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Mearsheimer on why the US is in trouble

Protag

Protag

Fan of think
First post. Yay :D

Some think, in the last few days Mearsheimer has expressed his view concerning the latest debacle in the Middle East:



Mearsheimer is fun. I agree that US is in the mire, and I don't see a way out at this point. The US political duopoly seems to be committed to - what Mearsheimer calls - 'liberal hegemony'.
 
Serge Forward said:
Welcome to the boards Protag. I don't know Mearsheimer but I'd appreciate a bit of info on him, and why I should invest nearly 40 minutes of my time watching a meeting convened by a right wing Australian think tank.
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Makes a change from Austrians and their dismal science, I suppose.
 
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AI video summary

00:00:00 - 00:35:00​

In this section of the transcript, John Mearsheimer explains the importance of the quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog narrative in American foreign policy. He argues that it is essential to provide clarity and direction in foreign policy to overcome the challenges faced by the United States. He also discusses the impact of Russia and China on American foreign policy and global stability.

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  • 00:00:00 In this section, John Mearsheimer argues that the United States is losing focus on its primary threat, which is the rise of China. He suggests that the country's current involvement in the Ukraine war and the conflict between Hamas and Israel is preventing it from pivoting fully to Asia, where it faces the external threat from China. Mearsheimer highlights the unipolar moment, a period from 1989 to 2017 when the United States was the only great power on the planet. However, he notes that this era has since ended, and the world is now a multi-polar system with three great powers: the United States, China, and Russia. He suggests that China is the real threat to the United States and that Russia is the weakest of the three great powers.

  • 00:05:00 In this section of the transcript, John Mearsheimer discusses the importance of the Persian Gulf in American grand strategy. He explains that historically, the United States has cared about Europe the most, but with China's rise as a peer competitor in East Asia, that has changed. Mearsheimer argues that East Asia is now the most important area of the world for the United States and advocates for a pivot to that region. Mearsheimer also touches on the challenges that the United States faces in Ukraine and the Middle East, noting that the situation in both regions is likely to worsen in the future. He cautions that the Russians and Chinese are tightly allied, which is not in the United States' interest. Overall, Mearsheimer suggests that the United States is in trouble because it has lost focus on its Foreign policy and its involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East makes it difficult to pivot to East Asia.

  • 00:10:00 The US pressure on Russia to accept the expansion of NATO into Ukraine became a significant contributing factor to the current Ukraine-Russia conflict. The Americans had brought Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into NATO in 1999, followed by Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Slovakia in 2004. Ukraine and Georgia were then brought into the alliance in 2008. However, Russia saw the expansion of NATO as clearly against its interests, and Putin made it clear in 2008 that he would destroy Ukraine before it became a member of the alliance. The Americans continued to push EU expansion and color revolutions in Ukraine, which angered the Russians, ultimately leading to the crisis in 2014 and 2022 when the Russians took Crimea, began a civil war in Donbass, and launched a military campaign in Ukraine that continues to this day.

  • 00:15:00 In this section of the transcript excerpt, the speaker discusses the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The speaker points out that Russia has a significant advantage in terms of population size, artillery, and tanks. They argue that Ukraine has an industrial base that allows them to produce large amounts of artillery, but the population ratio in their favor is only 5 to 1, with the artillery ratio estimated to be between 5 to 1 and 10 to 1 in Russia's favor. The speaker believes that Ukraine cannot improve their position in a war of attrition and that the Russians will instead try to turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state. They argue that the fighting in Ukraine will never end and that there will be a frozen conflict, similar to the situation on the Korean peninsula. The speaker also suggests that this conflict could have the potential to escalate.

  • 00:20:00 In this section, John Mearsheimer discusses the United States' involvement in Ukraine and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. He points out that the two countries are closely tied and it is hard for the United States to distance itself from Israel. The taproot of the problems in both of these situations, according to Mearsheimer, is the Israel-Palestine conflict, which the United States has been deeply interested in resolving. However, he believes that the two-state solution has failed, and the Israeli government now wants "greater Israel" that includes the West Bank, Gaza, and 1967 Israel or the green line.

  • 00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video, John Mearsheimer discusses the Israeli- Palestinian conflict and the issue of a two-state solution. He notes that there is approximately equal numbers of Palestinians and Israeli Jews in Greater Israel, and that the Israeli government does not want to give equal rights to the Palestinians because it would endanger the Jewish identity of Israel if there were more Palestinians than Jews in the country. He also notes that the population demographics are increasingly favorable to the Palestinians, with more Palestinians being born than Jews, and adds that Israel controls the borders and air space around Gaza, which is often referred to as "the largest open air prison in the world." Mearsheimer argues that the Israeli government's stance on the issue has led to a situation where the Palestinians will continue to erupt and rise up against Israel, as they are seeking their own nation-state just as the Jews sought theirs. Mearsheimer also notes that many international organizations, including American presidents, have put pressure on Israel to accept a two-state solution, but Israel has not agreed due to the political center of gravity in Israel moving to the right. He also claims that Israel has been labeled as an apartheid state by human rights organization, such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Bet Selum.

  • 00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video, John Mearsheimer discusses the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and how it is connected to other global issues, such as the Russia-China relationship and the global South. Mearsheimer argues that the only hope of settling the conflict between the Palestinians and Jews is a two-state solution, but this solution is not feasible given the current political climate in Israel and the Middle East. Mearsheimer states that the United States has already been involved in the conflict, as it sent an aircraft carrier battle group off the coast of Israel to shoot down cruise missiles. He also discusses how Russia and China support the Palestinians and criticize the United States for failing to produce a diplomatic solution. Mearsheimer believes that this conflict has significant implications for global stability and the diplomatic position of the United States.

  • 00:35:00 In this section, John Mearsheimer discusses his views on the current state of the United States, arguing that the Biden Administration's biggest threat is China. However, he notes that the US is pinned down in the Middle East and Ukraine, meaning that it cannot fully pivot to Asia to deal with the Chinese threat. He also criticizes US policies in Eastern Europe, stating that Russia, who should be on the US's side, has been pushed away from the country because of these policies. Finally, he points out the decline of the rules-based order that the US has played a key role in establishing, over the past few decades, as a result of Ukraine, the Middle East, and other forms of behavior.
 
Except The China he is talking about (Aussie audience is bound to prioritise Pacific)..has more warships in the Gulf than US does at moment, Has managed to improve relations between Saudi and Iran , both are looking at joining BRICs. More over US has gone so far as asking China to ask Iran to dial things down a bit
 
Some good bits on artillery though both NATO and Russia have eaten through through stockpiles (Russia Ukraine shells per day now about the same and much lower rate than earlier in the war. Both NATO and Russia gearing up production though
 
The fact people talk about The Pivot to Asia like it's a perfectly normal and justifiable thing for any country to swan it's military thousands of miles away is everything that's wrong with world ... The fact this guy is encouraging it says a lot about his version of Realism
 
ska invita said:
The fact people talk about The Pivot to Asia like it's a perfectly normal and justifiable thing for any country to swan it's military thousands of miles away is everything that's wrong with world ... The fact this guy is encouraging it says a lot about his version of Realism
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Agreed. My own view is that realism is an excellent analytical tool for understanding state conflict, and cutting through the 15 layers of bullshit when it comes to geopolitical issues. But encouraging some military stand-off with China is somewhat reckless, especially because of the existence of nuclear weapons. Encouraging a military response to a few rocks in the South China Sea or to Taiwan (which is fact a part of China) is a bit wacky.

Because China is likely to overtake the US economically, it would be more beneficial, even in terms of realistic logic, for the US to concentrate on economic strengthening and not on endless warmongering.
 
He's not keen on talking about his meeting with Viktor Orban. This interview also gives some insight into his thinking, or lack of it, over Russia and Ukraine: New Yorker.

His book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics is excellent, but with Ukraine it's like he is trying to make the situation fit his theory rather than the other way around (in fact he has stated that rather than being an analytical tool, he sees realism as prescriptive).

This has been posted elsewhere, but does a god job of showing his weakness regarding Ukraine: Munk Debate - Russia-Ukraine.
 
petee said:
a west point grad and former air force officer with a tenured position at Chicago is the political establishment.
that he went up against AIPAC doesn't affect that one bit.
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I suggest you scrutinise the reception he gets more closely: both Washington Democrats and Republicans really hate him. But if you want to dismiss him on the basis of his antecedents fair enough: no doubt Tony Benn was dismissed in the same way by some too. It is precisely because Mearsheimer is no Leftist that he is interesting. But, as I said, dismiss away…
 
Nikkormat said:
He's not keen on talking about his meeting with Viktor Orban. This interview also gives some insight into his thinking, or lack of it, over Russia and Ukraine: New Yorker.

His book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics is excellent, but with Ukraine it's like he is trying to make the situation fit his theory rather than the other way around (in fact he has stated that rather than being an analytical tool, he sees realism as prescriptive).

This has been posted elsewhere, but does a god job of showing his weakness regarding Ukraine: Munk Debate - Russia-Ukraine.
Click to expand...
And what about his 2014 Ukraine stuff? I am certainly not saying he is an oracle, but at least his hands are not soaked in blood like Biden and his lapdog Starmer
 
Nikkormat said:
He's not keen on talking about his meeting with Viktor Orban. This interview also gives some insight into his thinking, or lack of it, over Russia and Ukraine: New Yorker.

His book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics is excellent, but with Ukraine it's like he is trying to make the situation fit his theory rather than the other way around (in fact he has stated that rather than being an analytical tool, he sees realism as prescriptive).

This has been posted elsewhere, but does a god job of showing his weakness regarding Ukraine: Munk Debate - Russia-Ukraine.
Click to expand...
I am guessing the New Yorker and Michael McFaul will be echoing standard shitlib positions, unsurprisingly. I did watch the McFaul debate at the time but I have forgotten what went down. I will watch again when I have time.
 
Protag said:
Agreed. My own view is that realism is an excellent analytical tool for understanding state conflict, and cutting through the 15 layers of bullshit when it comes to geopolitical issues. But encouraging some military stand-off with China is somewhat reckless, especially because of the existence of nuclear weapons. Encouraging a military response to a few rocks in the South China Sea or to Taiwan (which is fact a part of China) is a bit wacky.

Because China is likely to overtake the US economically, it would be more beneficial, even in terms of realistic logic, for the US to concentrate on economic strengthening and not on endless warmongering.
Click to expand...

holy shit.
 
Protag said:
Encouraging a military response to a few rocks in the South China Sea or to Taiwan (which is fact a part of China) is a bit wacky.
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No it isn't. Beijing has no practical sovereignty over Taiwan and people in Taiwan don't want to be part of China. It is part of China only in the sense that North Korea is part of South Korea and vice versa, but in fact much more tenuous than that.
 
Rimbaud said:
No it isn't. Beijing has no practical sovereignty over Taiwan and people in Taiwan don't want to be part of China. It is part of China only in the sense that North Korea is part of South Korea and vice versa, but in fact much more tenuous than that.
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That's historically ignorant. It is basically a civil war that never ended.
 
Rimbaud said:
No it isn't.

www.japantimes.co.jp

The Chinese century is already over

China’s gap between its declining demographic and economic strength and expanding strategic ambitions now constitutes a major geopolitical risk.
www.japantimes.co.jp www.japantimes.co.jp
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So basically the US should just chill out and hand all control to the banks? All states will have their ups and downs, and no-one knows the future for sure. But for realist logic, China is a 'competitor'.
 
Protag said:
That's historically ignorant. It is basically a civil war that never ended.
Click to expand...
That's historically ignorant.

The KMT are polling as a third party these days and they arrived in Taiwan as essentially an occupying force and were not welcomed, they were widely considered by the locals to be worse than the Japanese. Taiwan was governed as part of Japan for 50 years before the KMT arrived and the KMT arrivals are a minority. Even before it was annexed by Japan, it had a rather vague and distant relationship to mainland China.
 
Rimbaud said:
That's historically ignorant.

The KMT are polling as a third party these days and they arrived in Taiwan as essentially an occupying force and were not welcomed, they were widely considered by the locals to be worse than the Japanese. Taiwan was governed as part of Japan for 50 years before the KMT arrived and the KMT arrivals are a minority. Even before it was annexed by Japan, it had a rather vague and distant relationship to mainland China.
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Maybe the One China Policy was a figment of my imagination. That is certainly possible.
 
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