McCain Versus Obama

[Johnny Canuck3]

How do you figure?

Because the popular vote doesn't mean much in the final analysis. You could have a 52-48 split between the candidates, but with the winner taking all the electoral votes. The whole map would be one colour.

I'm saying that at the end of the day, the map will be predominantly red.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

I don't understand what you mean by this.

I mean that even with just democrats doing the voting, he can't get a commanding lead. His party is divided. But the republicans are united against him.

 

[Detroit City]

Obama really hasn't been "tested" fully yet...that will happen after he gets the nomination and has to fight it out with McCain...

then we'll see what he's made of

 

[exleper]

Some reasons why Obama will probably win.

- He leads McCain by a comfortable lead in most of the polls, and has done for some time (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/7360265.stm)
- He will easily raise more campaign funds than McCain, as the primary season has shown. Obama has raised record amounts online; McCain nearly dropped out last year due to lack of funds.
- Obama has less skeletons; McCain's Keating Five scandal is starting to be revisited at the moment (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five).
- The Republicans are not behind McCain like they were behind Bush - the Christian right won't be out in force as they were in 2004.
- McCain is strongly associated with Bush, who may turn out to be the most unpopular president in history (current approval rating: 28%).
- The primary season has seen record numbers of Democrats voting, Republicans defecting to Democrats (although admittedly some of these were attempting to sabotage the vote), and in some primaries Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 2 to 1. In other words, the Democrats will be out in force in November.
- It is the natural cycle of democracy that voters become tired with a sitting administration and look to a fresh face - as we can see happening here in the UK with New Labour's demise and the Tories recent success.
- McCain is a strong supporter of an deeply unpopular, unsuccessful and seemingly endless war; Obama was against it from the beginning, a pretty strong point.
- As the old maxim goes, the people vote based on the price of bread. And with the US economy getting worse before it gets better, voters will attribute this to reckless Republican economic policies and see the Democrats as the answer.

In other words, it seems to me to be very unlikely that John McCain will be President. I really don't think race is much of an issue, even if the media likes to make it one. The racists who would never vote for a black person would provably never vote for a Democrat, either. And Obama's been put through his paces with Clinton's negative campaigning and came through it fairly dignified; so he's probably well-equipped by now. A safe bet at the bookies.

 

[Detroit City]

I really don't think race is much of an issue, even if the media likes to make it one.

racism is alive and well in the good old US of A...it's just more covert now

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

I really don't think race is much of an issue, even if the media likes to make it one. .

Have you ever been to the US?

 

[exleper]

on a sidenote - an Obama-Clinton 'dream ticket' would be a bad idea. They've spent the past eighteen months trying to paint themselves as ideologically opposed to one another (even though this isn't really the case of course); I think it would be tricky to repair the wounds here and a much safer to go for a white Southerner, to 'redress the balance' so to speak.

 

[exleper]

Have you ever been to the US?

No I haven't, and I don't claim to know even the slightest bit about American politics, being an Englishman who's never left Europe and gets all his information from the internet. I could be dead wrong here. But I genuinely don't think race is a major issue here. It's going to play a part, of course, and I'm aware that there will be a sizable part of the population who will vote based on race. But I find it unlikely that Obama's skin colour is going to swing it either way. If he loses from anything, I'd imagine it would be due to inept campaigning from the Democrats, and aggressive negative campaigning from the GOP, which is largely how the last two elections turned out.

 

[frogwoman]

i'd lose a lot of respect for obama if he decided to choose *her* as a running mate.

i think a lot of americans would to..
and he knows it.

john edwards is better.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

No I haven't, and I don't claim to know even the slightest bit about American politics, being an Englishman who's never left Europe and gets all his information from the internet. I could be dead wrong here. But I genuinely don't think race is a major issue here. It's going to play a part, of course, and I'm aware that there will be a sizable part of the population who will vote based on race. But I find it unlikely that Obama's skin colour is going to swing it either way. If he loses from anything, I'd imagine it would be due to inept campaigning from the Democrats, and aggressive negative campaigning from the GOP, which is largely how the last two elections turned out.

Race is always a big issue in the US.

 

[MightyAphrodite]

i'd lose a lot of respect for obama if he decided to choose *her* as a running mate.

i think a lot of americans would to..
and he knows it.

john edwards is better.

yes....i really hope he chooses edwards....REALLY.

people can say what they like but edwards is a likeable character...he also 'looks presidential' or at least vice !!!....

 

[DotCommunist]

No I haven't, and I don't claim to know even the slightest bit about American politics, being an Englishman who's never left Europe and gets all his information from the internet. I could be dead wrong here. But I genuinely don't think race is a major issue here. It's going to play a part, of course, and I'm aware that there will be a sizable part of the population who will vote based on race. But I find it unlikely that Obama's skin colour is going to swing it either way. If he loses from anything, I'd imagine it would be due to inept campaigning from the Democrats, and aggressive negative campaigning from the GOP, which is largely how the last two elections turned out.

race is intrinsicly tied with politics in america. You don't need to visit to work that out, just look to the history.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

I'd like to see him choose the Rev Al Sharpton.

 

[exleper]

Race is always a big issue in the US.

well, thanks for deconstructing my argument, point by point.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

well, thanks for deconstructing my argument, point by point.

But in the context, there is only one argument. You say that you don't think that race is much of an issue.

 

[exleper]

But in the context, there is only one argument. You say that you don't think that race is much of an issue.

read my post - I say it will certainly play its part, but it won't swing the election. If we're arguing over semantics here then fine, race is an issue. I'm not denying the existence or importance of racial politics. I'm saying there are bigger things that will determine the results, and prejudice in America has made extraordinary leaps in the last 40 years. I think it's impressive that a previously unknown black candidate is able to beat an established white candidate in the party primaries.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

read my post - I say it will certainly play its part, but it won't swing the election. If we're arguing over semantics here then fine, race is an issue. I'm not denying the existence or importance of racial politics. I'm saying there are bigger things that will determine the results, and prejudice in America has made extraordinary leaps in the last 40 years. I think it's impressive that a previously unknown black candidate is able to beat an established white candidate in the party primaries.

I know what you're saying. You're saying that people will see his colour, but look past it, to his policies, his leadership.

I'm disagreeing. I'm saying they will listen to his policies, but the final go/no go decision will be based on his colour for many people.

Believe me, I truly hope that it isn't that way. If Obama becomes president, it means that the uphill part of the battle is over, and we're on the downslope now. It will mean that there has been a welcome and long overdue sea change in the american psyche.

I'm not holding my breath, but I hope very much that I'm wrong.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

I have little doubt that if he were white, he would be the next president. He has a charisma about him, a sense of leadership. He'd be another Kennedy if he were white.

But he's not.

 

[Yossarian]

I
I'm disagreeing. I'm saying they will listen to his policies, but the final go/no go decision will be based on his colour for many people.

It might be a close thing but I think the Bradley effect/Dinkins effect will be getting renamed 'the Obama effect' after November.

Seems like it's the whole nomination process that's going to mean the Democrats lose this time around - Hillary Clinton's probably not going to get the nomination despite winning states like Ohio that will be crucial in the general election, while Obama's lead over Clinton comes from wins in states like Virginia, Utah, and Alabama that haven't backed a Democrat for president in decades and are unlikely to suddenly start doing so with Obama.

 

[derf]

I look for John McCain to be the next US president.

I can only hope that with so many years of a twat in the white house that the US people have worked out that Bush Mk 3 "we are just about to turn the corner in Iraq" instant chip sounding men are a bad idea.

I don't give a fuck what colour Obama is I still think he's a man with nothing to prove against the "enemies" of the US and so has the best chance of being able to sort the mess out.
Besides that if he grew up in Indonesia he will have started life well. People here tend to have a good attitude to others.

 

[santa klaus]

Race is always a big issue in the US.

Who would have thought in 1979 that Republicans would ever vote for a divorced, ex-Democrat, second-rate actor?

 

[agricola]

The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should,” he said. But, “I’ve got Greenspan’s book,” not exactly confidence inspiring. However he is running (last I seen) on the idea of tax cuts for business.

No offence, but when your About link contains evidence that he is not running on the idea of tax cuts for business then it kind of devalues the rest of your point.

You are right however that his economic plans will not light a fire under right wing supporters - despite the moronic claims about him being rightwing, or close to Bush (especially your own claim about him being responsible for the economy over the past 8 years), it is very clear to anyone (or at least it should be) he is neither of these things.

Obhamas economics may not be better to an economist but it sounds better to many Americans. He is more protectionist and sounds more hawkish on taxing the rich than McCain. That is what Americans want to hear. That and that there is a social security safety net underneath them.

"Sounds better" is not the same as "better", as should be obvious, and (as McCain has noted) mixing protectionism and the US rarely works out for the best, either for the US or the rest of the world.

 

[david dissadent]

(especially your own claim about him being responsible for the economy over the past 8 years),

On a less detailed point he is vaulnrable of guilt by association of the republican handling of the economy over the past 8 years.

Guilt by association is rather different to saying he was responsible for the economy.

 

[CRI]

A couple weeks back, I was in the "heartland" (rural Midwest - it's where I grew up actually) and it was interesting to get a sense of where people are on the forthcoming elections. Confused, anxious and jaded pretty well sums it up!

IMHO, Obama's ethnicity WILL be a factor. Racism IS alive and well amongst many blue-collar voters, especially in predominately white, rural areas, but also in urban areas that are still racially polarised. In the past, Democrats could count on their votes unquestionably. Not sure about that now. It will be interesting to see. Ongoing bickering between Clinton and Obama I feel has only made Democrats anxious and pissed off.

McCain's an odd choice for the GOP nominee. He has few fans on the far right of the party and amongst fundamentalist Christians, but IMHO, the Republican Party have always been more successful at whipping the "faithful" to vote a straight GOP ticket. Reagan didn't fit the identikit, but they backed him.

Who McCain picks as a running mate is crucial, not just for whether wavering Democrats will hold their noses and vote for him. He's 70 years old and has a history of poor health. If elected, there's every chance the VP will get a turn at the top job. My octegenarian mother is a bit of a conspiracy theorist but she pointed out that Jeb Bush has been keeping his head down since finishing his 2nd term (you can only serve 2) as Florida Governor in 2006. Hmmmmmmm.

 

[agricola]

A couple weeks back, I was in the "heartland" (rural Midwest - it's where I grew up actually) and it was interesting to get a sense of where people are on the forthcoming elections. Confused, anxious and jaded pretty well sums it up!

IMHO, Obama's ethnicity WILL be a factor. Racism IS alive and well amongst many blue-collar voters, especially in predominately white, rural areas, but also in urban areas that are still racially polarised. In the past, Democrats could count on their votes unquestionably. Not sure about that now. It will be interesting to see. Ongoing bickering between Clinton and Obama I feel has only made Democrats anxious and pissed off.

McCain's an odd choice for the GOP nominee. He has few fans on the far right of the party and amongst fundamentalist Christians, but IMHO, the Republican Party have always been more successful at whipping the "faithful" to vote a straight GOP ticket. Reagan didn't fit the identikit, but they backed him.

Who McCain picks as a running mate is crucial, not just for whether wavering Democrats will hold their noses and vote for him. He's 70 years old and has a history of poor health. If elected, there's every chance the VP will get a turn at the top job. My octegenarian mother is a bit of a conspiracy theorist but she pointed out that Jeb Bush has been keeping his head down since finishing his 2nd term (you can only serve 2) as Florida Governor in 2006. Hmmmmmmm.

I would be as amazed as it is possible to be with US politics if any Bush was McCain's running-mate, but it does seem as if there isnt a clear candidate for him to pick. I just hope its not Romney or Huckabee.

 

[dilute micro]

Because the popular vote doesn't mean much in the final analysis. You could have a 52-48 split between the candidates, but with the winner taking all the electoral votes. The whole map would be one colour.

I'm saying that at the end of the day, the map will be predominantly red.

You said, "I think McCain will slaughter Obama at the polls."

That's not the electoral college.

 

[CRI]

I would be as amazed as it is possible to be with US politics if any Bush was McCain's running-mate, but it does seem as if there isnt a clear candidate for him to pick. I just hope its not Romney or Huckabee.

Well, I did say my mum's a conspiracy theorist, and has become more radical with age. At one point, I suspected she might train in guerilla tactics and try to take out GWB. Who'd suspect a sweet little old lady, eh?

Just think the GOP running mate is one to watch closely as will be the heir apparant if McCain succeeds.

 

[frogwoman]

It won't be hucakabee I dont think. McCain isn't a fan of religious fundamentalists and has tdistanced himself from them.

If it is huckabee, then that will be the end of the republican party for eight years ...

 

[dilute micro]

It won't be hucakabee I dont think. McCain isn't a fan of religious fundamentalists and has tdistanced himself from them.

If it is huckabee, then that will be the end of the republican party for eight years ...

Exactly.

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

Who would have thought in 1979 that Republicans would ever vote for a divorced, ex-Democrat, second-rate actor?

Who was that: was he a black guy?

And I don't mean his hair.