mhendo
Aussie in San Francisco
Well, it seems that there's not a whole bunch of baseball love to be had, but maybe a few of us can soldier on anyway. Most teams have now played about 32-33 games, meaning we're about one-fifth of the way through the season. It's been a very interesting five weeks of baseball, with quite a few surprises.
Let's start with the toughest division in baseball, the AL East, where the big-spending Yankees and Red Sox usually rule the roost, and where the upstart Rays had a great year in 2008. Incredibly, right now the Toronto Blue Jays sit atop the division with a 22-12 record. The unheralded Blue Jays are scoring over 6 runs per game, to lead all of baseball, and their pitching staff has been the fifth-best in the American league. They are 7-2 in one-run games, suggesting that they have been a little lucky, but they are only one game over their Expected Win-Loss (X W-L) based on runs scored and conceded. I've been watching and waiting for them to fall apart and become the fourth-place team that everyone expected, but it hasn't happened yet.
To be honest, i'd be quite happy to see them stay on top, if only because it ensures that the Yankees and the Red Sox aren't leading the division. If i were a betting man, though, i'd wager that they will give up first place for good sometime before the All-Star Break. They have benefited from a very easy start to the season, in terms of their schedule. As i said, the AL East is the toughest division in baseball, and Toronto has not yet faced the Yankees, the Red Sox, or the Rays. They play those three teams a combined total of 41 times over the second half of the season, and i think that's when they'll really start slipping back down the table.
Even right now, Boston is nipping on Toronto's heels, and while the Yankees are a further 4.5 games back, they should benefit considerably from the return of Alex Rodriguez, who came back into the line-up this week and promptly smashed the very first pitch he faced over the wall for a three-run home run. While the Yankees are a bit old and don't look as strong as Boston so far this year, having Rodriguez back makes them a considerably better team. Their pitching is the problem right now, giving up over 6 runs per game, but it seems that CC Sabathia is back on track after another slow start, so that figure should go down soon.
My Orioles are, predictably enough, bringing up the rear. While they're scoring some runs, they are also, as predicted, giving up a lot of runs, to the tune of almost 6 per game. Young guns Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have had incredible starts, and both are good enough to keep it up, but the pitching staff just isn't good enough for them to compete in this division.
The surprise, so far, are the Rays. They are languishing in fourth place, just a game and a half ahead of Baltimore. I don't think last year was a fluke, though, and they'll improve as the season goes on. They are also 3 games below their X W-L, and are 3-6 in one-run games, suggesting that they've been a bit unlucky.
In the AL Central, Detroit and Kansas City lead the pack. The Royals have done well, and have benefited from an incredible start by ace pitcher Zack Greinke, who has given up a total of 3 earned runs over 7 starts. His only loss was a 1-0 loss to the Angels, in which he pitched a complete game. The Tiwns and White Sox are three games back of the leaders, and the Cleveland Indians are bringing up the rear with the worst record in all of baseball, 11-21.
The AL West has been something of a roller coaster. The Oakland Athletics, who i predicted to win the division, are currently languishing at the bottom, with only 11 wins and 18 losses. Their young pitching staff has actually done a good job, and Oakland has given up fewer runs per game than any other AL team except Kansas City. Hitting, however, is a problem, with the A's third-last in the league in scoring runs. Big signings Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi have shown very little power, both slugging under .400. Holliday's numbers were always likely to fall a little after moving away from hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver, but he should be doing better than an OPS of .688.
The Seattle Mariners got away to a scorching start, and led the division for quite a while before a recent six-game losing streak dropped them back to third place. The LA Angels are in second, just half a game behind the Texas Rangers. Like the Orioles, the Rangers can swing the bats but have little in the way of quality starting pitchers, evidenced by the fact that they are third in runs scored, and fourth-worst in runs conceded. While winning games is about scoring more than the other team, it's hard for a team that consistently gives up a lot of runs to win a division.
Moving to the National League, after a slow start the New York Mets have just ridden a seven-game winning streak to take the division lead in the NL East. They are a game ahead of the Florida Marlins who, after a blazing 11-1 start, have fallen in a hole, going 6-14 over their last 20 games. The Phillies and Atlanta are only a game further back, with the hapless Washington Nationals comfortably in last place, where they are likely to stay for the rest of the season. The only real excitement to come out of Washington is that third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has a 28-game hitting streak going.
In the NL Central, the St. Louis Cardinals are off to a great start, riding the bat of Albert Pujols. Pujols has already hit 12 home runs, including two grand slams, and just continues to prove that he's simply the nest hitter in the game. He even has 4 stolen bases already this year, which is amazing for such a big man. The Milwaukee Brewers are in second place, closely followed by the Chicago Cubs, who seem to be getting up a head of steam after a fairly slow start. The Cincinnatti Reds are level with the Cubs, followed by the Houston Astros and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Neither of those last two teams are likely to compete in this division this year. I still think the Cubs can take the division, especially if Derrek Lee's recent return to hitting form is not just a flash in the pan.
Over here in the NL West, my home team San Diego Padres made a promising start to the season, but have lost 8 of their last 10 and are second-last in the division, just ahead of the Colorado Rockies. On the plus side, i've been to two Padres games this year, and they won both of them. The big news in the division was the amazing start of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not only are they leading the division by 4.5 games, but they won their first 13 homes games in a row.
The problem for the Dodgers, though, is the other piece of big news out of the NL West: the 50-game suspension handed out to Manny Ramirez this week after he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Ramirez has been easily the most productive hitter in the Dodgers' lineup, with 6 home runs and an OPS of 1.133. He now won't be back on the team until the beginning of July, and the Dodgers will have a hard time winning as many games in his absence. The only saving grace for them is that the NL West is such a weak division, so they might be able to hand onto the lead even with their best slugger sitting on the sidelines. The suspension also cost Ramirez more than $7 million of his massive salary.
The San Francisco Giants are currently second in the NL West, and are looking like they might be a bit of a threat in the division. Their big problem is hitting power; they have scored fewer runs than any other team in baseball, putting up just 3.52 runs per game. This doesn't really look like changing either, as they don't have a lineup known for its power. Luckily for the Giants, they are also giving up very few runs. Tim Lincecum is looking like an ace again, and even the disastrous Barry Zito has begun to look like a big league starter again over his last couple of outings. Whether Zito's good form continues, of reverts back to his truly abysmal 2008 level, remains to be seen, but if he can keep pitching well the Giants might have a chance in the weak division.
It's been a good season so far, with some outstanding performances, and some not so good. I'll finish my post with a link to one of the most exciting defensive plays of the year so far. Here's a video of Curtis Granderson robbing Grady Sizemore of a game-winning home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of Friday night's Detroit-Cleveland game. If Granderson missed the ball, Cleveland would have won 2-1; as it was, Detroit took the game 1-0.
Let's start with the toughest division in baseball, the AL East, where the big-spending Yankees and Red Sox usually rule the roost, and where the upstart Rays had a great year in 2008. Incredibly, right now the Toronto Blue Jays sit atop the division with a 22-12 record. The unheralded Blue Jays are scoring over 6 runs per game, to lead all of baseball, and their pitching staff has been the fifth-best in the American league. They are 7-2 in one-run games, suggesting that they have been a little lucky, but they are only one game over their Expected Win-Loss (X W-L) based on runs scored and conceded. I've been watching and waiting for them to fall apart and become the fourth-place team that everyone expected, but it hasn't happened yet.
To be honest, i'd be quite happy to see them stay on top, if only because it ensures that the Yankees and the Red Sox aren't leading the division. If i were a betting man, though, i'd wager that they will give up first place for good sometime before the All-Star Break. They have benefited from a very easy start to the season, in terms of their schedule. As i said, the AL East is the toughest division in baseball, and Toronto has not yet faced the Yankees, the Red Sox, or the Rays. They play those three teams a combined total of 41 times over the second half of the season, and i think that's when they'll really start slipping back down the table.
Even right now, Boston is nipping on Toronto's heels, and while the Yankees are a further 4.5 games back, they should benefit considerably from the return of Alex Rodriguez, who came back into the line-up this week and promptly smashed the very first pitch he faced over the wall for a three-run home run. While the Yankees are a bit old and don't look as strong as Boston so far this year, having Rodriguez back makes them a considerably better team. Their pitching is the problem right now, giving up over 6 runs per game, but it seems that CC Sabathia is back on track after another slow start, so that figure should go down soon.
My Orioles are, predictably enough, bringing up the rear. While they're scoring some runs, they are also, as predicted, giving up a lot of runs, to the tune of almost 6 per game. Young guns Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have had incredible starts, and both are good enough to keep it up, but the pitching staff just isn't good enough for them to compete in this division.
The surprise, so far, are the Rays. They are languishing in fourth place, just a game and a half ahead of Baltimore. I don't think last year was a fluke, though, and they'll improve as the season goes on. They are also 3 games below their X W-L, and are 3-6 in one-run games, suggesting that they've been a bit unlucky.
In the AL Central, Detroit and Kansas City lead the pack. The Royals have done well, and have benefited from an incredible start by ace pitcher Zack Greinke, who has given up a total of 3 earned runs over 7 starts. His only loss was a 1-0 loss to the Angels, in which he pitched a complete game. The Tiwns and White Sox are three games back of the leaders, and the Cleveland Indians are bringing up the rear with the worst record in all of baseball, 11-21.
The AL West has been something of a roller coaster. The Oakland Athletics, who i predicted to win the division, are currently languishing at the bottom, with only 11 wins and 18 losses. Their young pitching staff has actually done a good job, and Oakland has given up fewer runs per game than any other AL team except Kansas City. Hitting, however, is a problem, with the A's third-last in the league in scoring runs. Big signings Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi have shown very little power, both slugging under .400. Holliday's numbers were always likely to fall a little after moving away from hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver, but he should be doing better than an OPS of .688.
The Seattle Mariners got away to a scorching start, and led the division for quite a while before a recent six-game losing streak dropped them back to third place. The LA Angels are in second, just half a game behind the Texas Rangers. Like the Orioles, the Rangers can swing the bats but have little in the way of quality starting pitchers, evidenced by the fact that they are third in runs scored, and fourth-worst in runs conceded. While winning games is about scoring more than the other team, it's hard for a team that consistently gives up a lot of runs to win a division.
Moving to the National League, after a slow start the New York Mets have just ridden a seven-game winning streak to take the division lead in the NL East. They are a game ahead of the Florida Marlins who, after a blazing 11-1 start, have fallen in a hole, going 6-14 over their last 20 games. The Phillies and Atlanta are only a game further back, with the hapless Washington Nationals comfortably in last place, where they are likely to stay for the rest of the season. The only real excitement to come out of Washington is that third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has a 28-game hitting streak going.
In the NL Central, the St. Louis Cardinals are off to a great start, riding the bat of Albert Pujols. Pujols has already hit 12 home runs, including two grand slams, and just continues to prove that he's simply the nest hitter in the game. He even has 4 stolen bases already this year, which is amazing for such a big man. The Milwaukee Brewers are in second place, closely followed by the Chicago Cubs, who seem to be getting up a head of steam after a fairly slow start. The Cincinnatti Reds are level with the Cubs, followed by the Houston Astros and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Neither of those last two teams are likely to compete in this division this year. I still think the Cubs can take the division, especially if Derrek Lee's recent return to hitting form is not just a flash in the pan.
Over here in the NL West, my home team San Diego Padres made a promising start to the season, but have lost 8 of their last 10 and are second-last in the division, just ahead of the Colorado Rockies. On the plus side, i've been to two Padres games this year, and they won both of them. The big news in the division was the amazing start of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not only are they leading the division by 4.5 games, but they won their first 13 homes games in a row.
The problem for the Dodgers, though, is the other piece of big news out of the NL West: the 50-game suspension handed out to Manny Ramirez this week after he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Ramirez has been easily the most productive hitter in the Dodgers' lineup, with 6 home runs and an OPS of 1.133. He now won't be back on the team until the beginning of July, and the Dodgers will have a hard time winning as many games in his absence. The only saving grace for them is that the NL West is such a weak division, so they might be able to hand onto the lead even with their best slugger sitting on the sidelines. The suspension also cost Ramirez more than $7 million of his massive salary.
The San Francisco Giants are currently second in the NL West, and are looking like they might be a bit of a threat in the division. Their big problem is hitting power; they have scored fewer runs than any other team in baseball, putting up just 3.52 runs per game. This doesn't really look like changing either, as they don't have a lineup known for its power. Luckily for the Giants, they are also giving up very few runs. Tim Lincecum is looking like an ace again, and even the disastrous Barry Zito has begun to look like a big league starter again over his last couple of outings. Whether Zito's good form continues, of reverts back to his truly abysmal 2008 level, remains to be seen, but if he can keep pitching well the Giants might have a chance in the weak division.
It's been a good season so far, with some outstanding performances, and some not so good. I'll finish my post with a link to one of the most exciting defensive plays of the year so far. Here's a video of Curtis Granderson robbing Grady Sizemore of a game-winning home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of Friday night's Detroit-Cleveland game. If Granderson missed the ball, Cleveland would have won 2-1; as it was, Detroit took the game 1-0.
