Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Make 1 political (serious) forcast for 2008

Barking_Mad said:
anyone for a large city in the world suffering a meltdown more serious than New Orleans due to a natural disaster or some sort of water shortage?

Los Angeles is living on borrowed time water-wise. Anyone would think a desert was god's way of saying "live somewhere else" :rolleyes:
 
SpookyFrank said:
Los Angeles is living on borrowed time water-wise. Anyone would think a desert was god's way of saying "live somewhere else" :rolleyes:

Anyone would think anywhere at the latitude of the UK was God'd way of saying "live somewhere else" - people are funny like that.
 
I think if food prices (UK) continue to rise at the same rate they have for the last few months, then this could be a flashpoint.
 
yield said:
$100 oil.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7168664.stm

Oil has traded at $100 a barrel for the first time.
Violence in Nigeria, Algeria and Pakistan, the weak US dollar and the threat of cold weather have all raised prices after the new year break.

Light sweet crude rose $4.02 to $100 a barrel in New York, prompting a drop in shares and a surge in gold prices


:D Fastest correct prediction goes to...............
 
Times like this I'm glad I have no car. Just like, when the economy goes down the bog, I'll be glad I haven't got a penny and so have lost nothing :)
 
i suspect that the maerican election will go one of two ways- barack obama will win (by far the best of a bad bunch) or that twat fuckabee. i have a bad feeling about him.
 
breasticles said:
i suspect that the maerican election will go one of two ways- barack obama will win (by far the best of a bad bunch) or that twat fuckabee. i have a bad feeling about him.

I feel it's really quite important that Dubya continues to fuck everything up in his remaining months in office, so that he buries the republicans completely for the next election and hopefully beyond.

Not sure about which democrat I like the look of, they're all pretty off key in one way or another but I reckon Obama might be the least evil option available.
 
I think Obama will get in and basically be their Blair. I've seen him in interviews and he exudes confidence. Of course everyone will focus on the fact that he's black, because "Oh golly, gosh, lookie we gon and dun elected a black man as pres eeh durnt, Muma" and completely ignore whether he's actually any good at his job or not.

Which will probably get him through to a second term.

Other than that, the first two days of the New Year will pass off without major incident.

Also, what's all this about rising food prices? Is it just because the price of oil is going up?
 
stupid kid said:
Also, what's all this about rising food prices? Is it just because the price of oil is going up?
There are a number of reasons. There has been major droughts in America and Australia affecting those countries wheat production, although not all that much on at the end of the day. China and India have rapidly increasing wealth, which is funding a change in diets for them, towards more meat and wheat intense diets. Meat diets use up one hell of alot of crops to sustain. And president Bush in his ulitmate wisdom has descided that corn based biofuels are the solution to the US's middle east energy dependency so is lavishing vast funds on subsidies for corn to ethanol. This has led to a scarcity of corn on the market, supply and demand means that price goes up. Alot. In Chinas specific case there has also been a pig disease this year that has hit pork numbers so they are experiancing a bit of cost increases on that as well. A confluence of factors that has seen the cost of staples double in a year. Not a big problem if your wealthy and food counts for about 5% of your expeniture. But if your a peasant somewhere it can see it doubling from 33% to 66% of your income. That is placing the risk of starvation.

The world food stocks are also falling very rapidly,

At the same time, reserves of cereals are severely depleted, FAO records show. World wheat stores declined 11 percent this year, to the lowest level since 1980. That corresponds to 12 weeks of the world's total consumption - much less than the average of 18 weeks consumption in storage during the period 2000-2005. There are only 8 weeks of corn left, down from 11 weeks in the earlier period.

Prices of wheat and oilseeds are at record highs, Diouf said Monday. Wheat prices have risen by $130 per ton, or 52 percent, since a year ago. U.S. wheat futures broke $10 a bushel for the first time Monday, the agricultural equivalent of $100 a barrel oil. (Page 16)
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/17/europe/food.php

Agriculture accounts for about 20% of the energy consumption of industrialised countries. So it is very energy intense and costs are skyrocketing so that also plays a factor. There is a very very unplesant theory related to Liebegs law. Basicaly the sustainable size of a population is governed by its the least available essential resource. As we are so dependent on hydrocarbons for food production post the green revolution that the steady decline of cheap and available hydrocarbons will be what causes our population to constrict. Global mass starvation. But I guess that is another thread really.
 
SpookyFrank said:
Los Angeles is living on borrowed time water-wise. Anyone would think a desert was god's way of saying "live somewhere else" :rolleyes:
Khartoum:

1DustCloudAP_468x312.jpg


Tashkent

800px-Tashkent_69.16604E_41.26162N.jpg

Silly buggers.:rolleyes:
 
Yossarian said:
Huckabee? No way - he's too stupid to ever become....uh....yeah, I think you could be right there...

Huckabee is probably good for the bible belt nutters but extremely worrying for anyone else with more than half a brain.
 
He's an idiot, and quite likely a dangerous idiot - but the people he's trying to win over elected George W. Bush. Twice.
 
soulman said:
I think if food prices (UK) continue to rise at the same rate they have for the last few months, then this could be a flashpoint.
I've been wondering about this too. I've never known a time like this where it seems everything's having 50p added to this, £1.00 added to that etc etc on a near month-by-month basis. The last 6 months of last year were utterly ridiculous and my monthly salary (frozen for years) now barely covers my rent, travel and food - and there's no hope of a significant wage increase on the horizon to counteract the effect.

However, nothing will happen because once the newspapers make noises about "ripoff Britain", it'll be the signal for the cod-left to shoot itself in the foot as usual and decide not to campaign on the issue - probably calling anyone who does a "daily mail whinger". :rolleyes: Then the liberal cod-environmentalists will say that food-price rises are "a good thing" to help reduce "wasteful consumption" in the west. Cue the far-right scooping up yet further support on the back of this fuckwittery ... :rolleyes: :mad:
 
poster342002 said:
I've been wondering about this too. I've never known a time like this where it seems everything's having 50p added to this, £1.00 added to that etc etc on a mear month-by-month basis. The last 6 months of last year were utterly ridiculous and my monthly salary (frozen for years) now barely covers my rent, travel and food - and there's no hope of a significant wage increase on the horizon to counteract the effect.

However, nothing will happen because once the newspapers make noises about "ripoff Britain", it'll be the signal for the cod-left to shoot itself in the foot as usual and decide not to campaign on the issue - probably calling anyone who does a "daily mail whinger". :rolleyes: Then the liberal cod-environmentalists will say that food-price rises are "a good thing" to help reduce "wasteful consumption" in the west. Cue the far-right scooping up yet further support on the back of this fuckwittery ... :rolleyes: :mad:

Sadly you may well be right.
 
poster342002 said:
I've been wondering about this too. I've never known a time like this where it seems everything's having 50p added to this, £1.00 added to that etc etc on a near month-by-month basis. The last 6 months of last year were utterly ridiculous and my monthly salary (frozen for years) now barely covers my rent, travel and food - and there's no hope of a significant wage increase on the horizon to counteract the effect.
The flashpoint in the UK will more likely be fuel prices, interest rates and unemployment than food.


poster342002 said:
However, nothing will happen because once the newspapers make noises about "ripoff Britain", it'll be the signal for the cod-left to shoot itself in the foot as usual and decide not to campaign on the issue - probably calling anyone who does a "daily mail whinger". :rolleyes: Then the liberal cod-environmentalists will say that food-price rises are "a good thing" to help reduce "wasteful consumption" in the west. Cue the far-right scooping up yet further support on the back of this fuckwittery ... :rolleyes: :mad:
There seems to be a lot of cod left then, I guess the fisharies commision is wrong. Seriously though I see alot of good analysis in the broadsheets without resorting to 'rip off Britain'. There are alot of people out there who understand what is going on, what is more likely to be the mantra for all economic ills this year is either "blame China" or "blame America"
 
There will be a crisis in the Middle East. Sadly a prediction that is so likely to come true I probably couldn't get odds for it at the bookies.
 
Back
Top Bottom