probably are! The more the right squirm, the more radical the masses are getting according to the reports. They rightly view the PAN as illegitimate crooks, and they won't have anything to do with them. From the above article:

"Violence broke out in the southern city of Oaxaca after Gov. Ulises Ruiz sent police to evict striking teachers. Outraged citizens' groups joined the protests, setting fire to buildings and public buses, seizing radio and TV stations and forcing the closure of businesses in a city known throughout the world as a quaint tourist destination.

"Everything we do, from property taxes to permits to natural resources, will go through the 'legitimate government,'" said Severina Martinez, a school teacher from Oaxaca camped out in a tent in Mexico City's main Zocalo plaza. "We won't have anything to do with the official government."
 
Report from the Zocalo

We visited the Zocalo at the weekend to say hello...

The city centre here is rammed with protesters, but its not like yer usual demo thing. The closest I can think of is a bit like the old protest camps of the anti-roads movement. only with absolutely no hippies and huge numbers of ordinary folk instead.

Very chilled atmosphere. People sat around watching TV, playing chess, bands playing, cooking etc.

All kindsa people involved. The poor were there in large numbers from the barrios and shanties around the federal district. So too were students, middle class leftists, and workers and peasants organisations. but mostly just ordinary community groups from the poorer parts of the country.

Everywhere you went were posters, tshirts, banners, stickers etc. denouncing the the "pinche fraude" and the "dickhead Calderon" (who is fast becoming nicknamed "Fecal" (heh heh after Felipe Calderon heh heh)


I`m now the proud though bemused owner of a Communist Party of Mexico (Marxist-Leninist) Tshirt from the odd yet huge marketplace of political souvenirs going amongst the tent city.

meanwhile the rich are panicking some more.

traffic is terrible around the city as commuters blame the protests fro messing up the roads...though my suspicion is that its just a competition amongst them to see who can have the biggest moan - "I have to leave 30 minutes earlier now cos of those bastards" (true quote from a friend of mine).

The army are due to parade down one of the blockaded streets soon. Will the protesters move? Could be the first of many flashpoints to come.

Meanwhile Oaxaca continues to create its own revolution. 55% percent of the Chiapas electorate boycott the gubernatorial elections in support of the EZLN and Guerrero, Michoacan and Mexico states are reportedly on the brink of a oaxaca style explosion.

The official declaratio is that there has been no fraud. in a few days we can expect the election of Fecal to be confirmed. What happens next is anyones guess??
 
guelagtza-uro_8-26-06.jpg


Oaxaca City SlideShow: Un Pueblo Unido Avanza Sin Partidos
...or check photos as jpegs, without the big download.

http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2006/09/349832.html

well, they've certainly managed to graff up the place, if nothing else.
 
I was talking to some Mexicans about the Fox speech last night, they found it hilarious. I admit that the situation seems more hopeful than I thought it would a couple of weeks ago, but not being there its very hard to get a sense of what the potential outcomes might be. From here, I'd say that Oaxaca looks like the one to watch. What's happening in Chiapas?

http://www.counterpunch.com/salzman08302006.html
 
wandering around the pueblos of the estado de mexico at the weekend showed everything calm...but strong backing for obrador.

wait till the 15th / 16th. Fox`s grito in the zocalo sure to be disrupted. The following day`s military paarde down reforma (currently occupied by protesers) a more likely flash point.

In Chiapas the PRD gubernatorial candidate has distanced himself from Obrador. But then over 50% boycotted his election down there anyway. I doubt they have any faith in the PRD these days.
 
...meanwhile, the people in the state of Michoacan have set up a popular assembly modeled on the one in Oaxaca. There is tension on the Yucatan, taxi drivers patrolling the streets to defend the free press from attacks by paramilitaries (similar to what happened in Oaxaca a few weeks back). These initiatives could provide Obradors proposed parralell govt (or national democratic convention) some kinda basis in reality.

things are moving fast here.

fingers crossed it doesn`t collapse into the old patterns of the dirty war.
 
chilango said:
wandering around the pueblos of the estado de mexico at the weekend showed everything calm...but strong backing for obrador.
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I took a couple of pictures of a rally of his when I was over there in March, it's good to see them keeping going.
 
Obrador's impressed me by the way he's handling this. I thought he'd have given up or cut a deal by now. The Mexican state has never been very strong, and has dwindled to insignificance in places like Oaxaca and Chiapas. I don't know how much US intervention is even possible given their commitments elsewhere, and any such intervention could seriously backfire given Mexico's historically fraught relations with el norte. This does look like it could be big, I hope I'll be eating my words about Mexican passivity soon.
 
FeCal has been declared president elect...though it has been ruled that Fox and several corporations broke the law with the PAN campaign. Obrador has refused to accept this ruling and is setting up a "National Democratic Convention" on Sep 16th (same day as the military parade mentioned above).

Meanwhile the latest I´ve heard from Oaxaca is that they have tried to move the state admin to another town, but failed cos of resisitance there....
 
chilango said:
FeCal has been declared president elect...though it has been ruled that Fox and several corporations broke the law with the PAN campaign. Obrador has refused to accept this ruling and is setting up a "National Democratic Convention" on Sep 16th (same day as the military parade mentioned above).
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So what are the chances of the demonstrators in DF getting a whiff of grapeshot on the 16th? Are any of them armed?
 
niksativa said:
...can you feel the tension?
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No I bloody can't. The media here in the USA would have you believe that Mexicans are all sitting under palm trees munching tacos and drinking tequila as per usual. You'd never guess a revolution was brewing south of the border. I hear its the same in the UK.
 
phildwyer said:
What do you mean?
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Well, there's no signs of immenant revolution - or even distant revolution - in the UK.

EDIT to add: Oh, hang on, I think I might have misunderstood your post. Were you refering to the UK media's reporting of Mexico? In which case, yeah, you're right.
 
poster342002 said:
Well, there's no signs of immenant revolution - or even distant revolution - in the UK.
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No, I meant that there is little reporting of the Mexican crisis in the UK media.
 
phildwyer said:
So what are the chances of the demonstrators in DF getting a whiff of grapeshot on the 16th? Are any of them armed?
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I didn`t see any arms yet.

...though guns aren`t hard to come by, they are stressing the peaceful nature of the revolution (yes, people have started using the "R" word).

Depends on the military parade I guess at the moment.

Though of course in places like Oaxaca, Guerrero, Chiapas etc the guns have been out on both sides for time now.
 
chilango said:
I didn`t see any arms yet.

...though guns aren`t hard to come by, they are stressing the peaceful nature of the revolution (yes, people have started using the "R" word).

Depends on the military parade I guess at the moment.

Though of course in places like Oaxaca, Guerrero, Chiapas etc the guns have been out on both sides for time now.
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Yes. I suspect that most Mexicans have easy access to guns if they need them. And they just might be needing them now.
 
I think there is a certain calm before the storm - the next step must have been considered already, but would need careful execution.

It looks like the strategy is to make an "alternative government from the streets" - I think it is unlikley that Obrador will get his hands on official power until the next election, however he clearly has a lot of momentum behind him.

The idea of parralel government is a fascinating one and will be interesting to see how it can undermine and run in parrallel to "the powers that be".

Is there a precedent for his kind of parrallel government? Hezbollah maybe?
 
phildwyer said:
No, I meant that there is little reporting of the Mexican crisis in the UK media.
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Not a great deal, but then it's not yet a huge story. "Contested Latin American election" isn't terribly novel. A new government in the same territory, that would be something.
 
slaar said:
Not a great deal, but then it's not yet a huge story. "Contested Latin American election" isn't terribly novel. A new government in the same territory, that would be something.
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The UK media wet it's collective knickers in orgiastic delight when the exact same thing happened in Ukraine.
 
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